SoftBank went slack | Disney's on the right track |

Hi John, here's what you need to know for May 12th in 3:12 minutes.

🗣 Everyone else is whispering about it – but on the Finimize Podcast, we’re discussing the banking crisis loud and clear. So tune in to the latest episode, and get the full 411 from Simplify’s Mike Green. Listen in here

Today's big stories

  1. SoftBank’s Vision Funds were still on a losing streak last quarter
  2. Goldman dropped some wisdom about where to find stock winners – Read Now
  3. Disney took a baby step towards its profitability target last quarter, but it has a ways to go

Soft Spot

Soft Spot

What’s going on here?

SoftBank was looking pretty vulnerable last quarter, reporting on Thursday that its Vision Funds were in the red once again.

What does this mean?

SoftBank’s investors had every reason to be hopeful. The firm’s Vision Fund business oversees the biggest tech-focused investment funds in the world – and with tech valuations on the rebound, they were probably counting on the rising tide to raise the firm’s leaky boat. No dice, though: some big investments did jump (like South Korean e-commerce company Coupang), but ill-starred private investments still clipped its wings. See, SoftBank marked down the value of its private holdings – the bulk of its investments – by about $3.9 billion, overshadowing its public holdings’ $1.9 billion gain. The resulting “accolade” was the corporate equivalent of a dunce’s cap: a record loss for the whole year, after a fifth straight quarter in the red for those once high-flying funds.

Why should I care?

For markets: Still just window shopping.

SoftBank needs to be careful it’s got the cash to cover debts and other expenses. And while auctioning off parts of its Alibaba stake has helped so far, the firm seems to be itching to strike a bolder, less defensive stance now – and that’s going to require deeper pockets. Taking its chip-designing titan ARM public will help raise some funds – but right now it’s at the mercy of the flailing markets. The upshot: banks are touting a super-wide valuation range for ARM, anywhere between $30 and $70 billion.

The bigger picture: Boarding the AI train.

SoftBank’s hoping to splash that cash on AI first and foremost. And that’s no wonder: the technology’s seeping into sectors left, right, and center, from aiding drug discoveries to improving educational offerings. But given the hype – and the fact SoftBank’s not exactly early to the party – it’ll have to work extra hard to sort the wheat from the chaff.

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Analyst Take

How To Find Winning Stocks, According To Goldman Sachs

How To Find Winning Stocks, According To Goldman Sachs

By Russell Burns, Analyst

If you’re hunting for a savvy stock play, Goldman Sachs says you’re going to want to look beyond the trusty old index ETFs that’ve served you well in the past.

The investment bank says the US economy will probably avoid a recession this year, but stock markets will probably mostly fumble along.

And investors who want to do well will have to hunt for “alpha” (not “beta”) opportunities.

So that’s today’s Insight: where to look for stock market winners, according to Goldman Sachs.

Read or listen to the Insight here

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Baby Steps

Baby Steps

What’s going on here?

Disney’s results, out on Wednesday, showed the media giant’s stepping – not leaping – toward its profit-improving targets.

What does this mean?

Let’s not beat around the bush: Disney’s streaming service lost four million subscribers last quarter – on the face of it, a serious bummer for investors. But the firm’s price hikes and newfound frugality meant the division’s losses ultimately shrank way more than expected. That, plus a regal performance from Disney’s theme parks – which scored a $1.7 billion profit, 50% above pre-pandemic levels – helped overall results inch in above expectations. Mind you, there was an important hiccup: revenue dropped 7% annually for the firm’s old-school TV business, with more and more folk ditching traditional television – and that “cord-cutting” could spell trouble.

Why should I care?

Zooming in: Knight in tarnished armor.

It’s not a surprise that cord-cutting has got Disney’s old stalwart, the traditional TV business, on the wane. But with streaming – the firm’s knight in shining armor – losing viewers too, Disney’s facing a real challenge. See, it’s not clear whether the firm’s current mishmash of a decaying old TV business and an unprofitable streaming service will ever hit the heights of Disney’s pre-streaming TV days. And that uncertainty’s got investors second-guessing whether the firm’s truly a clever long-term bet.

The bigger picture: Park life.

A trip to Disney’s parks costs a pretty penny these days – so with 7% more Mickey fans making the pilgrimage last quarter compared to the year before, you might wonder whether this whole impending-recession shtick is more fiction than fact. After all, splurge-worthy vacations can be decent indicators of the economy’s overall health – and on Disney’s evidence alone, everything seems fine and dandy. But cyclical businesses like theme parks can turn on a dime, so you’d be wise to keep an eye on future attendance stats for signs of any little cracks.

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💬 Quote of the day

"Among those whom I like or admire, I can find no common denominator, but among those whom I love, I can: all of them make me laugh."

– W. H. Auden (an English-born poet and man of letters)
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🌍 Finimize Live

🥳 Coming Up In The Next Week...

All events in UK time.


⚡️ The Great Energy Transition: 5pm, May 16th
🏡 Is It A Good Time To Invest In Real Estate? 5pm, May 17th
🏠 Alternative Ways To Invest In Real Estate: 1pm, May 18th


👀 And After That...

✅ Three Industries That Thrive In A Downturn: 5pm, May 23rd
🚀 A Beginner's Guide To Prop Trading: 5pm, May 25th
🎉 Modern Investor Summit 2023: 12pm, December 5th and 6th

🎯 On Our Radar

1. Alone again, naturally. Our sky-high rents could be down to solo living.

2. A striking problem. In the age of AI, writers are canaries in the coal mine for workers' rights.

3. Bubbles, not bites. Using the right soap can help ward off mosquitoes.

4. Reel-y expensive. Movie theaters swallow way more dough than you might expect.

5. Boozy bruising. The inventor of ibuprofen tested his wonder drug on his own hangover.

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Image credits: Michael Vi shutterstock | Disney

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