| | | | | Commentary | | The Straits Times index jumped 1.26% or 40.63pts to 3256.33 (day range: 3262.12 - 3234.33) on Thursday. The index is above its 20d MA (@ 3235) and above its 50d MA (@ 3218). 67% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 43% the previous session) and 60% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 40%). Technically, after testing the support at its 50-day moving average, the index has bounced to levels above the 20-day moving average, which stand above the 50-day one. Meanwhile, the relative strength index is well directed above the neutrality level of 50, suggesting further upward momentum for the index. The short-term outlook for the index remains bullish with the level at 3185 holding well as the key support. The index is expected to re-test the immediate resistance at 3290. The HSI index jumped 1.1% or 281.92pts to 25965.42 (day range: 25965.42 - 25814.8) on Thursday. The index is above its 20d MA (@ 25832) and above its 50d MA (@ 25292). 40% of the index constituents are above their 20D MA (vs 33% the previous session) and 63% of the shares are above their 50D MA (vs 56%). Technically, the index has returned to levels above its 20-day moving average, which remains above the 50-day one. At the same time, the relative strength index is holding well above the neutrality level of 50, showing a lack of downward momentum. Also, the level of 25400 is holding firm as the key support. In conclusion, the short-term outlook is still bullish and the index still stands chances of challenging the first upside target at 26350. |
| Straits Times Intraday: turning up. |  | Pivot: 3225.00
Our preference: long positions above 3225.00 with targets at 3265.00 & 3275.00 in extension.
Alternative scenario: below 3225.00 look for further downside with 3212.00 & 3200.00 as targets.
Comment: the RSI calls for a new upleg.
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| |  | | Opinion published is a ST (short-term) view. Green Lines Represent Resistance | Red Represents Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point | Black represents the price when the report was produced | | Associated Warrants for Straits Times |
| Type | Strike | Expiry | Delta | Ticker | Issuer | Name | Risk | Conv ratio | Eff. Gearing | | Call | 3300.00 | 31/08/2017 | 0.3 | CFVW | Macquarie Bank | STI MBL ECW170831% | High risk | 2500.0 % | 10.3 % | | Call | 3300.00 | 31/08/2017 | 0.3 | CFVW | Macquarie Bank | STI MBL ECW170831% | High risk | 2500.0 % | 10.3 % | | Put | 3250.00 | 31/08/2017 | -0.6 | CHAW | Macquarie Bank | STI MBL EPW170831% | Medium risk | 2500.0 % | 12.6 % | | Put | 3050.00 | 31/08/2017 | -0.4 | CFWW | Macquarie Bank | STI MBL EPW170831% | High risk | 2500.0 % | 20.1 % |
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| Hang Seng Intraday: turning up. | | Pivot: 25800
Our preference: long positions above 25800 with targets at 26090 & 26180 in extension.
Alternative scenario: below 25800 look for further downside with 25640 & 25560 as targets.
Comment: the RSI advocates for further upside.
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| |  | | Opinion published is a ST (short-term) view. Green Lines Represent Resistance | Red Represents Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point | Black represents the price when the report was produced | | Associated Warrants for Hang Seng |
| Type | Strike | Expiry | Delta | Ticker | Issuer | Name | Risk | Conv ratio | Eff. Gearing | | Call | 25800.00 | 28/07/2017 | 0.5 | CGYW | Macquarie Bank | HSI MBL ECW170728% | Medium risk | 1000.0 % | 23.9 % | | Call | 26400.00 | 30/08/2017 | 0.4 | CHLW | Macquarie Bank | HSI MBL ECW170830% | High risk | 1000.0 % | 19.9 % | | Call | 25800.00 | 28/07/2017 | 0.5 | CGYW | Macquarie Bank | HSI MBL ECW170728% | Medium risk | 1000.0 % | 23.9 % | | Put | 25200.00 | 28/07/2017 | -0.3 | CHPW | Macquarie Bank | HSI MBL EPW170728% | High risk | 1000.0 % | 25.5 % | | Put | 25200.00 | 28/07/2017 | -0.3 | CHPW | Macquarie Bank | HSI MBL EPW170728% | High risk | 1000.0 % | 25.5 % | | Put | 25200.00 | 28/07/2017 | -0.3 | CHPW | Macquarie Bank | HSI MBL EPW170728% | High risk | 1000.0 % | 25.5 % |
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| DBS Group Intraday: further advance. | | Pivot: 20.64
Our preference: long positions above 20.64 with targets at 20.86 & 21.00 in extension.
Alternative scenario: below 20.64 look for further downside with 20.46 & 20.37 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is bullish and calls for further upside.
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| |  | | Opinion published is a ST (short-term) view. Green Lines Represent Resistance | Red Represents Support Levels | Light Blue is a Pivot Point | Black represents the price when the report was produced | | Associated Warrants for DBS Group |
| Type | Strike | Expiry | Delta | Ticker | Issuer | Name | Risk | Conv ratio | Eff. Gearing | | Call | 22.00 | 16/10/2017 | 0.3 | CGQW | Macquarie Bank | DBS GROUP MBL ECW171016% | Medium risk | 9.0 % | 10.2 % | | Call | 20.00 | 01/11/2017 | 0.6 | CBMW | Macquarie Bank | DBS GROUP MBL ECW171101% | Low risk | 8.0 % | 7.5 % | | Put | 19.50 | 16/10/2017 | -0.3 | CGXW | Macquarie Bank | DBS GROUP MBL EPW171016% | Medium risk | 9.0 % | 9.9 % | | Put | 19.50 | 16/10/2017 | -0.3 | CGXW | Macquarie Bank | DBS GROUP MBL EPW171016% | Medium risk | 9.0 % | 9.9 % |
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 | MA (50) & MA (20): The most simple trend indicators are Moving Averages. They simply correspond to an average calculated on an evolving time scale (20 and 50 periods): every day, the oldest value (often taken at the close) in the average calculus is replaced by the value of the new session.
Bollinger bands: are represented by 3 different bands and are derived from moving averages. The middle band corresponds to a simple moving average (MA (20)). The level of the upper band, in every point, corresponds to the sum of the level of the middle band and twice the value of the standard deviation associated to the 20-day moving average. Reciprocally, the level of the lower band corresponds to the level of the middle band diminished by twice the value of the standard deviation associated to the 20-day moving average. An envelop of the stock price is thus determined. This makes it possible to then identify the variation margin in which the stock should stay almost systematically. In the case of a stock following a Gauss law, 95 % of the trades will thus occur between these bands.
RSI (14): the Relative Strength Index aims at establishing a reference scale independently from the stock prices levels themselves. As the RSI has boundaries (0 and 100), it then becomes very easy to determine overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. In addition, just as on prices themselves, supports and resistances can appear, especially when nearing the neutrality zone (near 50). Thus, the RSI is one of the most commonly used counter-trend indicators.
It is based on the average of rises and drops of price, with the formula:
RSI = 100 - [100 / (1 + RS)]
Where RS represents the average of up closes divided by the average of down closes on the considered period (14). | |
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