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Wednesday, August 3, 2022
When there is football being played, injuries are going to happen. That's just the nature of the game, and that's especially true at the start of training camp, as guys are working their way back up to football shape and are more at risk of suffering injuries. 
We've seen a handful of them already in training camp, most notably at the wide receiver position, with Tim Patrick being the latest and biggest name so far this training camp. He went down with a non-contact knee injury in Tuesday's practice for the Broncos and tests confirmed a torn ACL, ending Patrick's season before it even begins.
We'll get to what Patrick's injury means for the Broncos offense in today's newsletter, along with a look at sleeper and breakout picks at running back from the Fantasy Football Today team. And, in case you missed it, I took a look at other injuries and news from around the NFL as well as the best and worst offenses for running backs in Fantasy in yesterday's newsletter and answered some of the biggest questions about the position in my State of the RB Position piece Monday. 
In tomorrow's newsletter, I'll make the case for why each of the top-12 running backs in ADP could bust, and on Friday I'll take a look at the best and worst Average Draft Position prices for the position, along with your questions – email me at Chris.Towers@ViacomCBS.com with the subject line "#AskFFT" to be included. But for now, let's take a look at what Patrick's injury means for the Broncos offense and then look at some sleepers and breakouts from Jamey Eisenberg, Heath Cummings, and myself. 
Patricks' ACL tear: What it means for Broncos
Patrick isn't the biggest name for Fantasy players to know – his ADP in NFC drafts as of Tuesday afternoon is 150.83, after all. However, his is an injury that has some potentially serious ramifications for Fantasy. He doesn't have the name value of the rest of the receiving corps and probably doesn't have as much upside either, but he's consistently drawn targets over the past few seasons and was likely to be a thorn in the side of Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton, the guys we were most excited about with the Broncos acquisition of Russell Wilson
The Broncos receiving corps looked like a pretty crowded one, with quite a bit of ambiguity as far as the hierarchy – Patrick, Jeudy, and Sutton were all between a 17% and 20% target share last season, with departed tight end Noah Fant also sporting a 20% rate. Wilson is such a significant upgrade over the likes of Teddy Bridgewater and Drew Lock that Fantasy players were still getting excited about Jeudy and Sutton in particular, but Wilson is coming off a season where nearly half his passes went to his top two targets, so it was hard to know how he would handle a deeper receiving corps. 
With Patrick out of the picture, that should clear things up a bit. Suddenly, it gets a lot easier to project target shares in the 22% range or higher for Jeudy and Sutton, which is where they'd need to be to justify being drafted as starters, even with Wilson making them more efficient than they've been in the past. It would also make it easier to assume Albert Okwuegbunam will step into Fant's role, which could make him a borderline top-12 tight end and big-time breakout candidate. And it could even open up a path to relevance for KJ Hamler, who was just activated from the PUP list Monday after suffering season-ending knee and hip injuries last season.
It's unfortunate that Patrick suffered this injury on the precipice of an opportunity to play with the best QB of his career, but from a Fantasy perspective, this does clear things up. Football tends to be a zero-sum game – every target that goes to one player necessarily doesn't go to another player. If Patrick isn't out there, it probably leads to a more concentrated target distribution for the Broncos, which makes it just a little more likely for Sutton, Jeudy, and Okwuegbunam to live up to expectations. 
Given we're asking all three to take a significant step forward from where they were last season, they need all the help they can get. It's just unfortunate it comes at Patrick's expense. 
RB Sleeper and breakout targets
What should you be looking for when it comes to breakouts and sleepers at running back? At other positions, we generally know what to look for – at quarterback, rushing ability rules all, while measurables and college production tend to be the focus at wide receiver.
Running back isn't quite so simple, partially because production at running back tends to be pretty simple. Getting touches isn't the only thing that matters – the distribution of those touches matters a great deal, obviously – but it's most of the battle. This means that, when you're looking for players likely to make an outsized impact at the position, a lot of it's going to come down to picking guys who are going to get the right opportunities. 
For sleepers, I want to look for cheap players in situations where the path to regular playing time is pretty clear – and if they've got a chance to outright win the starting job in camp, even better. For breakouts, I'm looking for similar situations, but I'm also setting my sights higher – I want players with the skill set to be true impact options if they get the opportunity. That means pass-catching skills, mostly. 
My sleepers/breakouts
Sleeper: Isaiah Spiller – Reports that Spiller has been seeing time with the first-team offense are promising because that would give him standalone value along with huge upside if something happened to Austin Ekeler – though it's worth noting another report came out Tuesday indicating Spiller has been seeing plenty of time with the second and third teams , so who knows where things stand right now. Ekeler is an elite Fantasy option, but he averaged a career-high 12.9 carries last season, leaving plenty for someone else to get 8-10 touches. The real upside, of course, comes in the event something happens to Ekeler. Justin Jackson had nine targets in the lone game Ekeler missed last season, and Spiller could be in line for a role that could produce top-12 value if Ekeler misses time. If you're wondering which running back outside the top-36 in current ADP might have league-winning upside, Spiller might be the best choice. 
Sleeper: James Robinson – There isn't much track record of running backs coming back from a ruptured Achilles and being stars, which is why I'm wary of investing an early-round pick in Cam Akers . But when Robinson costs a double-digit round, it's a lot easier to take that bet. Sure, his injury occurred much more recently than Akers' – Akers was back in action around when Robinson's injury occurred, in fact – but Robinson is already cleared for the start of camp and has experience in a three-down role, something few backs in his range can say. Travis Etienne has breakout potential of his own in this offense, but I wouldn't be shocked if Robinson still had a big role here. 
Breakout: James Conner – It's never quite as simple as "Look at what this guy did when his teammate was hurt" and extrapolating from there, but humor me when it comes to Conner. In the five games Conner played with Chase Edmonds out last season, he took over the pass-catching role for the Cardinals and was an elite Fantasy option, averaging 23.1 PPR points per game with an 85-catch pace. It's fair – more than fair – to question whether Conner could stay healthy with that kind of usage, but he's been a good pass-catcher throughout his career, so I'm not skeptical about the skills. And we've seen the primary goal-line back for the Cardinals rack up 28 touchdowns over the past two seasons, so we know that role has value. If the Cardinals trust Conner with more of the passing game work, he could be this year's Leonard Fournette, a top-five back for Fantasy. 
Breakout: D'Andre Swift – Swift's overall per-game production may not wow you, but he was on pace for 944 yards on the ground and 714 on 90 catches through the air in his first 10 games before an injury derailed his season. He has Austin Ekeler-type skills as a playmaker in the passing game, and you might have forgotten, but he also had 266 yards on the ground in his last two games before the injury. He has top-three upside given his pass-catching potential, and if the Lions offense as a whole takes a step forward, Swift has a pretty good chance to reach. My only concern at this point is injuries, not performance. 
Jamey's sleepers/breakouts
Sleeper: Kenneth Gainwell – "I'm hesitant to call Gainwell a breakout candidate because I want Miles Sanders to succeed, but if Sanders misses any time then Gainwell could be a lottery ticket. He's an easy target on Draft Day given his price in late July (FantasyPros ADP of 143 overall as RB51), and he should shatter that ADP, even if Sanders is healthy. The Eagles' offense should greatly improve with the addition of A.J. Brown, and I'm excited about Jalen Hurts and the passing game."
Sleeper: Tyler Allgeier – "Allgeier is in an interesting spot with the Falcons this season, especially if Cordarelle Patterson returns to more of a receiving role. But even in tandem with Patterson in the backfield, we could see Allgeier emerge as the best running back in Atlanta. At BYU , Allgeier averaged 6.4 yards per carry in his four-year career, and he had 276 carries for 1,601 yards and 23 touchdowns in 2021, as well as 28 catches for 199 yards. He was a physical presence in college and led all running backs in rushing yards after contact over the past two seasons (1,847), as well as finishing second in rushing touchdowns (36) over that span."
Breakout: Javonte Williams – "In full disclosure, I've been all over the place with Williams this offseason. At one point I had him ranked as a top 10 running back, but he dropped a tier when Denver re-signed Melvin Gordon . Then early in training camp, with reports of Gordon more in line to take a secondary role to Williams, I moved Williams back closer to the top 10. He may creep back into the top 10 if it appears like he's headed for a workhorse role, and I'm comfortable drafting Williams early in Round 3. This Broncos offense should improve with Russell Wilson under center, and Williams should lead the team in touches, barring an injury."
Breakout: A.J. Dillon – "The Packers offense will look different this season with Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling gone, and Green Bay's best weapons could be Aaron Jones and Dillon. I love Jones in the passing game this year -- he could lead the team in receptions based on his past production when Adams has been out due to injury -- and Dillon could emerge as the Packers leading rusher. During minicamp in June, the Packers had Jones and Dillon on the field together with the starting offense, and that's one way to maximize their potential. Dillon took over as the leading rusher for Green Bay at the end of the regular season in 2021 with 45 carries to 38 for Jones in their final four games together."
Heath's sleepers/breakouts
Sleeper: Dameon Pierce – "There are plenty of similarities between Dameon Pierce and Tyler Allgeier, at least as sleepers. They're rookie running backs with very questionable competition for touches on bad offenses. That last part does cap their upside a little, but not in the double-digit rounds. I prefer Pierce because I like his pass-catching profile more and I am less concerned about Marlon Mack than I am Cordarrelle Patterson."
Sleeper: Nyheim Hines – "Hines had a bit of a down year last year, but the Colts have spent the offseason telling anyone who will listen that he's going to bounce back. Remember, this is a back who finished RB18 in 2020 when Philip Rivers was his quarterback. Matt Ryan is far more similar to Rivers as opposed to Carson Wentz . There should be more pass attempts in Indianapolis this year and a higher percentage of them should go to the running backs. Hines has an excellent chance to finish second on the team in receptions behind Michael Pittman."
Breakout: Javonte Williams – "Javonte Williams was everyone's favorite breakout before Melvin Gordon's return. And while I'm ranking Williams lower now than I was then, I'm not backing off the breakout. The Broncos' new system, much like the Packers' old system, will have more than enough room for multiple backs. While Williams will have to share, we expect him to start the year as the 1A, instead of an even split like 2021. And Gordon is 29 years old, so it's probably worth remembering that Williams scored 29.8 PPR Fantasy points in his lone game without Gordon."
BreakoutCam Akers – "Cam Akers struggled mightily in his return from a torn Achilles, but considering we'd never seen a running back come back that fast, I'm not sure we should hold it against him. After a full offseason of recovery, Akers has earned rave reviews this summer and looks primed to finally take off as the team's feature back. Darrell Henderson and Sony Michel combined for 14 games with at least 16 touches last year, and Akers is more talented than either. There's true feature-back potential here on one of the best offenses in football."-
 
 
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