| | | | | Commentary | | The Straits Times index dropped 0.99% or 31.24pts to 3138.00 (day range: 3136.93 - 3160.14) on Monday. This morning, the index posted some technical rebound and is trading above the 50d MA (@ 3135) as well as the key support at 3105. The relative strength index is around its neutrality level at 50 and lacks downward momentum. As long as the key support at 3105 is not broken, we keep our positive view unchanged with an up target at 3240 first. The HSI index was closed on Monday for Easter holiday. On last Thursday, the index was below its 20d MA (@ 24309) and above its 50d MA (@ 23960). 53% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 58% the previous session) and 60% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 63%). On Tuesday morning, the index is consolidating and broke below its 20D MA (@ 24296). Nevertheless, the rising 50D MA (@ 23977) is still playing a support role and maintains the upside bias. In addition, the key support at 23800 is still untouched. Therefore, the short-term outlook is maintained as bullish, with the level at 24700 playing the role of the first upside target. |
| Straits Times Intraday: rebound. |  | Pivot: 3115.00
Our preference: long positions above 3115.00 with targets at 3160.00 & 3172.00 in extension.
Alternative scenario: below 3115.00 look for further downside with 3110.00 & 3100.00 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is bullish and calls for further upside.
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| |  | | Opinion published is a ST (short-term) view. Green Lines Represent Resistance | Red Represents Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point | Black represents the price when the report was produced | | Associated Warrants for Straits Times |
| Type | Strike | Expiry | Delta | Ticker | Issuer | Name | Risk | Conv ratio | Eff. Gearing | | Put | 2950.00 | 28/04/2017 | -0.3 | CBXW | Macquarie Bank | STI MBL EPW170428% | High risk | 2500.0 % | 37.7 % | | Put | 2900.00 | 30/06/2017 | -0.4 | CDMW | Macquarie Bank | STI MBL EPW170630% | High risk | 2500.0 % | 21.0 % | | Call | 3050.00 | 30/06/2017 | 0.5 | CDKW | Macquarie Bank | STI MBL ECW170630% | Medium risk | 2500.0 % | 8.5 % | | Call | 3000.00 | 28/04/2017 | 0.6 | CBVW | Macquarie Bank | STI MBL ECW170428% | Medium risk | 2500.0 % | 9.8 % |
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| Hang Seng Intraday: turning up. | | Pivot: 23875
Our preference: long positions above 23875 with targets at 24200 & 24310 in extension.
Alternative scenario: below 23875 look for further downside with 23785 & 23710 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is bullish and calls for further advance.
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| |  | | Opinion published is a ST (short-term) view. Green Lines Represent Resistance | Red Represents Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point | Black represents the price when the report was produced | | Associated Warrants for Hang Seng |
| Type | Strike | Expiry | Delta | Ticker | Issuer | Name | Risk | Conv ratio | Eff. Gearing | | Put | 23600.00 | 27/04/2017 | -0.3 | CESW | Macquarie Bank | HSI MBL EPW170427% | High risk | 1000.0 % | 51.9 % | | Put | 23200.00 | 29/06/2017 | -0.4 | CEVW | UBS | HSI UBS EPW170629% | High risk | 1000.0 % | 17.8 % | | Put | 23200.00 | 29/06/2017 | -0.4 | CEVW | UBS | HSI UBS EPW170629% | High risk | 1000.0 % | 17.8 % | | Call | 24200.00 | 27/04/2017 | 0.4 | CCUW | Macquarie Bank | HSI MBL ECW170427% | High risk | 1000.0 % | 42.2 % | | Call | 23800.00 | 29/05/2017 | 0.5 | CFGW | Macquarie Bank | HSI MBL ECW170529% | Medium risk | 1000.0 % | 12.6 % | | Call | 24600.00 | 29/05/2017 | 0.4 | CFFW | Macquarie Bank | HSI MBL ECW170529% | High risk | 1000.0 % | 24.7 % |
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| OCBC Intraday: under pressure. | | Pivot: 9.66
Our preference: short positions below 9.66 with targets at 9.56 & 9.52 in extension.
Alternative scenario: above 9.66 look for further upside with 9.72 & 9.78 as targets.
Comment: the upward potential is likely to be limited by the resistance at 9.66.
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| |  | | Opinion published is a ST (short-term) view. Green Lines Represent Resistance | Red Represents Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point | Black represents the price when the report was produced | | Associated Warrants for OCBC |
| Type | Strike | Expiry | Delta | Ticker | Issuer | Name | Risk | Conv ratio | Eff. Gearing | | Put | 19.00 | 03/07/2017 | -0.3 | CBGW | Macquarie Bank | OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP MBL EPW170703% | High risk | 12.0 % | 23.6 % | | Put | 20.00 | 02/10/2017 | -0.4 | CBQW | Macquarie Bank | OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP MBL EPW171002% | Medium risk | 12.0 % | 7.4 % | | Call | 21.00 | 03/07/2017 | 0.5 | CBFW | Macquarie Bank | OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP MBL ECW170703% | Medium risk | 12.0 % | 8.9 % | | Call | 19.50 | 05/06/2017 | 0.7 | BZYW | Macquarie Bank | OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP MBL ECW170605% | Low risk | 12.0 % | 6.8 % |
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 | MA (50) & MA (20): The most simple trend indicators are Moving Averages. They simply correspond to an average calculated on an evolving time scale (20 and 50 periods): every day, the oldest value (often taken at the close) in the average calculus is replaced by the value of the new session.
Bollinger bands: are represented by 3 different bands and are derived from moving averages. The middle band corresponds to a simple moving average (MA (20)). The level of the upper band, in every point, corresponds to the sum of the level of the middle band and twice the value of the standard deviation associated to the 20-day moving average. Reciprocally, the level of the lower band corresponds to the level of the middle band diminished by twice the value of the standard deviation associated to the 20-day moving average. An envelop of the stock price is thus determined. This makes it possible to then identify the variation margin in which the stock should stay almost systematically. In the case of a stock following a Gauss law, 95 % of the trades will thus occur between these bands.
RSI (14): the Relative Strength Index aims at establishing a reference scale independently from the stock prices levels themselves. As the RSI has boundaries (0 and 100), it then becomes very easy to determine overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. In addition, just as on prices themselves, supports and resistances can appear, especially when nearing the neutrality zone (near 50). Thus, the RSI is one of the most commonly used counter-trend indicators.
It is based on the average of rises and drops of price, with the formula:
RSI = 100 - [100 / (1 + RS)]
Where RS represents the average of up closes divided by the average of down closes on the considered period (14). | |
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