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| Friday, November 1, 2024 |
| Welcome to the Friday edition of the Pick Six newsletter! |
| The Jets might want to think about asking the NFL to move all of its games to Thursday night for the rest of the season, because they're unstoppable on Thursday nights. With their 21-13 win over the Texans, the 3-6 Jets are now 2-0 on Thursdays this year and 1-6 on all other days. |
| The Jets were able to pull off the win thanks to Garrett Wilson, who made one of the best catches in NFL history. Am I exaggerating? Am I a prisoner of the moment? Possibly, but I don't think I am. You can judge the catch for yourself by checking it out here, and if you've already seen it, it's probably worth watching again. |
| Today is a big day around the NFL and that's because we are now exactly 100 DAYS AWAY from Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans. If you need a refresher on all our preseason Super Bowl predictions, you can see those here. My preseason pick was Lions-Bengals and I feel good about roughly 50% of that pick right now. We've got 100 things to know with the Super Bowl 100 days away and you can check those out here . |
| As always, here's your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here. |
| 1. Jets beat Texans: Grades and notes for 'Thursday Night Football' |
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| The New York Jets needed a win to save their season on Thursday night and that's exactly what they got. It definitely didn't look like that win was going to happen after they got shut out in the first half, but they bounced back to pull out a 21-13 victory over the Texans. |
| Here are our grades from the game: |
| TEXANS GRADE: C |
| The Texans might suddenly have a problem and that problem is that their offensive line is having trouble protecting the quarterback. C.J. Stroud got sacked a total of eight times in this game, which marks the fifth time this season that he's been sacked at least three times. With no time to throw, Stroud had an erratic night, completing just 36.7% of his passes for 191 yards. The Texans did get a huge game from Joe Mixon (24 carries for 106 yards), but they seemed to give up on him in the second half with the running back only getting seven carries. Tank Dell did his best to carry Houston's receiving group with 126 yards, but Stroud had a tough time getting the ball to anyone else. Stroud will likely look better once Nico Collins is back -- and he's eligible to come off injured reserve heading into Week 10 -- but the offensive line play is going to have to improve if the Texans want to be a threat in January. Also, the Texans will now be hoping that this was a one-off bad game for Stroud, Ka'imi Fairbairn (missed two field goals) and the offensive line, and not a sign of things to come. |
| Texans notes |
| Joe Mixon joins rare group. The Texans running back finished with 106 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown, which makes him just the fifth player in NFL history to go for at least 100 rushing yards and at least one rushing TD in five of his first six games of the season. Mixon joins Jim Brown (1958), O.J. Simpson (1975), Emmitt Smith (1995), DeMarco Murray (2014) as the only players to pull that off. MetLife might be cursed for kickers. The normally reliable Ka'imi Fairbairn missed two field goals in this game with those kicks coming from 27 and 56 yards. It marked the first time since 2018 that he had missed two field goals in a game. His 27-yard miss was also the shortest missed field goal by any NFL kicker this season. NFL kickers were 107 of 107 on field goals from under 30 this year before Fairbairn hit his kick off the upright (You can see it here ). The miss also means that the two shortest misses in 2024 have both come at MetLife Stadium. Greg Zuerlein missed a 32-yarder back in Week 6, which held the title of shortest missed field goal before Fairbairn came along on Thursday. |
| JETS GRADE: B+ |
| Garrett Wilson might have single-handedly saved the Jets season and we mean that literally. The Jets receiver made two touchdown catches in this game and he made both catches with a single hand, including a 26-yarder that will likely go down as the catch of the year. The Jets offense struggled in the first half with just 69 yards, but in the second half, we got a glimpse of what this team can be going forward. Aaron Rodgers was nearly perfect over the final two quarters, especially while targeting Wilson and Davante Adams (He went 10 of 11 for 147 yards while throwing to those two in the second half). The Jets defense also made a statement with eight sacks, the team's second-highest total over the past 35 years. If this is the team that shows up every week, there's no reason the Jets can't get back in the AFC playoff race, especially when you consider that they have the easiest strength of schedule in the AFC over the final nine weeks of the season. |
| Jets notes |
| Jets flying high in the second half. The Jets scored a touchdown on every second half possession (excluding kneeldowns), which is notable, because they had not done that in almost 25 years. Before Thursday, the last time the Jets scored a TD on every possession in the second half of a game came all the way back in 2000. Dynamic duo. Davante Adams led the Jets with seven catches for 91 yards and a TD while Garrett Wilson was right behind him with nine catches for 90 yards and two touchdowns. With those stats, this marked the first time since 2015 that a Jets receiving duo both finished with at least seven catches for at least 90 yards with at least one TD each. The last time it happened, Ryan Fitzpatrick was the QB and the receivers were Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker. Rookie mistake. The Jets win got Malachi Corley off the hook. The rookie made one of the most embarrassing mistakes of the season when he dropped the ball in celebration before he actually scored a TD. The play was ruled a touchdown on the field, but after a review, it was clear that Corley dropped the ball before he crossed the goal line and the call was switched to a touchback for Houston (You can see the play here). |
| Finally, you can check out our full takeaways from the game here. |
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| 2. Former NFL GM has six trade proposals ahead of deadline |
| If there's anyone who knows all about the chaos of the NFL trade deadline, it's Rick Spielman, who spent 10 seasons as the general manager of the Minnesota Vikings (2012-21). Spielman isn't in an NFL front office anymore, but he is the co-host on "With the First Pick" podcast here at CBS Sports. |
| With the trade deadline coming up on Nov. 5, Spielman offered up six trade proposals that need to happen between now and then. Let's take a look at three of them: |
| Buccaneers should add Cooper Kupp. Even though the Bucs lost to the Falcons last week, Spielman believes Tampa Bay is still very much in it and adding a wide receiver could help them stay in the NFC South race. "That would give them a chance to have a chance," Spielman said on the podcast. "They have an uphill battle but it's not over. Spielman points out that young guys on the team are stepping up, the run game is improving and Mayfield is playing well, so with another weapon for the QB, they could piece together some more wins. They currently sit at 4-4 and second in the NFC South. Titans should acquire Bryce Young. In one of Spielman's boldest takes, he suggests that the Titans trade for former No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young. The suggestion got some laughs, but the former NFL GM doubles down, giving some good reasons why it should happen. "Will Levis is not the answer, correct? Mason Rudolph is not the answer, correct?" Spielman said. "I would just explore it, that's all I'm saying. ... I'm thinking outside the box."Cowboys should trade for Chuba Hubbard. Carolina is in a "fire sale" while Dallas is in a "dark place." A trade that could work for both of them is running back Chuba Hubbard, who is on his last year of his rookie contract, heading to the Cowboys. Ezekiel Elliott and Dalvin Cook are not the same as they once were and the team is struggling to run the ball. "I think this guy would give them a great kick start in the running game with his vision and his power. And he can catch the ball out of the backfield," Spielman said. |
| Shanna McCarriston broke down Spielman's full comments on these proposals and you can see those here along with the other trade ideas that he has. |
| 3. Lions set to play an outdoor game: Why that's a rarity this year |
| The calendar has officially hit November and the Detroit Lions still have NOT played an outdoor game this year. However, that's going to change on Sunday when they face the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. |
| So how rare is it for a team to go the first eight weeks of the season without playing outdoors? The CBS Sports Research team decided to do some digging and it turns out that it's pretty rare. |
| Lions just third team over 54 years to make it to November with zero outdoor games. Since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970, there have only been three teams that have made it through the first eight weeks of the season without playing an outdoor game: The 1998 Saints, the 2019 Falcons and this year's Lions. The Saints finished 6-10 that year, but they did beat their preseason win total of 5.5 . As for the Falcons, they want an ugly 1-7 during their opening stretch of indoor games before finishing 7-9. Why indoor games are good for the Lions. Since joining the Lions, Jared Goff has been a much better quarterback when playing indoors than he has been outdoors. Goff's completion percentage is more than five points higher indoors (68.9% to 63.6%). The Lions QB also has a much higher yards per passing attempt at 8.0 to 7.1. Most importantly, Goff has averaged 2.1 TD passes per game when playing indoors, but just 1.0 TD passes per game when playing outdoors. Basically, he's an indoor cat.Lions schedule is good news for Goff. Goff was actually my preseason MVP pick this year and a big reason was because of their schedule: The Lions will be playing 14 of their 17 games indoors. If Goff starts every single one of those games, he'll be come the first QB in NFL history to get 14 indoor starts during the regular season (Matt Ryan currently has the record with 13 indoor starts in a single season). |
| The forecast for Sunday is mid-50s with rain, which could be trouble for the Lions, because they might not even remember what rain looks like after playing indoors for so long. If there's one team that could benefit from homefield advantage in the playoffs, it's definitely the Lions. |
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| 4. NFL Week 9 picks: Browns pull off second straight upset, Rams win NFC West showdown |
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| It's officially time for your favorite part of the Friday newsletter, which is where I round up five NFL writers and we all make some picks for the upcoming week. Just in case you've forgotten, our five writers are: Pete Prisco, Jason La Canfora, Jordan Dajani, Tyler Sullivan and myself. I gave everyone a pep talk last week and that clearly worked, because we went 4-1 against the spread in Week 8 and 3-1 straight up. That means we're now 20-20 ATS on the season with the picks that we've featured in this part of the newsletter (and 17-18 straight up). |
| If you're new here, here's how things work: I'll give you one Week 9 pick from each writer and then direct you to the rest of their picks. That way, if you like their pick, you'll be able to click over and check out all of their Week 9 picks, but if you hate their pick, you can ignore the rest of their picks and move on with your life. |
| Pete Prisco -- Rams (-1.5) 34-27 over Seahawks. From Prisco: "The Seattle defense has major issues. Look for a big game from Matthew Stafford and the offense in this one. The Seattle offense will score as well, but won't be able to keep up. It will be a fun one to watch, but the Rams will win it." For the rest of Prisco's Week 9 picks, be sure to click here. Tyler Sullivan -- Browns (+2) 23-21 over Chargers. From Sullivan: "It's going to become clear that Deshaun Watson was the central figure holding the Browns offense back. Jameis Winston did his best 2023 Joe Flacco impression last week, leading Cleveland to an upset win over Baltimore while injecting life into the team's passing attack. Winston had 10 completions of 15 or more air yards, which is more than Watson had for the entire season. Of course, Winston is good for a few head-scratching throws in a given game, but the offense is far better with him under center." For the rest of Sullivan's Week 9 picks, be sure to click here.Jason La Canfora -- Lions (-3.5) to cover against Packers. From La Canfora: "The team is 6-1 ATS this year, covering on average by 9.4 points (second in the NFL). Jordan Love is beat up, the Packers offense hasn't really gotten going and the Lions offense is roaring -- home or road. Detroit is 15-5 ATS on the road since 2022 and 10-2 ATS on the road since 2023 (8-2 ATS as road favorites). The Lions basically got a bye last week with that game vs. Tennessee over after one quarter. " You can check out the rest of JLC's best bets for Week 9 here.Jordan Dajani -- Saints (-7.5) 28-16 over Panthers. From Dajani: "The Panthers aren't very good. Historically bad. They have been outscored by 18.4 points per game, and allow 33.9 points per game this season. ... The Panthers are 1-7 ATS this year, with the lone cover coming in Andy Dalton's first start against the Raiders. They haven't lost a single game by single digits this entire season. Every game they lose is a blowout loss." For the rest of Dajani's Week 9 best bets, be sure to click here.John Breech -- Bills (-6.5) 34-27 over Dolphins. Josh Allen is 12-1 in his past 13 games against the Dolphins and that's the only stat I need to know about this game. For the rest of my Week 9 picks, be sure to click here. |
| For more Week 9 NFL picks, you can check out out our CBSSports.com picks hub here. |
| 5. NFL bold predictions for Week 9: Eagles end unlikely drought |
| After giving you some bold predictions for Week 8 last Friday, Garrett Podell is back with five more for Week 9. |
| Let's take a look at two of his bold predictions for Sunday: |
| 1. Packers defense helps pull off upset over Lions. "New Green Bay defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley's scheme and free agency addition safety Xavier McKinney have been exactly what the other needed as McKinney has come away with more interceptions (six, the most in the NFL) and seven more passes defended. ... Green Bay does just enough on defense to allow a less than 100% Jordan Love to get the Packers over the finish line to take command of first place in the NFC North."2. Joe Flacco leads Colts to upset win over Vikings. "Do you know who has the longest active streak of starts with multiple passing touchdowns in the entire NFL? If you guessed Indianapolis Colts quarterback Joe Flacco, who has done so in each of his last seven starts, you would be correct! Flacco is also averaging 309.1 passing yards per game as a starter since Week 13 of last season when he made his first start for the Cleveland Browns. ... Flacco's magic continues as he outduels Darnold to get the Colts to a winning record of 5-4 while handing the Vikings their third loss in a row following their 5-0 start." |
| Garrett made a total of five bold predictions for Week 9, and you check out all of them here. |
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| 6. Extra points: Puka Nacua suffers knee injury |
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| It's been a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you. |
| Puka Nacua dealing with knee injury. The Rams receiver has already missed five games this year due to a knee injury and he reinjured the same knee on Thursday during practice. According to ESPN , the injury isn't believed to be serious, but his status for Sunday's game against the Seahawks is still up in the air, so be sure to keep a close eye on that if you have him on your Fantasy team. Allen Lazard placed on IR. Before the Jets kicked off on Thursday, they placed Lazard on IR with a chest injury, which means he now has to miss at least four games. The Jets have a bye in November, which will add an extra week to Lazard's absence. This means he won't be eligible to return until Week 14 against the Dolphins. Lamar Jackson might be more banged up than we thought. After the Ravens QB missed practice on Wednesday, John Harbaugh said he was giving Jackson a rest day, but the QB also missed Thursday's practice. Jackson is on the injury report with back and knee ailments, so he's clearly hurting at least a little bit if he wasn't able to practice for the second straight day. It will be interesting to see how much Jackson practices today and how cautious the Ravens are over the few days since they have to play two games in five days with the Broncos on Sunday and the Bengals next Thursday. Drake Maye still in concussion protocol. The rookie QB has spent the week in concussion protocol, but he could still play on Sunday. Patriots coach Jerod Mayo hasn't ruled out the possibility of Maye playing, the QB would just need to be cleared before the game. If Maye can't go, then Jacoby Brissett will start for the Patriots in their road game against the Titans. Hall of Fame names semifinalist for coaches category. There are a total of nine semifinalist and three of them -- Tom Coughlin, George Seifert and Mike Shanahan -- have won two Super Bowls. And then there's Marty Schottenheimer, who has the eighth-most coaching wins in NFL history with 200 victories. Dan Reeves (190) and Chuck Knox (186) are both right behind Schottenheimer on the all-time wins list at 10th and 11th, and they're also semifinalists. You can see the full list here. |
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| | | | | NFL | | Big Ten on CBS | The first half of the NFL regular season is coming to a close, but who can finish out on top? Find out live this Sunday beginning at 1 ET on CBS and streaming on Paramount+.
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