| | | | | Commentary | | The Straits Times index fell 0.84% or 26.45pts to 3118.84 (day range: 3137.19 - 3114.67) on Thursday. The index is above its 20d MA (@ 3112) and above its 50d MA (@ 3048). 60% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 80% the previous session) and 73% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 77%). On a daily basis, the index is again testing the support of its rising 20-day moving average. The rising 50-day moving average also maintains a bullish bias. Meanwhile, the relative strength index is still above its neutrality area at 50. The ST outlook remains bullish: as long as 3075 is not broken down, further upside is preferred in the short term. The HSI index fell 1.18% or 280.71pts to 23501.56 (day range: 23673.58 - 23456.06) on Thursday. The index is below its 20d MA (@ 23840) and above its 50d MA (@ 23214). 37% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 56% the previous session) and 72% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 86%). On the daily chart, the index is continuing its pullback, and is expected to test the horizontal support at 23290 in coming days. However, the 50-day moving average is still rising and should also play a support role. Even though a continuation of the consolidation in current stage cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited. As long as the index stays above the key support at 23290, expect further bounce toward 24250. |
| Straits Times Intraday: turning down. |  | Pivot: 3150.00
Our preference: short positions below 3150.00 with targets at 3105.00 & 3096.00 in extension.
Alternative scenario: above 3150.00 look for further upside with 3160.00 & 3170.00 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is bearish and calls for further downside.
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| |  | | Opinion published is a ST (short-term) view. Green Lines Represent Resistance | Red Represents Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point | Black represents the price when the report was produced | | Associated Warrants for Straits Times |
| Type | Strike | Expiry | Delta | Ticker | Issuer | Name | Risk | Conv ratio | Eff. Gearing | | Put | 2950.00 | 28/04/2017 | -0.3 | CBXW | Macquarie Bank | STI MBL EPW170428% | High risk | 2500.0 % | 15.6 % | | Put | 2900.00 | 30/06/2017 | -0.3 | CDMW | Macquarie Bank | STI MBL EPW170630% | Medium risk | 2500.0 % | 9.1 % | | Call | 3000.00 | 28/04/2017 | 0.7 | CBVW | Macquarie Bank | STI MBL ECW170428% | Low risk | 2500.0 % | 13.2 % | | Call | 3050.00 | 30/06/2017 | 0.6 | CDKW | Macquarie Bank | STI MBL ECW170630% | Low risk | 2500.0 % | 10.4 % |
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| Hang Seng Intraday: under pressure. | | Pivot: 23670
Our preference: short positions below 23670 with targets at 23450 & 23350 in extension.
Alternative scenario: above 23670 look for further upside with 23800 & 23920 as targets.
Comment: as long as 23670 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.
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| |  | | Opinion published is a ST (short-term) view. Green Lines Represent Resistance | Red Represents Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point | Black represents the price when the report was produced | | Associated Warrants for Hang Seng |
| Type | Strike | Expiry | Delta | Ticker | Issuer | Name | Risk | Conv ratio | Eff. Gearing | | Put | 22600.00 | 29/05/2017 | -0.3 | CECW | Bank Vontobel | HSI VT EPW170529% | High risk | 1000.0 % | 13.0 % | | Put | 23200.00 | 30/03/2017 | -0.4 | CEOW | Macquarie Bank | HSI MBL EPW170330% | High risk | 1000.0 % | 24.6 % | | Put | 22800.00 | 27/04/2017 | -0.4 | CENW | Macquarie Bank | HSI MBL EPW170427% | High risk | 1000.0 % | 17.5 % | | Call | 24200.00 | 27/04/2017 | 0.4 | CCUW | Macquarie Bank | HSI MBL ECW170427% | High risk | 1000.0 % | 21.0 % | | Call | 23800.00 | 30/03/2017 | 0.4 | CCFW | Macquarie Bank | HSI MBL ECW170330% | High risk | 1000.0 % | 26.9 % | | Call | 23000.00 | 30/03/2017 | 0.6 | CCEW | Macquarie Bank | HSI MBL ECW170330% | Medium risk | 1000.0 % | 11.0 % |
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| United Overseas Bank Intraday: under pressure. | | Pivot: 21.54
Our preference: short positions below 21.54 with targets at 21.27 & 21.18 in extension.
Alternative scenario: above 21.54 look for further upside with 21.63 & 21.74 as targets.
Comment: the RSI advocates for further decline.
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| |  | | Opinion published is a ST (short-term) view. Green Lines Represent Resistance | Red Represents Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point | Black represents the price when the report was produced | | Associated Warrants for United Overseas Bank |
| Type | Strike | Expiry | Delta | Ticker | Issuer | Name | Risk | Conv ratio | Eff. Gearing | | Put | 19.00 | 03/07/2017 | -0.3 | CBGW | Macquarie Bank | UNITED OVERSEAS BANK MBL EPW170703% | Medium risk | 12.0 % | 11.6 % | | Put | 20.00 | 02/10/2017 | -0.5 | CBQW | Macquarie Bank | UNITED OVERSEAS BANK MBL EPW171002% | Medium risk | 12.0 % | 7.3 % | | Call | 21.00 | 03/07/2017 | 0.4 | CBFW | Macquarie Bank | UNITED OVERSEAS BANK MBL ECW170703% | Medium risk | 12.0 % | 6.1 % | | Call | 19.50 | 05/06/2017 | 0.6 | BZYW | Macquarie Bank | UNITED OVERSEAS BANK MBL ECW170605% | Medium risk | 12.0 % | 5.2 % |
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 | MA (50) & MA (20): The most simple trend indicators are Moving Averages. They simply correspond to an average calculated on an evolving time scale (20 and 50 periods): every day, the oldest value (often taken at the close) in the average calculus is replaced by the value of the new session.
Bollinger bands: are represented by 3 different bands and are derived from moving averages. The middle band corresponds to a simple moving average (MA (20)). The level of the upper band, in every point, corresponds to the sum of the level of the middle band and twice the value of the standard deviation associated to the 20-day moving average. Reciprocally, the level of the lower band corresponds to the level of the middle band diminished by twice the value of the standard deviation associated to the 20-day moving average. An envelop of the stock price is thus determined. This makes it possible to then identify the variation margin in which the stock should stay almost systematically. In the case of a stock following a Gauss law, 95 % of the trades will thus occur between these bands.
RSI (14): the Relative Strength Index aims at establishing a reference scale independently from the stock prices levels themselves. As the RSI has boundaries (0 and 100), it then becomes very easy to determine overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. In addition, just as on prices themselves, supports and resistances can appear, especially when nearing the neutrality zone (near 50). Thus, the RSI is one of the most commonly used counter-trend indicators.
It is based on the average of rises and drops of price, with the formula:
RSI = 100 - [100 / (1 + RS)]
Where RS represents the average of up closes divided by the average of down closes on the considered period (14). | |
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