| | | | | Commentary | | The Straits Times index rose 0.24% or 7.09pts to 2937.86 (day range: 2942.48 - 2930.32) on Friday. The index is above its 20d MA (@ 2909) and above its 50d MA (@ 2856). 50% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 57% the previous session) and 57% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 57%). On a daily basis, the index is posting a pullback and is expected to test its 20-day moving average. And the relative strength index is still above its 50% neutrality area. As long as 2900 is not broken below, we prefer a positive ST outlook, with another challenge of 2980 as likely. The HSI index fell 0.18% or 38.65pts to 22020.75 (day range: 22155.14 - 21965.68) on Friday. The index is below its 20d MA (@ 22593) and below its 50d MA (@ 22835). 14% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 12% the previous session) and 16% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 16%). Trading volume on the index was high, 57.3% above the 3 months average. On the daily chart, the index remained under pressure below its 50-day moving average, and has broken below the 20-day moving average. Meanwhile the daily relative strength index is turning down from 50 and is badly directed. As long as the key resistance at 22650 is not surpassed, it is expected to return to the first downside target at 21700. |
| Straits Times Intraday: under pressure. |  | Pivot: 2925.00
Our preference: short positions below 2925.00 with targets at 2895.00 & 2880.00 in extension.
Alternative scenario: above 2925.00 look for further upside with 2945.00 & 2960.00 as targets.
Comment: the RSI advocates for further downside.
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| |  | | Opinion published is a ST (short-term) view. Green Lines Represent Resistance | Red Represents Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point | Black represents the price when the report was produced | | Associated Warrants for Straits Times |
| Type | Strike | Expiry | Delta | Ticker | Issuer | Name | Risk | Conv ratio | Eff. Gearing | | Put | 2850.00 | 28/04/2017 | -0.4 | CBWW | Macquarie Bank | STI MBL EPW170428% | Medium risk | 2500.0 % | 7.0 % | | Put | 2750.00 | 28/02/2017 | -0.3 | BYNW | Macquarie Bank | STI MBL EPW170228% | High risk | 2500.0 % | 11.8 % | | Call | 3000.00 | 30/12/2016 | 0.3 | BWPW | Macquarie Bank | STI MBL ECW161230% | High risk | 2500.0 % | 14.7 % | | Call | 2950.00 | 28/02/2017 | BYMW | Macquarie Bank | STI MBL ECW170228% | Medium risk | 2500.0 % | 10.9 % |
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| Hang Seng Intraday: the downside prevails. | | Pivot: 21850
Our preference: short positions below 21850 with targets at 21670 & 21600 in extension.
Alternative scenario: above 21850 look for further upside with 22000 & 22180 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is mixed to bearish.
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| |  | | Opinion published is a ST (short-term) view. Green Lines Represent Resistance | Red Represents Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point | Black represents the price when the report was produced | | Associated Warrants for Hang Seng |
| Type | Strike | Expiry | Delta | Ticker | Issuer | Name | Risk | Conv ratio | Eff. Gearing | | Put | 22400.00 | 26/01/2017 | -0.6 | CAPW | Macquarie Bank | HSI MBL EPW170126% | Medium risk | 1000.0 % | 14.3 % | | Put | 2130.00 | 17/03/2017 | -0.3 | CAZW | Macquarie Bank | HSI MBL EPW170317% | Medium risk | 800.0 % | 11.3 % | | Put | 22000.00 | 29/12/2016 | -0.5 | BZWW | Macquarie Bank | HSI MBL EPW161229% | Medium risk | 1000.0 % | 22.5 % | | Call | 22600.00 | 27/02/2017 | CBYW | Macquarie Bank | HSI MBL ECW170227% | Medium risk | 1000.0 % | 15.7 % | | Call | 23000.00 | 26/01/2017 | 0.3 | CAOW | Macquarie Bank | HSI MBL ECW170126% | High risk | 1000.0 % | 26.7 % | | Call | 23000.00 | 30/03/2017 | 0.4 | CCEW | Macquarie Bank | HSI MBL ECW170330% | Medium risk | 1000.0 % | 12.7 % |
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| S&P 500 Intraday: bullish bias above 2259.00. | | Pivot: 2259.00
Our preference: long positions above 2259.00 with targets at 2272.00 & 2277.00 in extension.
Alternative scenario: below 2259.00 look for further downside with 2254.00 & 2249.00 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is mixed with a bullish bias.
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| |  | | Opinion published is a ST (short-term) view. Green Lines Represent Resistance | Red Represents Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point | Black represents the price when the report was produced | | Associated Warrants for S&P 500 |
| Type | Strike | Expiry | Delta | Ticker | Issuer | Name | Risk | Conv ratio | Eff. Gearing | | Call | 2280.00 | 17/03/2017 | 0.5 | CAXW | Macquarie Bank | S&P 500 MBL ECW170317% | Low risk | 800.0 % | % | | Call | 2180.00 | 17/03/2017 | 0.65 | CAWW | Macquarie Bank | S&P 500 MBL ECW170317% | Low risk | 800.0 % | % | | Put | 2130.00 | 17/03/2017 | -0.4 | CAZW | Macquarie Bank | S&P 500 MBL EPW170317% | Medium risk | 800.0 % | 15.1 % | | Put | 2030.00 | 17/03/2017 | -0.3 | CAYW | Macquarie Bank | S&P 500 MBL EPW170317% | Medium risk | 800.0 % | 19.7 % |
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 | MA (50) & MA (20): The most simple trend indicators are Moving Averages. They simply correspond to an average calculated on an evolving time scale (20 and 50 periods): every day, the oldest value (often taken at the close) in the average calculus is replaced by the value of the new session.
Bollinger bands: are represented by 3 different bands and are derived from moving averages. The middle band corresponds to a simple moving average (MA (20)). The level of the upper band, in every point, corresponds to the sum of the level of the middle band and twice the value of the standard deviation associated to the 20-day moving average. Reciprocally, the level of the lower band corresponds to the level of the middle band diminished by twice the value of the standard deviation associated to the 20-day moving average. An envelop of the stock price is thus determined. This makes it possible to then identify the variation margin in which the stock should stay almost systematically. In the case of a stock following a Gauss law, 95 % of the trades will thus occur between these bands.
RSI (14): the Relative Strength Index aims at establishing a reference scale independently from the stock prices levels themselves. As the RSI has boundaries (0 and 100), it then becomes very easy to determine overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. In addition, just as on prices themselves, supports and resistances can appear, especially when nearing the neutrality zone (near 50). Thus, the RSI is one of the most commonly used counter-trend indicators.
It is based on the average of rises and drops of price, with the formula:
RSI = 100 - [100 / (1 + RS)]
Where RS represents the average of up closes divided by the average of down closes on the considered period (14). | |
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