| | | | | Commentary | | The Straits Times index fell 0.45% or 14.15pts to 3122.33 (day range: 3125.1 - 3104.33) on Friday. The index is above its 20d MA (@ 3100) and above its 50d MA (@ 3029). 50% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 60% the previous session) and 77% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 80%). Trading volume on the index was high, 44.7% above the 3 months average. On a daily basis, the index is again pulling back to test the support of its rising 20-day moving average. The rising 50-day moving average also maintains a bullish bias. Meanwhile, the relative strength index is still above its neutrality area at 50. The ST outlook remains bullish: as long as 3060 is not broken down, further upside is preferred in the short term. The HSI index fell 0.74% or 175.35pts to 23552.72 (day range: 23635.24 - 23511.6) on Friday. The index is below its 20d MA (@ 23797) and above its 50d MA (@ 23063). 35% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 51% the previous session) and 81% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 86%). On the daily chart, the index has broken below its rising 20-day moving average, which allows for further consolidation. However, the 50-day moving average is still rising and should play a support role. Meanwhile the relative strength index has just landed on the neutrality area at 50. To conclude, as long as the index stays above the key support at 23290, expect further bounce toward 24400 (September 2016 high). |
| Straits Times Intraday: key resistance at 3123.00. |  | Pivot: 3123.00
Our preference: short positions below 3123.00 with targets at 3112.00 & 3105.00 in extension.
Alternative scenario: above 3123.00 look for further upside with 3137.00 & 3147.00 as targets.
Comment: intraday technical indicators are mixed and call for caution.
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| |  | | Opinion published is a ST (short-term) view. Green Lines Represent Resistance | Red Represents Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point | Black represents the price when the report was produced | | Associated Warrants for Straits Times |
| Type | Strike | Expiry | Delta | Ticker | Issuer | Name | Risk | Conv ratio | Eff. Gearing | | Put | 2950.00 | 28/04/2017 | -0.3 | CBXW | Macquarie Bank | STI MBL EPW170428% | High risk | 2500.0 % | 12.5 % | | Put | 2900.00 | 30/06/2017 | -0.3 | CDMW | Macquarie Bank | STI MBL EPW170630% | Medium risk | 2500.0 % | 9.1 % | | Call | 3000.00 | 28/04/2017 | 0.7 | CBVW | Macquarie Bank | STI MBL ECW170428% | Low risk | 2500.0 % | 13.2 % | | Call | 3050.00 | 30/06/2017 | 0.6 | CDKW | Macquarie Bank | STI MBL ECW170630% | Low risk | 2500.0 % | 10.4 % |
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| Hang Seng Intraday: under pressure. | | Pivot: 23740
Our preference: short positions below 23740 with targets at 23430 & 23230 in extension.
Alternative scenario: above 23740 look for further upside with 23920 & 24060 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is mixed to bearish.
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| |  | | Opinion published is a ST (short-term) view. Green Lines Represent Resistance | Red Represents Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point | Black represents the price when the report was produced | | Associated Warrants for Hang Seng |
| Type | Strike | Expiry | Delta | Ticker | Issuer | Name | Risk | Conv ratio | Eff. Gearing | | Put | 22600.00 | 29/05/2017 | -0.3 | CECW | Bank Vontobel | HSI VT EPW170529% | High risk | 1000.0 % | 12.4 % | | Put | 23200.00 | 30/03/2017 | -0.4 | CEOW | Macquarie Bank | HSI MBL EPW170330% | High risk | 1000.0 % | 22.9 % | | Put | 22800.00 | 27/04/2017 | -0.4 | CENW | Macquarie Bank | HSI MBL EPW170427% | High risk | 1000.0 % | 16.7 % | | Call | 24200.00 | 27/04/2017 | 0.4 | CCUW | Macquarie Bank | HSI MBL ECW170427% | High risk | 1000.0 % | 18.3 % | | Call | 23800.00 | 30/03/2017 | 0.4 | CCFW | Macquarie Bank | HSI MBL ECW170330% | High risk | 1000.0 % | 20.9 % | | Call | 23000.00 | 30/03/2017 | 0.6 | CCEW | Macquarie Bank | HSI MBL ECW170330% | Medium risk | 1000.0 % | 11.0 % |
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| S&P 500 Intraday: consolidation. | | Pivot: 2388.00
Our preference: short positions below 2388.00 with targets at 2372.00 & 2366.00 in extension.
Alternative scenario: above 2388.00 look for further upside with 2393.50 & 2400.00 as targets.
Comment: the RSI lacks upward momentum.
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| |  | | Opinion published is a ST (short-term) view. Green Lines Represent Resistance | Red Represents Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point | Black represents the price when the report was produced | | Associated Warrants for S&P 500 |
| Type | Strike | Expiry | Delta | Ticker | Issuer | Name | Risk | Conv ratio | Eff. Gearing | | Call | 2500.00 | 15/09/2017 | 0.4 | CDDW | Macquarie Bank | S&P 500 MBL ECW170915% | Medium risk | 800.0 % | 10.9 % | | Call | 2500.00 | 15/09/2017 | 0.4 | CDDW | Macquarie Bank | S&P 500 MBL ECW170915% | Medium risk | 800.0 % | 10.9 % | | Put | 2200.00 | 16/06/2017 | -0.4 | CDIW | Macquarie Bank | S&P 500 MBL EPW170616% | Medium risk | 800.0 % | 18.9 % | | Put | 2200.00 | 16/06/2017 | -0.4 | CDIW | Macquarie Bank | S&P 500 MBL EPW170616% | Medium risk | 800.0 % | 18.9 % |
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 | MA (50) & MA (20): The most simple trend indicators are Moving Averages. They simply correspond to an average calculated on an evolving time scale (20 and 50 periods): every day, the oldest value (often taken at the close) in the average calculus is replaced by the value of the new session.
Bollinger bands: are represented by 3 different bands and are derived from moving averages. The middle band corresponds to a simple moving average (MA (20)). The level of the upper band, in every point, corresponds to the sum of the level of the middle band and twice the value of the standard deviation associated to the 20-day moving average. Reciprocally, the level of the lower band corresponds to the level of the middle band diminished by twice the value of the standard deviation associated to the 20-day moving average. An envelop of the stock price is thus determined. This makes it possible to then identify the variation margin in which the stock should stay almost systematically. In the case of a stock following a Gauss law, 95 % of the trades will thus occur between these bands.
RSI (14): the Relative Strength Index aims at establishing a reference scale independently from the stock prices levels themselves. As the RSI has boundaries (0 and 100), it then becomes very easy to determine overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. In addition, just as on prices themselves, supports and resistances can appear, especially when nearing the neutrality zone (near 50). Thus, the RSI is one of the most commonly used counter-trend indicators.
It is based on the average of rises and drops of price, with the formula:
RSI = 100 - [100 / (1 + RS)]
Where RS represents the average of up closes divided by the average of down closes on the considered period (14). | |
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