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April 2020
By Clem Sunter
Clem has written an interesting article on some of the scenarios facing us as we try and plan for the future. I have summarized below, the full article appears in:
https://www.biznews.com/inside-covid-19/2020/04/20/covid-19-lockdown-scenarios-clem-sunter
Steuart Pennington
The latest coronavirus scenarios: walking the tightrope
At the beginning of March this year, I wrote an article painting three coronavirus scenarios for the world at large over the foreseeable future: “Much Ado About Nothing”, “The Camel’s Straw” and “Spain Again”.
At the time, the number of global infections caused by the virus was 100 000 and deaths 3 000. Today the respective figures are 2 400 000 and 165 000.
So, looking towards the remainder of this year and into the next one, which scenario is likely to play out in reality? In answering this question, I will add one further scenario which I call “Tightrope”. As you will see, it is a challenging alternative but these are unprecedented times.
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We thank our partners for your support, enabling us to deliver services during the past 21 days of the COVID-19 pandemic and Lockdown. You have enabled us to serve during the State of Disaster, 27th March 2019 until the 16th April 2020, as per the attached report.
Childline Gauteng has answered 12 503 calls in the past 21 days: 662 pertained to COVID-19 and 647 requests for information about services (including COVID related health information); 329 abuse cases; 99 neglected children plus 70 poverty related concerns; 159 family problems plus 77 legal family issues; 539 smaller categories; and the balance of callers who are silent, hang up or test the counsellors responses before disclosing their problems.
The desperation and urgency of callers is increasing daily as the Lockdown continues into the second phase: increased fear and panic; abusive behaviour – to women and children; poverty and immediate hunger; separation from parents; shack fires; run away children; parents drinking and not obeying the lockdown regulations; and many more.
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The fantastic four who are no longer in lockdown, South Africa’s Shamwari comes to the rescue
Bringing some much needed good news to these uncertain times, international wildlife charity Born Free is delighted to announce its most recent successful rescues and rehoming projects – two cheetah cubs from the illegal wildlife trade in Ethiopia, and two leopards from the failed Bloemfontein Zoo in South Africa.
The male and female cheetah cubs, which are yet to be named, are thought to be siblings and are only months old. They were seized by the Somali regional authorities in Ethiopia, having most likely been taken from the wild to meet the demands of the pet trade in the Middle East.
After confiscation, the cubs were being cared for at a local police station. Born Free was notified of their situation and were able to give them a lifetime home at Ensessa Kotteh, its wildlife sanctuary in Ethiopia, once all relevant permissions had been issued authorising their relocation.
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By Justin Foxton
By this time, we are moving into phase 2 of isolation. Phase 1 was all about denial; tearing around the place exercising, homeworking, cooking, feeding, cleaning, meditating, Zooming/Skyping/Teaming, giving, writing, responding, watching, listening, reading. On and on we did.
The mood is shifting
A couple of weeks in, and the mood is – thank heavens – starting to shift. Can you feel it too? We are moving beyond our own personal need for safety and control – trying to maintain life-as-normal – towards an acceptance of our collective vulnerability as humanity. We are beginning to look out at the very serious consequences that this crisis is having on the global economy and on people’s lives. The loss of income is now biting many. Hunger is rising along with the many social consequences that this brings. Millions of children are officially not learning any longer.
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In Response to the Prof. Jonathan Janssen article the DoE writes:
THE 2020 SCHOOL YEAR IS NOT LOST YET, THE DEPARTMENT OF BASIC EDUCATION HAS A COMPREHENSIVE RECOVERY PLAN.
By Elijah Mhlanga, spokesperson for the Department of Basic Education
There is currently much information and policy advice relating to schooling and the COVID-
19 pandemic are being circulated on social media and other platforms. There is, understandably a lot of interest and anxiety regarding schooling in the country post the lockdown and the focus on what will happen to the Grade 12 learners, in particular, given the final National Senior Certificate Examinations.
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Brand South Africa notes – A time of challenges and firsts as Moody’s downgrades South Africa amid COVID-19 global crisis
Johannesburg, March 28, 2020: As South Africa entered a twenty-one day, national lockdown to combat the spread of the Coronavirus, the country entered a time of unprecedented firsts at the scale of another historical first moment when, for example, Nelson Mandela walked out of the Victor Verster prison – as a free man!
For the first time in our democracy, government had to invoke the National Disaster Act, for the first time certain citizen rights had to be limited in order to enable social distancing so as to curtail the spread of a virus, for the first time a president of the Democratic Republic of South Africa donned the camouflage uniform of the South African National Defence Force, in his capacity as Commander in Chief, as he addressed soldiers about to embark on a mission of mercy to safeguard our society from an invisible enemy.
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Emitters of carbon dioxide:
SA ranks 13th @ 502 million tons. China @ 1 – 10, 600 m tons; USA @ 2 – 5 400 m tons; India @ 3 – 2 200 m tons and UK @ 14 – 460 m tons, Australia @ 16 – 400 m tons.
Source: Economist (2015 figures).
COVID-19 Global Survey:
Of 108 countries included in the global survey of COVID-19 deaths per 100,000 population, SA ranks 70th in terms of cumulative number of deaths @ 13 (Italy 1 @ 17 127, Spain 2 @ 14 054, US 3 @ 12 722, Jamaica 108 @ 3). Deaths as a % of population SA ranks in the bottom 2%.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality
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