Socialists' budget brinkmanship

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In today’s edition:

- S&D get serious
- Brunner gets deported
- Patriots get climate bill
- Schengen at 40

How much more can the Socialists & Democrats take? And what are their options as the new right-wing alternative majority chips away at their once-central place in the EU power balance?
They say that this time their threat to block the next seven-year EU budget is not just empty words.
S&D MEPs were left disappointed by Ursula von der Leyen at a closed-door meeting in Strasbourg yesterday, as she outlined her broad plans for the 2028-2034 budget cycle, ahead of the official proposal on 16 July.
The centre-left group wants the Commission to rethink its plan to merge all EU cash into a single envelope per country. The Socialists also want a larger EU budget, more EU taxes, more common debt, standalone regional and agricultural funds, and a protected European Social Fund.
“We will not be shy to walk away from this important file,” said Dutch Socialist Mohammed Chahim. S&D’s Carla Tavares, one of two lead MEPs on the budget, said von der Leyen gave them no “relevant news” in the meeting.

Jean-Marc Germain, a French Socialist, said it was “not normal” that only von der Leyen – and no other commissioner – seemed to know what was in the proposal. Though he rejected my query about the credibility of the Socialists’ red lines.
Last year, when Socialist commissioner Teresa Ribera was threatened with rejection by the right, the S&D forgot their own initial refusal to let Giorgia Meloni’s pick Raffaele Fitto become an executive vice president of the Commission.
"It was complicated for the College of Commissioners, for budget it’s simple,” Germain said. “Either we have our priorities and no red lines crossed, and it’s a yes, or it’s a no and there is no budget. That makes the threat credible."
Only the unveiling next Wednesday will tell if von der Leyen takes them seriously or not.

The S&D has problems closer to home too. Fewer than 20 of the 136 Socialist MEPs showed up to listen to Mette Frederiksen’s speech in the plenary on Tuesday, even though she is one of only three European leaders from their political family.
Were they all too busy? Or were they perhaps irked by the Danish prime minister’s tough stance on migration – which drew applause from the right of the hemicycle– and her statement that it is negatively impacting the cohesion of Europe’s societies?
Either way, the EPP stuck the boot in. “The resistance in S&D towards Mette Frederiksen will not stand in the way [of us working closely with her],” said its MEP Tomas Tobé.

Magnus Brunner just got a tiny taste of what it’s like to be deported. A high-profile EU visit to Libya ended in diplomatic chaos on Tuesday when the European commissioner for migration and the interior ministers of Italy, Greece, and Malta were expelled upon arrival in Benghazi.
Sources in Athens told Euractiv that the incident may be linked to the fact that the European delegation first visited Tripoli – the seat of Libya’s internationally-recognised government.

Greens, Socialists, and liberals are scrambling to sideline the far-right Patriots for Europe group after it secured control of the EU’s 2040 climate goal bill. With a crucial vote tomorrow, the centre-right EPP holds the balance.
“The Patriots can be outmanoeuvred and we will do everything we can to outmanoeuvre them,” said Green MEP Michael Bloss, warning they aim to “sabotage everything” on climate. Fast-tracking the law could limit their influence, added Renew’s Pascal Canfin. Read more.

The ECR and EPP groups brought Iranian human rights activists and journalists to the Parliament yesterday, calling for the EU to do something before the nuclear deal expires and it’s too late to pressure the Islamic Republic.
The regime’s revolutionary guard has this week called for mass executions as it cracks down after the recent war with Israel and bombing by America. Most of the speakers said that France, Germany, the UK and the EU should make sure the “snapback” UN sanctions on Iran are implemented swiftly. “Appeasement has to end somewhere,” said Sima Sabet, founder of Pulse Media.
“The question should be put to Kaja Kallas. Is she going to act on this?” Swedish ECR’s Charlie Weimers, a co-host of the event, said.

Donald Trump said yesterday that the EU will “probably” receive a letter setting its new US tariff rate on Thursday.
“They [the EU] are very tough but now they're being very nice to us,” Trump told reporters. “We'll see what happens. We're probably two days off from sending them a letter. We are talking to them. I just want you to know a letter means a deal."
The comments come amid frantic efforts by EU officials to avoid Trump’s sweeping “reciprocal tariffs”, which were set to enter into force on Wednesday before being delayed to 1 August. On Tuesday, he said tariffs of up to 200% on pharmaceutical products will be announced “very soon”, also flagging a new 50% levy on copper.

GERMANY
A Berlin court dealt another blow to Chancellor Merz’s crackdown on migration, as it ruled on Tuesday that the German government must issue visas to an Afghan family. The family is part of a resettlement scheme providing visas for some local staff who worked for Germany’s armed forces before the return of the Taliban regime. Merz’s government has vowed to end the scheme, which has left some 2,400 Afghans stranded in Pakistan, where they were waiting for their resettlement to Germany.
FRANCE
A few months after being barred from standing in any election for five years, Marine Le Pen has submitted an application to the European Court of Human Rights, requesting the “urgent” suspension of the provisional enforcement of the sentence. The leader of the National Rally (RN) MPs in the National Assembly has already appealed the decision handed down by the Paris Criminal Court and is expected to know the outcome within a year.
SWEDEN
In a major breach of security, members of Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson’s personal protection team have openly monitored their activity using popular fitness tracking app Strava, Swedish media revealed on Tuesday. Read more.
ITALY
Italy’s Constitutional Court ruled on Tuesday that the administrative detention of NGO rescue ships under the Italian government’s controversial migration decree is constitutional. Read more.
POLAND
Polish Defence Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz on Tuesday called on those who wish to "defend Poland's borders" to join official services amid escalating border tensions and a rising number of self-organized vigilante patrols. Read more.
CZECHIA
Several Czech companies continue to export goods to Russia in violation of EU sanctions, Czech news site Deník N reported, citing customs data and a list from the office of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Read more.

There is little to celebrate for Schengen's 40th birthday as the EU's free movement zone is being increasingly undone, one checkpoint at a time.

Digital and consumer rights NGOs are urging the Commission not to reopen or delay implementation of the AI Act, as part of wider efforts by the EU executive to simplify the digital rulebook – warning that public trust is at stake. Read more.
Here’s why a serene and smiling Ursula von der Leyen won't be sweating about the motion of censure that aims to torpedo her European Commission on Thursday.
Emmanuel Macron urged the UK to stand “shoulder to shoulder” with the EU as Europe looks to reduce its dependencies on foreign powers amid geopolitical upheaval, in a speech to British parliamentarians on Tuesday. Read more.
The European Commission plans to launch a major industrial policy fund by merging up to 14 budget lines in its 2028–2034 budget plan, a draft seen by Euractiv shows. Read more.

EU Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra tells Euractiv his plan to slash greenhouse gas emissions to a tenth of 1990 levels is not only feasible, but essential for Europe's economy and security.

- Mark Rutte will travel to Berlin on Wednesday to commemorate the 70th anniversary of Germany’s NATO membership. At 4 p.m., he will hold a joint press conference with Chancellor Friedrich Merz
- The European Parliament holds its plenary session in Strasbourg, featuring debates on the conclusions of the recent European Council, lessons from Budapest Pride, EU-US trade negotiations, wildfire preparedness, the peace agreement between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda, outcomes of the Seville Development Conference, the 51st anniversary of the Turkish invasion of Cyprus, and human rights violations in Dubai, the Central African Republic, and Syria
- Pedro Sánchez will appear before Spain’s parliament to address efforts aimed at preventing new corruption measures.

Contributors: Stefano Porciello, Sarantis Michalopoulos, Thomas Moller-Nielsen, Nick Alipour, Laurent Geslin, Charles Szumski, Alessia Peretti, Aneta Zachová.

Editors: Vince Chadwick and Sofia Mandilara.