| | | | | Commentary | | The Straits Times index gained 0.38% or 11.5pts to 3078.03 (day range: 3091.28 - 3067.14) on Thursday. The index is above its 20d MA (@ 3038) and above its 50d MA (@ 2973). 77% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 63% the previous session) and 83% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 77%). On a daily basis, the index remains above its rising 20-day moving average, and is expected to look for a higher top. The rising 50-day moving average also maintains a bullish bias. Meanwhile, the relative strength index is still above its neutrality area at 50 and lacks downward momentum. The ST outlook remains bullish: as long as 3015 is not broken down, further upside is preferred in the short term. The HSI index rose 0.17% or 40.01pts to 23525.14 (day range: 23644.63 - 23489.65) on Thursday. The index is above its 20d MA (@ 23112) and above its 50d MA (@ 22649). 84% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 86% the previous session) and 86% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 86%). Trading volume on the index was high, 60.7% above the 3 months average. On the daily chart, the index is rebounding on its rising 20-day moving average, which remains above the 50-day one. Meanwhile the relative strength index has broken above a negative trend line, and stays above the neutrality area at 50. Therefore, as long as the index stays above 22800, expect further bounce toward 24050 and 24400 (September 2016 high) in extension. |
| Straits Times Intraday: the upside prevails. |  | Pivot: 3064.00
Our preference: long positions above 3064.00 with targets at 3100.00 & 3110.00 in extension.
Alternative scenario: below 3064.00 look for further downside with 3040.00 & 3030.00 as targets.
Comment: even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.
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| |  | | Opinion published is a ST (short-term) view. Green Lines Represent Resistance | Red Represents Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point | Black represents the price when the report was produced | | Associated Warrants for Straits Times |
| Type | Strike | Expiry | Delta | Ticker | Issuer | Name | Risk | Conv ratio | Eff. Gearing | | Call | 3000.00 | 28/04/2017 | 0.6 | CBVW | Macquarie Bank | STI MBL ECW170428% | Medium risk | 2500.0 % | 11.9 % | | Call | 2900.00 | 28/04/2017 | 0.7 | CBUW | Macquarie Bank | STI MBL ECW170428% | Low risk | 2500.0 % | 10.6 % | | Put | 2850.00 | 28/04/2017 | -0.3 | CBWW | Macquarie Bank | STI MBL EPW170428% | High risk | 2500.0 % | 11.9 % | | Put | 2950.00 | 28/04/2017 | -0.4 | CBXW | Macquarie Bank | STI MBL EPW170428% | High risk | 2500.0 % | 11.7 % |
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| Hang Seng Intraday: further advance. | | Pivot: 23350
Our preference: long positions above 23350 with targets at 23650 & 23800 in extension.
Alternative scenario: below 23350 look for further downside with 23200 & 23100 as targets.
Comment: the RSI broke above a declining trend line.
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| |  | | Opinion published is a ST (short-term) view. Green Lines Represent Resistance | Red Represents Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point | Black represents the price when the report was produced | | Associated Warrants for Hang Seng |
| Type | Strike | Expiry | Delta | Ticker | Issuer | Name | Risk | Conv ratio | Eff. Gearing | | Call | 24200.00 | 27/04/2017 | 0.4 | CCUW | Macquarie Bank | HSI MBL ECW170427% | High risk | 1000.0 % | 14.5 % | | Call | 23800.00 | 30/03/2017 | 0.4 | CCFW | Macquarie Bank | HSI MBL ECW170330% | High risk | 1000.0 % | 15.6 % | | Call | 23000.00 | 30/03/2017 | 0.6 | CCEW | Macquarie Bank | HSI MBL ECW170330% | Medium risk | 1000.0 % | 13.4 % | | Put | 22400.00 | 30/03/2017 | -0.3 | CCHW | Macquarie Bank | HSI MBL EPW170330% | High risk | 1000.0 % | 18.4 % | | Put | 22600.00 | 29/05/2017 | -0.4 | CECW | Bank Vontobel | HSI VT EPW170529% | Medium risk | 1000.0 % | 13.8 % | | Put | 22400.00 | 30/03/2017 | -0.3 | CCHW | Macquarie Bank | HSI MBL EPW170330% | High risk | 1000.0 % | 18.4 % |
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| S&P 500 Intraday: further upside. | | Pivot: 2300.00
Our preference: long positions above 2300.00 with targets at 2320.00 & 2330.00 in extension.
Alternative scenario: below 2300.00 look for further downside with 2294.00 & 2286.00 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is bullish and calls for further advance. Prices have escaped from a broadening formation. The 2300 mark is now expected to play a support role.
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| |  | | Opinion published is a ST (short-term) view. Green Lines Represent Resistance | Red Represents Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point | Black represents the price when the report was produced | | Associated Warrants for S&P 500 |
| Type | Strike | Expiry | Delta | Ticker | Issuer | Name | Risk | Conv ratio | Eff. Gearing | | Call | 2280.00 | 17/03/2017 | 0.5 | CAXW | Macquarie Bank | S&P 500 MBL ECW170317% | Medium risk | 800.0 % | 17.3 % | | Call | 2280.00 | 17/03/2017 | 0.5 | CAXW | Macquarie Bank | S&P 500 MBL ECW170317% | Medium risk | 800.0 % | 17.3 % | | Put | 2130.00 | 17/03/2017 | -0.3 | CAZW | Macquarie Bank | S&P 500 MBL EPW170317% | High risk | 800.0 % | 16.4 % | | Put | 2200.00 | 16/06/2017 | -0.5 | CDIW | Macquarie Bank | S&P 500 MBL EPW170616% | Low risk | 800.0 % | 10.7 % |
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 | MA (50) & MA (20): The most simple trend indicators are Moving Averages. They simply correspond to an average calculated on an evolving time scale (20 and 50 periods): every day, the oldest value (often taken at the close) in the average calculus is replaced by the value of the new session.
Bollinger bands: are represented by 3 different bands and are derived from moving averages. The middle band corresponds to a simple moving average (MA (20)). The level of the upper band, in every point, corresponds to the sum of the level of the middle band and twice the value of the standard deviation associated to the 20-day moving average. Reciprocally, the level of the lower band corresponds to the level of the middle band diminished by twice the value of the standard deviation associated to the 20-day moving average. An envelop of the stock price is thus determined. This makes it possible to then identify the variation margin in which the stock should stay almost systematically. In the case of a stock following a Gauss law, 95 % of the trades will thus occur between these bands.
RSI (14): the Relative Strength Index aims at establishing a reference scale independently from the stock prices levels themselves. As the RSI has boundaries (0 and 100), it then becomes very easy to determine overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. In addition, just as on prices themselves, supports and resistances can appear, especially when nearing the neutrality zone (near 50). Thus, the RSI is one of the most commonly used counter-trend indicators.
It is based on the average of rises and drops of price, with the formula:
RSI = 100 - [100 / (1 + RS)]
Where RS represents the average of up closes divided by the average of down closes on the considered period (14). | |
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