Good afternoon and welcome back to Firepower,

We’ll be publishing daily all next week to keep you informed on the NATO and EU summits. In today’s edition, we look ahead to those major rendez-vous.

Things in The Hague will kick off with a press briefing from NATO’s Mark Rutte on Monday afternoon. World leaders are scheduled to gather on Tuesday evening for dinner at the royal Huis ten Bosch palace, and a single relatively short working session will follow on Wednesday before the summit wraps up with an early afternoon press conference. Trump will jet back to DC, while the European allies head to Brussels for an EU-only summit on Thursday, where discussions will focus on coordinating military purchases.

The big thing to watch is how Trump reacts to Spain’s last-minute refusal to get on board with higher spending. We dig into that in the newsletter below, along with a dive into details of NATO’s new spending targets, a close look at the European Commission’s defence simplification package, a chat with a top Boeing Defense executive and more

What's in today's edition:

SÁNCHEZ THE SPOILER? Spain’s Pedro Sánchez came out as NATO’s lone public dissenter on Donald Trump’s demands to raise the defence spending targets to 5% of GDP with a letter to NATO’s Mark Rutte just days ahead of the summit in The Hague. We suspect the socialist prime minister only dared to say what many of his fellow Europeans think – but speaking that truth aloud risks enraging Trump, the one thing everyone else has been desperately trying to avoid.

PLACATING THE US PRESIDENT has been the overriding priority, even for leaders who privately share Sánchez’s views, lest an unhappy Trump yank crucial American security guarantees. It’s true that getting to 5% would be excruciatingly painful for some of NATO’s many spending laggards, even with creative accounting. Some have already resorted to scrounging under couch cushions for loose coins just to hit the 2% mark.

Everyone (except apparently Sánchez) figured that pledges of big, beautiful new numbers would keep the US president smiling in The Hague, even as some diplomats work to push the actual deadlines to deliver far enough into the future that Trump will be long gone by then. A problem, as they say in Spanish, for mañana.

WHAT NOW?! Sánchez threw the whole concept into question, killing the vibe for the summit. As two NATO diplomats complained to Firepower on Friday, Spain isn’t proposing an alternate solution. Instead, the politically embattled Sánchez appears to be catering to domestic concerns, including satisfying the NATO sceptics in his left-wing junior coalition partner.

NATO ambassadors are gathering again this afternoon – and diplomats are urgently awaiting fresh ideas from Rutte on how to find a compromise. The week ahead just got more uncertain – and more interesting.

ZELELNSKYY’s PLANS STILL TBD. As we were hitting “send” on this newsletter, it was still unclear if Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy would be breaking bread with NATO leaders on Tuesday evening. Zelenskyy will be in The Hague this week and scored an invite to the dinner, along with other alliance partners, as two people with knowledge of the plans confirmed. But he hasn’t yet replied with an official RSVP. A possible meeting between Zelenskyy and Ukraine supporters on Wednesday also remains up in the air. The Ukrainian president, who featured prominently at recent NATO summits, was squeezed off the rest of this year’s programme by European allies fearful of annoying Trump. Zelenskyy will meet NATO’s Rutte and the leaders of various EU institutions on Tuesday. He’s scheduled to make an appearance on Thursday at the European Council gathering in Brussels, but it’s unclear if he’ll beam in by video or show up in person.

2029 REVIEW CLAUSE. Allies would have a full decade – until 2035, rather than the proposed 2032 – to meet NATO's new 5% of GDP defence spending target, according to the Elysée Palace. But some countries would be happier with an earlier 2032 deadline (especially the big-spending US, Poland and the Baltic states). As a compromise, the NATO countries are considering setting two deadlines, according to the Elysée and two other sources. An earlier 2029 deadline – also the date for revisions of NATO’s new capability targets – would serve as a “review clause” on the 3.5% core defence target, while 2035 would remain the deadline to hit the full 5% target.

Alliance chief Rutte has said getting military forces up to scratch for their reliability targets will require hitting the 3.5% mark (though Spain says that’s not true). The revision clause would aim at keeping spending and military targets aligned and coordinated. Dual deadlines might push off the final 5%, but it also keeps the door open to NATO military commanders raising capability targets again, as one source noted, potentially warranting even higher spending.

COUNTING FOOD AS DEFENCE? NATO allies settled on a working definition for what will count as “defence-related” spending for the soon-to-come new 1.5% of GDP target during discussions on Wednesday, according to a source involved in the talks. What’s in? A broad concept of “resilience” that includes food and water storage, as well as military aid for Ukraine (as Euractiv reported). Also tallied: Money spent on cybersecurity, transport infrastructure, countering disinformation and security against “hybrid” issues like terrorism. The precise details of what counts will remain confidential (just like under NATO's current 2% target).

ANTI-NATO PROTESTS. While much of Europe’s political class has been professing their commitment to NATO, not everyone is so enamoured. The left-wing Resist NATO Coalition called a “People’s Summit” on Saturday in Amsterdam, followed by a Sunday demonstration in The Hague. Israel’s strikes on Iran are a “taste of what’s to come from NATO’s warmongering plans”, said one of the coalition’s leading figures, Oz Karahan.

The global race for access to satellite communication systems is heating up.

YOUR OMNIBUS GUIDE. The Commission unveiled its long-awaited defence omnibus on Tuesday that promised to slash regulations and ease the EU’s defence industry expansion. The Commission plans to negotiate three substantial changes to EU defence and environmental regulations: New permitting regulations that'd designate a single authority in each EU country to handle permit requests from defence companies and set a 60 day deadline for decisions; possible exceptions for the sector from some EU environmental regulations long requested by industry; and reworked EU defence procurement rules to cut paperwork on contracts worth less than €900,000.

Those changes still need to be worked out with EU capitals and the Parliament, but the Commission has already pledged more changes to come as part of a “fully-fledged review” of the procurement directive in 2026. The Commission also sought to clarify sustainable investment guidelines to boost the defence sector (with a notice and a revised list of “controversial weapons”), and modified rules of access to the InvestEU fund to channel more investments into the defence sector.

EDIP FINALE. After more than a year of deadlock and drama, the Commission’s cornerstone plan for revamping the European armaments industry will get the official endorsement from EU ambassadors on Monday, according to two diplomatic sources close to the file. France has been battling to freeze non-European defence firms with factories in Europe out the programme. The final text, seen by Euractiv, strikes a compromise that largely keeps strict eligibility rules favouring EU contractors in the programme, but adds exemptions for foreign ammunition and missile manufacturers under certain conditions.

That’s not enough flexibility for 10 EU countries, who argued in a joint letter that “the EU defence industry still depends on critical components, technologies and know-how from like-minded third countries, in particular transatlantic allies”. The dissenters, however, aren’t expected to derail final approval, and negotiations with the Parliament are set to start next month.

EUCO CONCLUSIONS. Leaked early draft conclusions for next week’s European Council meeting include calls for “rapid progress” on the new defence omnibus, coordination among EU countries to implement commitments made at the NATO summit.

EU INNOVATION FUND UNCHANGED? The Commission’s widely anticipated mid-term review of the EDF, the main EU programme for supporting defence industry R&D, didn’t give a clear idea of how it might evolve under the EU’s next seven-year budget, which starts in 2028. The Commission acknowledged the defence industry’s key concerns – uncertainty around purchases of products developed under the programme and the unreliability of EU countries as co-financers – but didn’t say how to resolve them. It doesn’t at all address several other ideas that have been floating around the Brussels defence bubble over the past two years, such as revamping the list of subsidies to focus on large-scale projects or prioritising direct awards over competition among the industry.

BOEING’s EUROPEAN ENGAGEMENT. Steve Parker, the interim CEO of Boeing Defense, Space & Security, told a small group of journalists (including Firepower) at the Paris Air Show that the American aerospace giant is interested in more deeply integrating with European military customers – including potentially handing over design authority for certain products. Parker said the Boeing Defence Australia team has the design authority for its MQ28 drone, and the “same model can be replicated” with Europe. “We are right there with [the Europeans] to help develop their own indigenous sovereign capability,” he said.

Boeing isn’t alone among American defence contractors eager to hold onto European customers by accommodating their push for a bit more defence autonomy from the US. A top executive from Raytheon, maker of Patriot missiles, told Euractiv they’re increasing their production thanks to a growing presence in Europe – and Lockheed Martin is pursuing a similar strategy.

LATEST FCAS TROUBLES. The FCAS next-generation fighter jet project backed by France, Germany and Spain continues to hit turbulence with ongoing design disagreements between Airbus and Dassault, the project’s two primary aerospace firms. Soon after Dassault’s boss asserted his firm’s leadership position in an interview, Airbus’ head of air power, Jean-Brice Dumont acknowledged that “there are difficulties in the execution” of the design phase. The project has long struggled with competing requirements from the participating countries. France would like the jet to be able to carry French nuclear weapons and land on aircraft carriers, while Germany has little need for naval capability.

FRANCE and SPAIN threw the Airbus A400M Atlas a major lifeline this week by signing a letter of intent at the Paris Air Show to buy a total of seven more of the military transports. That should keep production for the Airbus aircraft, which Airbus had warned was in danger due to low orders, alive at least through 2028. The military transport is seen as a European rival to the American C-130 Hercules.

SLOVAWKWARD. Prime Minister Robert Fico caused quite the stir when he hinted at possibly pulling his country out of NATO on Tuesday, saying “neutrality would suit Slovakia in a time of senseless armament”. That’ll make for some awkward exchanges for the brash right-wing populist at next week’s NATO summit, where the allies – Slovakia included – are set to commit to higher defence spending.

SWEDEN will take on debt to help fund its military build-up. All eight parties in Swedish parliament backed a deal to borrow SEK 300 billion (about €28.5 billion) to raise core defence spending to 3.5% of GDP over the next five years. Civil defence will get about SEK 50 billion of the total.

AUSTRALIA will negotiate a security and defence partnership with the EU, similar to the deal Brussels struck with the United Kingdom in May. It could enable Australia’s defence industry to join the EU's SAFE defence industry booster programme. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said the agreement “will benefit both our industries and our security”. CANADA is planning to ink a similar pact on Monday at the EU-Canada summit.

Emmanuel Macron posted that picture on his Instagram account, in hopes of drumming up interest in the French-made fighter jet.

European Union

European Commission

• Technological Sovereignty, Security and Democracy Commissioner Henna Virkkunen will present a Strategy on Space Economy and the EU Space Act on Wednesday, 25 June
• EU Defence chief Andrius Kubilius will meet on Monday, 23 June with two defence technology executives, ICEYE CEO Rafal Modrzewski and EM&E Group CEO Javier Escribano. Kubilius will also meet with Gen. Seán Clancy, chair of the European Union Military Committee, Monday. Kubilius's full agenda is here
• Commission President Ursula von der Leyen attends NATO leaders dinner in The Hague on Tuesday, 24 June. Also on Tuesday, von der Leyen is separately scheduled to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy together with Council President Antonio Costa and NATO chief Mark Rutte. Von der Leyen’s full agenda is here
• EU top diplomat Kaja Kallas’s agenda is here

Council

• EU-Canada summit, with von der Leyen and Costa on Monday, 23 June
• Foreign affairs ministers meet for FAC on Monday, 23 June
• EU affairs ministers meet for GAC on Tuesday, 24 June
• EU summit on Thursday, 26 June and Friday, 27 June. The agenda will be available here
• Last formal meetings of Coreper II under the Polish Presidency on Monday, 23 June (when EDIP is expected to be formally approved) and on Friday, 27 June
• Political Security Committee on Tuesday, 24 June and Wednesday, 25 June
• Working Party on Defence Industry on Wednesday, 25 June

EU Parliament

• The SEDE committee will host an extraordinary meeting on Monday, 23 June at 18-19:15. SEDE will meet again on Wednesday, 25 June for a joint hearing with the FISC titled “The European Defence Union: Tax Matters” from 14:30-16:30
• SEDE MEPs will then meet on Thursday, 26 June from 9-12:30 for an exchange of views with Moldovan Defence Minister Anatolie Nosatîi and Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, the chair of the NATO Military Committee

NATO

• NATO hosts its Public Forum Tuesday-Wednesday, 24-25 June, with various panel discussions
• The NATO Summit Industry Forum on Tuesday, 24 June, follow online here
• NATO summit starts on Tuesday, 24 June with two working dinners of foreign affairs ministers at 19:00, including a NATO-Ukraine Council with Ukraine’s foreign affairs minister, and of defence ministers on the topic of defence production
• NATO leaders meet at 20:00 for dinner with leaders of the EU, South Korea, Japan, New Zealand and Australia, Ukraine invited
• The single NATO summit working session takes place Wednesday, 25 June from 10:30 to 13:00
• NATO chief Mark Rutte press conference scheduled at 14:00, followed by national debriefs

Events

• The EPC will host an event on Tuesday, 24 June from 14:30-16:30 reviewing the Polish presidency with analysts and as well as MEP Michał Szczerba
• ECFR webinar – Defence Without America? What Europeans and aren’t ready for on Monday, 23 June
• Eastern Circles will host a breakfast on the margins of the NATO summit in the Hague on Tuesday, 24 June, with Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, former commander of the NATO Allied Land Command
• RUSI webinar – The evolution of Russian Nuclear Thinking on Wednesday, 26 June
• Tocqueville Conversations on Friday, 27-Saturday, 28 June with a speech from Andrius Kubilius on Saturday, 28 June
  

Thank you for reading.

FIREPOWER was brought to you by Euractiv’s defence team, with additional reporting by Laurent Geslin and Nicoletta Ionta.

You can contact us at defence@euractiv.com. Each team member is available at firstname.lastname@euractiv.com.

Follow our coverage here.