The ANC and the Democratic Alliance remain the country’s political poles, but they’re losing ground to more extremist parties on the left and right. This is not a winner-takes-all kind of story. In an April 10 by-election in a Soweto ward, the ruling African National Congress (ANC) won comfortably with 72 percent of the vote. But in this ANC stronghold — and the largest township in South Africa — the victory actually marked a 5 percent loss in votes compared to 2016. Upstart conservative and church-backed African Transformation Movement (ATM), meanwhile, reaped almost exactly that 5 percent difference in votes. Just over 600 miles away in a predominantly White Afrikaner ward in the coastal town of George, the Democratic Alliance (DA), the country’s official opposition party, retained its seat with 73 percent of the vote — down from 92 percent three years ago. There, the conservative Afrikaner-led Freedom Front Plus (FF+) saw its share rise from 3 to 17 percent. These margins of victory are wide enough to point to the likely result of national elections when South Africa goes to the polls on May 8, namely that the ANC is expected to win under President Cyril Ramaphosa while the DA is likely to retain its status as the main opposition party. But they also indicate that a slow but definite shift is underway. The declining vote share of both major parties in recent bypolls shows that the ANC and DA are losing ground to parties with more extreme positions. |