Small Caps Are Poised for a Big 2022 By Chris Igou, analyst, True Wealth
The S&P 500 Index is about to close another incredible year... It's up 23% this year as of Friday's close. And this will be the third straight year of 16%-plus gains. Certain parts of the market have struggled compared to the S&P 500, though. Small-cap stocks are one of the best examples... The Russell 2000 Index is up just 10% over that time frame. And it's well below its high for the year. Small caps could be at the start of a turnaround, though... The Russell 2000 recently fell 12% in less than a month. That was a sharp drop in a short window. If you're wondering if this downturn will continue, history shows it's not likely. The quick fall led small caps into oversold territory. This doesn't happen often. But when it does, it's worth paying attention to... Similar setups have led to winning trades 82% of the time over the next year. And that means small caps are set up for a fantastic 2022. Let me explain...
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When I talk about oversold setups, I'm referring to the relative strength index ("RSI"). It's a contrarian tool that lets investors see when a stock or market has gotten ahead of itself... suggesting a reversal is likely. When a market falls below an RSI of 30, that means it's in oversold territory. And when it rises above 70, that means it's overbought. Small caps just hit oversold territory at the end of November. The Russell 2000 fell well below an RSI of 30. Take a look... We haven't seen this type of sharp drop in small caps since March 2020. Back then, the Russell 2000's RSI fell all the way below 25. And it just happened again last month. Since 1990, when the Russell 2000 has fallen below and rallied back above an RSI of 25, small caps have tended to soar. This strategy has led to big outperformance compared to a buy-and-hold strategy. Check it out... An 8% gain in a typical year isn't bad... especially over a 30-year period. But history shows buying after setups like today's can lead to even better results... Similar cases have led to roughly 3% gains in three months, 11% gains in six months, and a 21% gain over the next year. That's more than double the typical buy-and-hold return. In short, the recent downswing in small caps is overblown. Instead of a further decline, we should expect to see a double-digit rally over the next year. The simplest way to take advantage of this opportunity is the iShares Russell 2000 Fund (IWM). It tracks the benchmark Russell 2000 small-cap index. And it's the easiest way to profit from a small-cap boom in 2022. Given today's setup, that makes it a fund to consider as we head into the new year. Good investing, Chris Igou Further Reading When everyone is piling into the same position, it's a smart idea to bet against the crowd. Recently, we saw traders make major bets on one type of stock. But history showed that taking the other side of the trade has led to major upside over the short term... Read more here. "Most stocks simply can't become 10-baggers in a three- to five-year window," Mike Barrett writes. But when these two factors combine, massive gains are possible for small-cap stocks in a short span... Get the full story here: Expect Great Investments When These Two Collide. |
INSIDE TODAY'S
DailyWealth Premium The small-cap company leading the automotive revolution... With a small-cap boom possible in 2022, it's a great time to own growth stocks today. And one company is sure to profit along the way... Click here to get immediate access. Market Notes HOSPITALS DEPEND ON THIS COMPANY TO OPERATE Today's company is benefiting from the importance of medical care... According to Dr. David "Doc" Eifrig, health care companies have one of the world's greatest tailwinds at their backs... Roughly 70 million Baby Boomers will be age 65 or older by 2030. More seniors means more money spent on health care... which has led to big gains for stocks in this sector. Take today's company, for example... Vocera Communications (VCRA) is a health care communications company. It's best known for the Vocera Badge – a wearable device that allows employees to communicate at the touch of a button. But it also has a suite of apps and a workflow platform that help manage day-to-day tasks, like checking a patient's vitals, viewing lab results, and keeping track of staff. Nearly 2,000 health care facilities worldwide depend on Vocera's products and services. And that's great for sales... In the most recent quarter, revenue came in at $63.6 million – up 18% year over year. VCRA is up more than 200% in just the past two years. It also recently hit a fresh all-time high. And as long as the health care industry relies on Vocera's products, this uptrend will likely continue...
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