| | | | | Commentary | | Singapore market is closed on Monday for Chinese New Year. The Straits Times index gained 0.43% or 13.07pts to 3067.85 (day range: 3054.64 - 3065.13) on Friday. The index is above its 20d MA (@ 2994) and above its 50d MA (@ 2937). 77% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 80% the previous session) and 80% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 80%). On a daily basis, the index stands firmly above its horizontal support at 2990, and is looking for a higher top. The 20-day moving average stays above the 50-day one, and the relative strength index remains above 50. The ST outlook remains bullish: as long as 2990 is not broken down, further upside is preferred in the short term. Hong Kong markets are closed on Monday and Tuesday for Lunar New Year. The HSI index was flat on Friday. The index is above its 20d MA (@ 22773) and above its 50d MA (@ 22527). 91% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 91% the previous session) and 81% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 77%). On the daily chart, the index has broken above a descending trend line, and the 20-day moving average is crossing above the 50-day one. Meanwhile the relative strength index has broken above a negative trend line, and stays well above 50. Therefore, as long as the index stays above 22800, expect further bounce toward 23650 at first. |
| Straits Times Intraday: the upside prevails. |  | Pivot: 3050.00
Our preference: long positions above 3050.00 with targets at 3080.00 & 3090.00 in extension.
Alternative scenario: below 3050.00 look for further downside with 3035.00 & 3025.00 as targets.
Comment: the RSI shows upside momentum.
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| |  | | Opinion published is a ST (short-term) view. Green Lines Represent Resistance | Red Represents Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point | Black represents the price when the report was produced | | Associated Warrants for Straits Times |
| Type | Strike | Expiry | Delta | Ticker | Issuer | Name | Risk | Conv ratio | Eff. Gearing | | Call | 3000.00 | 28/04/2017 | 0.6 | CBVW | Macquarie Bank | STI MBL ECW170428% | Medium risk | 2500.0 % | 11.0 % | | Call | 2950.00 | 28/02/2017 | 0.7 | BYMW | Macquarie Bank | STI MBL ECW170228% | Low risk | 2500.0 % | 14.3 % | | Put | 2850.00 | 28/04/2017 | -0.3 | CBWW | Macquarie Bank | STI MBL EPW170428% | High risk | 2500.0 % | 9.7 % | | Put | 2950.00 | 28/04/2017 | -0.4 | CBXW | Macquarie Bank | STI MBL EPW170428% | High risk | 2500.0 % | 10.0 % |
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| Hang Seng Intraday: the bias remains bullish. | | Pivot: 23275
Our preference: long positions above 23275 with targets at 23500 & 23650 in extension.
Alternative scenario: below 23275 look for further downside with 23050 & 22850 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is mixed with a bullish bias. The market was closed to celebrate the "Day after the Lunar New Year".
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| |  | | Opinion published is a ST (short-term) view. Green Lines Represent Resistance | Red Represents Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point | Black represents the price when the report was produced | | Associated Warrants for Hang Seng |
| Type | Strike | Expiry | Delta | Ticker | Issuer | Name | Risk | Conv ratio | Eff. Gearing | | Call | 22600.00 | 27/02/2017 | 0.7 | CBYW | Macquarie Bank | HSI MBL ECW170227% | Low risk | 1000.0 % | 15.0 % | | Call | 22400.00 | 30/03/2017 | 0.7 | CARW | UBS | HSI UBS ECW170330% | Low risk | 1000.0 % | 13.4 % | | Call | 23000.00 | 30/03/2017 | 0.6 | CCEW | Macquarie Bank | HSI MBL ECW170330% | Medium risk | 1000.0 % | 12.9 % | | Put | 22400.00 | 30/03/2017 | -0.3 | CCHW | Macquarie Bank | HSI MBL EPW170330% | High risk | 1000.0 % | 14.2 % | | Put | 22600.00 | 29/05/2017 | -0.4 | CECW | Bank Vontobel | HSI VT EPW170529% | Medium risk | 1000.0 % | 12.7 % | | Put | 22000.00 | 30/03/2017 | -0.3 | CDUW | Bank Vontobel | HSI VT EPW170330% | High risk | 1000.0 % | 17.6 % |
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| DBS Group Intraday: the upside prevails. | | Pivot: 18.95
Our preference: long positions above 18.95 with targets at 19.30 & 19.41 in extension.
Alternative scenario: below 18.95 look for further downside with 18.80 & 18.63 as targets.
Comment: the RSI advocates for further advance.
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| |  | | Opinion published is a ST (short-term) view. Green Lines Represent Resistance | Red Represents Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point | Black represents the price when the report was produced | | Associated Warrants for DBS Group |
| Type | Strike | Expiry | Delta | Ticker | Issuer | Name | Risk | Conv ratio | Eff. Gearing | | Call | 19.50 | 10/07/2017 | 0.5 | CBJW | Macquarie Bank | DBS GROUP MBL ECW170710% | Low risk | 8.0 % | 8.6 % | | Call | 18.00 | 03/07/2017 | 0.65 | CBDW | Macquarie Bank | DBS GROUP MBL ECW170703% | Low risk | 8.0 % | 6.6 % | | Put | 18.00 | 02/10/2017 | -0.5 | CBNW | Macquarie Bank | DBS GROUP MBL EPW171002% | Medium risk | 8.0 % | 4.8 % | | Put | 16.50 | 03/07/2017 | -0.3 | CBEW | Macquarie Bank | DBS GROUP MBL EPW170703% | Medium risk | 8.0 % | 10.9 % |
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 | MA (50) & MA (20): The most simple trend indicators are Moving Averages. They simply correspond to an average calculated on an evolving time scale (20 and 50 periods): every day, the oldest value (often taken at the close) in the average calculus is replaced by the value of the new session.
Bollinger bands: are represented by 3 different bands and are derived from moving averages. The middle band corresponds to a simple moving average (MA (20)). The level of the upper band, in every point, corresponds to the sum of the level of the middle band and twice the value of the standard deviation associated to the 20-day moving average. Reciprocally, the level of the lower band corresponds to the level of the middle band diminished by twice the value of the standard deviation associated to the 20-day moving average. An envelop of the stock price is thus determined. This makes it possible to then identify the variation margin in which the stock should stay almost systematically. In the case of a stock following a Gauss law, 95 % of the trades will thus occur between these bands.
RSI (14): the Relative Strength Index aims at establishing a reference scale independently from the stock prices levels themselves. As the RSI has boundaries (0 and 100), it then becomes very easy to determine overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. In addition, just as on prices themselves, supports and resistances can appear, especially when nearing the neutrality zone (near 50). Thus, the RSI is one of the most commonly used counter-trend indicators.
It is based on the average of rises and drops of price, with the formula:
RSI = 100 - [100 / (1 + RS)]
Where RS represents the average of up closes divided by the average of down closes on the considered period (14). | |
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