| | | | | Commentary | | The Straits Times index dropped 0.75% or 23.09pts to 3044.4 (day range: 3068.48 - 3036.76) on Thursday. The index is above its 20d MA (@ 3018) and above its 50d MA (@ 2952). 63% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 80% the previous session) and 73% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 87%). On a daily basis, the index stays above its horizontal support at 2990, while the 20-day moving average remains above the 50-day one. And the relative strength index is still above its neutrality area at 50. Even though a continuation of the consolidation in current stage cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited. The ST outlook remains bullish: as long as 2990 is not broken down, further upside is preferred in the short term. The HSI index fell 0.57% or 133.87pts to 23184.52 (day range: 23439.02 - 23131.37) on Thursday. The index is above its 20d MA (@ 22891) and above its 50d MA (@ 22566). 77% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 86% the previous session) and 79% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 79%). On the daily chart, the index has broken above a descending trend line, and the 20-day moving average is crossing above the 50-day one. Meanwhile the relative strength index has broken above a negative trend line, and stays above the neutrality area at 50. Therefore, as long as the index stays above 22800, expect further bounce toward 23650 at first. |
| Straits Times Intraday: turning down. |  | Pivot: 3060.00
Our preference: short positions below 3060.00 with targets at 3030.00 & 3025.00 in extension.
Alternative scenario: above 3060.00 look for further upside with 3075.00 & 3090.00 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is bearish and calls for further downside.
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| |  | | Opinion published is a ST (short-term) view. Green Lines Represent Resistance | Red Represents Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point | Black represents the price when the report was produced | | Associated Warrants for Straits Times |
| Type | Strike | Expiry | Delta | Ticker | Issuer | Name | Risk | Conv ratio | Eff. Gearing | | Put | 2850.00 | 28/04/2017 | -0.3 | CBWW | Macquarie Bank | STI MBL EPW170428% | High risk | 2500.0 % | 9.4 % | | Put | 2950.00 | 28/04/2017 | -0.4 | CBXW | Macquarie Bank | STI MBL EPW170428% | High risk | 2500.0 % | 9.9 % | | Call | 3000.00 | 28/04/2017 | 0.5 | CBVW | Macquarie Bank | STI MBL ECW170428% | Medium risk | 2500.0 % | 10.0 % | | Call | 2950.00 | 28/02/2017 | 0.7 | BYMW | Macquarie Bank | STI MBL ECW170228% | Low risk | 2500.0 % | 15.5 % |
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| Hang Seng Intraday: choppy. | | Pivot: 23400
Our preference: short positions below 23400 with targets at 23050 & 22950 in extension.
Alternative scenario: above 23400 look for further upside with 23500 & 23650 as targets.
Comment: as long as 23400 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.
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| |  | | Opinion published is a ST (short-term) view. Green Lines Represent Resistance | Red Represents Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point | Black represents the price when the report was produced | | Associated Warrants for Hang Seng |
| Type | Strike | Expiry | Delta | Ticker | Issuer | Name | Risk | Conv ratio | Eff. Gearing | | Put | 22400.00 | 30/03/2017 | -0.4 | CCHW | Macquarie Bank | HSI MBL EPW170330% | High risk | 1000.0 % | 17.4 % | | Put | 22600.00 | 29/05/2017 | -0.4 | CECW | Bank Vontobel | HSI VT EPW170529% | Medium risk | 1000.0 % | 11.9 % | | Put | 22000.00 | 30/03/2017 | -0.3 | CDUW | Bank Vontobel | HSI VT EPW170330% | High risk | 1000.0 % | 17.5 % | | Call | 22600.00 | 27/02/2017 | 0.6 | CBYW | Macquarie Bank | HSI MBL ECW170227% | Medium risk | 1000.0 % | 15.7 % | | Call | 22400.00 | 30/03/2017 | 0.6 | CARW | UBS | HSI UBS ECW170330% | Medium risk | 1000.0 % | 11.2 % | | Call | 23000.00 | 30/03/2017 | 0.5 | CCEW | Macquarie Bank | HSI MBL ECW170330% | Medium risk | 1000.0 % | 12.8 % |
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| DBS Group Intraday: under pressure. | | Pivot: 18.95
Our preference: short positions below 18.95 with targets at 18.60 & 18.45 in extension.
Alternative scenario: above 18.95 look for further upside with 19.03 & 19.20 as targets.
Comment: the RSI advocates for further downside.
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| |  | | Opinion published is a ST (short-term) view. Green Lines Represent Resistance | Red Represents Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point | Black represents the price when the report was produced | | Associated Warrants for DBS Group |
| Type | Strike | Expiry | Delta | Ticker | Issuer | Name | Risk | Conv ratio | Eff. Gearing | | Put | 18.00 | 02/10/2017 | 0.5 | CBNW | Macquarie Bank | DBS GROUP MBL EPW171002% | Medium risk | 8.0 % | 5.9 % | | Put | 16.50 | 03/07/2017 | 0.65 | CBEW | Macquarie Bank | DBS GROUP MBL EPW170703% | Low risk | 8.0 % | 22.4 % | | Call | 19.50 | 10/07/2017 | 0.3 | CBJW | Macquarie Bank | DBS GROUP MBL ECW170710% | Medium risk | 8.0 % | 6.0 % | | Call | 18.00 | 03/07/2017 | 0.5 | CBDW | Macquarie Bank | DBS GROUP MBL ECW170703% | Low risk | 8.0 % | 5.0 % |
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 | MA (50) & MA (20): The most simple trend indicators are Moving Averages. They simply correspond to an average calculated on an evolving time scale (20 and 50 periods): every day, the oldest value (often taken at the close) in the average calculus is replaced by the value of the new session.
Bollinger bands: are represented by 3 different bands and are derived from moving averages. The middle band corresponds to a simple moving average (MA (20)). The level of the upper band, in every point, corresponds to the sum of the level of the middle band and twice the value of the standard deviation associated to the 20-day moving average. Reciprocally, the level of the lower band corresponds to the level of the middle band diminished by twice the value of the standard deviation associated to the 20-day moving average. An envelop of the stock price is thus determined. This makes it possible to then identify the variation margin in which the stock should stay almost systematically. In the case of a stock following a Gauss law, 95 % of the trades will thus occur between these bands.
RSI (14): the Relative Strength Index aims at establishing a reference scale independently from the stock prices levels themselves. As the RSI has boundaries (0 and 100), it then becomes very easy to determine overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. In addition, just as on prices themselves, supports and resistances can appear, especially when nearing the neutrality zone (near 50). Thus, the RSI is one of the most commonly used counter-trend indicators.
It is based on the average of rises and drops of price, with the formula:
RSI = 100 - [100 / (1 + RS)]
Where RS represents the average of up closes divided by the average of down closes on the considered period (14). | |
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