| | | | | Commentary | | The Straits Times index fell 0.12% or 3.68pts to 3165.7 (day range: 3172.74 - 3147.89) on Monday. The index is above its 20d MA (@ 3132) and above its 50d MA (@ 3081). 73% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 80% the previous session) and 80% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 80%). Trading volume on the index was high, 62.2% above the 3 months average. On a daily basis, the index has been well supported by its rising 20-day moving average and remains on the upside. The rising 50-day moving average also maintains a bullish bias. Meanwhile, the relative strength index is still above its neutrality area at 50. Even though a continuation of intraday consolidation in current stage cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited. The ST outlook remains bullish: as long as 3075 is not broken down, further upside is preferred in the short term. The HSI index rose 0.79% or 192.06pts to 24501.99 (day range: 24501.99 - 24312.57) on Monday. The index is above its 20d MA (@ 23882) and above its 50d MA (@ 23500). 79% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 81% the previous session) and 86% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 81%). Trading volume on the index was high, 41.4% above the 3 months average. On the daily chart, the index has crossed above the 20-day moving average with a bullish gap, and is penetrating its upper Bollinger band, which could allow for a bullish acceleration. The rising 50-period moving average also maintains a bullish bias and the relative strength index is well directed. As long as the index stays above the key support at 23800, expect a further rise to 24900. |
| Straits Times Intraday: turning down. |  | Pivot: 3175.00
Our preference: short positions below 3175.00 with targets at 3135.00 & 3120.00 in extension.
Alternative scenario: above 3175.00 look for further upside with 3190.00 & 3200.00 as targets.
Comment: as long as 3175.00 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.
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| |  | | Opinion published is a ST (short-term) view. Green Lines Represent Resistance | Red Represents Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point | Black represents the price when the report was produced | | Associated Warrants for Straits Times |
| Type | Strike | Expiry | Delta | Ticker | Issuer | Name | Risk | Conv ratio | Eff. Gearing | | Put | 2900.00 | 30/06/2017 | CDMW | Macquarie Bank | STI MBL EPW170630% | Medium risk | 2500.0 % | 11.9 % | | Put | 2950.00 | 28/04/2017 | -0.3 | CBXW | Macquarie Bank | STI MBL EPW170428% | High risk | 2500.0 % | 25.3 % | | Call | 3050.00 | 30/06/2017 | 0.5 | CDKW | Macquarie Bank | STI MBL ECW170630% | Low risk | 2500.0 % | 7.9 % | | Call | 3000.00 | 28/04/2017 | 0.7 | CBVW | Macquarie Bank | STI MBL ECW170428% | Low risk | 2500.0 % | 12.1 % |
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| Hang Seng Intraday: further upside. | | Pivot: 24250
Our preference: long positions above 24250 with targets at 24600 & 24800 in extension.
Alternative scenario: below 24250 look for further downside with 24000 & 23820 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is bullish and calls for further upside.
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| |  | | Opinion published is a ST (short-term) view. Green Lines Represent Resistance | Red Represents Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point | Black represents the price when the report was produced | | Associated Warrants for Hang Seng |
| Type | Strike | Expiry | Delta | Ticker | Issuer | Name | Risk | Conv ratio | Eff. Gearing | | Call | 24200.00 | 27/04/2017 | 0.6 | CCUW | Macquarie Bank | HSI MBL ECW170427% | Medium risk | 1000.0 % | 17.3 % | | Call | 23800.00 | 30/03/2017 | 0.8 | CCFW | Macquarie Bank | HSI MBL ECW170330% | Low risk | 1000.0 % | 24.5 % | | Call | 24600.00 | 29/05/2017 | 0.5 | CFFW | Macquarie Bank | HSI MBL ECW170529% | Medium risk | 1000.0 % | 15.9 % | | Put | 23600.00 | 27/04/2017 | -0.3 | CESW | Macquarie Bank | HSI MBL EPW170427% | High risk | 1000.0 % | 24.5 % | | Put | 23200.00 | 29/06/2017 | -0.3 | CEVW | UBS | HSI UBS EPW170629% | Medium risk | 1000.0 % | 10.7 % | | Put | 23200.00 | 29/06/2017 | -0.3 | CEVW | UBS | HSI UBS EPW170629% | Medium risk | 1000.0 % | 10.7 % |
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| DBS Group Intraday: under pressure. | | Pivot: 19.11
Our preference: short positions below 19.11 with targets at 18.78 & 18.68 in extension.
Alternative scenario: above 19.11 look for further upside with 19.23 & 19.34 as targets.
Comment: technically the RSI is below its neutrality area at 50.
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| |  | | Opinion published is a ST (short-term) view. Green Lines Represent Resistance | Red Represents Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point | Black represents the price when the report was produced | | Associated Warrants for DBS Group |
| Type | Strike | Expiry | Delta | Ticker | Issuer | Name | Risk | Conv ratio | Eff. Gearing | | Put | 18.00 | 02/10/2017 | -0.5 | CBNW | Macquarie Bank | DBS GROUP MBL EPW171002% | Medium risk | 8.0 % | 6.6 % | | Put | 16.80 | 30/10/2017 | -0.4 | CBOW | Macquarie Bank | DBS GROUP MBL EPW171030% | Medium risk | 8.0 % | 8.5 % | | Call | 19.50 | 10/07/2017 | 0.3 | CBJW | Macquarie Bank | DBS GROUP MBL ECW170710% | Medium risk | 8.0 % | 7.9 % | | Call | 18.00 | 03/07/2017 | 0.5 | CBDW | Macquarie Bank | DBS GROUP MBL ECW170703% | Low risk | 8.0 % | 6.6 % |
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 | MA (50) & MA (20): The most simple trend indicators are Moving Averages. They simply correspond to an average calculated on an evolving time scale (20 and 50 periods): every day, the oldest value (often taken at the close) in the average calculus is replaced by the value of the new session.
Bollinger bands: are represented by 3 different bands and are derived from moving averages. The middle band corresponds to a simple moving average (MA (20)). The level of the upper band, in every point, corresponds to the sum of the level of the middle band and twice the value of the standard deviation associated to the 20-day moving average. Reciprocally, the level of the lower band corresponds to the level of the middle band diminished by twice the value of the standard deviation associated to the 20-day moving average. An envelop of the stock price is thus determined. This makes it possible to then identify the variation margin in which the stock should stay almost systematically. In the case of a stock following a Gauss law, 95 % of the trades will thus occur between these bands.
RSI (14): the Relative Strength Index aims at establishing a reference scale independently from the stock prices levels themselves. As the RSI has boundaries (0 and 100), it then becomes very easy to determine overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. In addition, just as on prices themselves, supports and resistances can appear, especially when nearing the neutrality zone (near 50). Thus, the RSI is one of the most commonly used counter-trend indicators.
It is based on the average of rises and drops of price, with the formula:
RSI = 100 - [100 / (1 + RS)]
Where RS represents the average of up closes divided by the average of down closes on the considered period (14). | |
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