And other retail pain

Good morning Voornaam,

It's been a pretty rough week on the markets for most people. We've seen share prices take nasty knocks. As usual, some of those moves look too severe and others don't look like enough punishment was dished out. If the markets perfectly captured every move, none of us would be able to make proper money from following this stuff. In other words, I'm usually grateful for volatility.

Another thing I'm grateful for is SPAR hopefully bringing an end to high-risk offshore deals for South African retailers. Based on the unmitigated disaster of Poland, in which they are literally paying a fortune to give the business away, I am hoping that independent directors of listed companies spend less time worrying about the 10th different board committee and more time asking the questions that actually protect shareholders.

Offshore losses are nothing new to local retailers, with Woolworths as the eternal poster child thanks to David Jones. Sadly, their remaining Australasian business (Country Road) is taking strain as well. That might be manageable if the local business was also working, but the recovery in Fashion Beauty and Home has stalled and thus poor old Woolworths Food is having to carry all the responsibility for growth. They might have endless organic yoghurts, but there's only so much they can achieve for organic growth.

Please, South Africa, let's send the Springboks overseas to represent us and keep our retailers here at home!

In other retail news in Ghost Bites, you'll find an important update from The Foschini Group - where the focus seems to be firmly on margins rather than market share - and Cashbuild, which I hope is on the up from hereon out. Telkom also managed to sneak in there as the non-retail update for the day. 

It was a busy day of important news and you can get all of it right here in Ghost Bites>>>

To lift your head from retail, there are also two brand new podcasts today. The first is a Ghost Wrap, featuring CA Sales Holdings, RCL Foods + Rainbow Chicken (together for the last time), Motus and Bidvest. Made possible by the support of Forvis Mazars, you'll find it here.

The second is a great Magic Markets show that focuses on India and the opportunities there. This is an example of an offshore market where our local corporates should probably be looking, with Sanlam having been invested there for years. Compared to China, it's a fascinating story. Listen to it here>>>

The market is just full of interesting stuff, isn't it? One of the ways to take advantage is through trading short-term moves. This is a different sport to investing, as I've learnt through my IG Markets South Africa demo account. One of the techniques used by successful traders is technical analysis. IG Markets has a great article on the topic that you can read at this link>>>

Have a great day - and don't forget to register for free to attend Unlock the Stock next week with CA Sales Holdings!

FEATURED: The Trader's Handbook Ep 5

IG Markets Episode 5: Pairs trading offers a great opportunity to play one stock off against another, a strategy that means you can take short positions even in a more bullish market. Learn all about it at this link>>>

FEATURED: Mastering your portfolio with ETFs and single stocks

Ghost Stories: Doing your own research is a great concept and all, but how do you actually do it for both ETFs and single stocks? In this podcast with Siyabulela Nomoyi of Satrix, we dug into this topic. Find it here>>>

FEATURED: Magic Markets - The India Opportunity

China is usually the topic of conversation when it comes to fast-growing emerging markets. There are very good reasons to believe that India will play that role going forward. This creates a proper opportunity for investors and corporates alike. Learn more here>>>

FEATURED: Ghost Wrap

Ghost Wrap: In this fast-paced podcast, I covered CA Sales Holdings, RCL Foods + Rainbow Chicken, Motus and Bidvest. Made possible by the support of Forvis Mazars, you can find it here>>>

Local company news:

Ghost Bites: The latest on Cashbuild, SPAR, Telkom, The Foschini Group and Woolworths, along with various Little Bites in Ghost Bites here>>>

Podcasts:

  • Investec Podcast: As part of the Investec No Ordinary Wednesday series, you can enjoy Jeremy Maggs in conversation with Tinus Rautenbach, head of Investec's online platform Clarity, as they discuss the rise of self-directed investing. Find it here>>>
  • Nico Katzke of Satrix: The GNU has driven significant optimism around the South African market. To help us understand where this is playing out and how the carry trade protects the rand, Nico Katzke joined me on Ghost Stories. Find it here>>> 

International Business Snippet:

There is never a dull moment for offshore retailers either, with Dick's Sporting Goods substantially beating estimates for the second quarter. Despite this, the share price came under pressure anyway, even though guidance for the full year has been raised slightly. When a generally risk-off sentiment hits the market, releasing results is like trying to defuse a bomb.

As for Dollar Tree, the share price took a 22% knock on Wednesday as investors fell right out of that tree, thanks to a cut to the full-year outlook. If a share price takes strain when guidance is only slightly increased, you can safely guess what happens when guidance is dropped.

Our report on Ulta Beauty is now available to our Magic Markets Premium subscribers. If you're keen to get the latest on the company, as well as access to our vast library of stock research notes based on our work in the markets and what we do with our own money, then take out a subscription for just R99/month. Thank me later.

IG Morning Call: daily macroeconomic update

Weaker US economic data overnight has raised the prospect of a 50-basis point cut instead of a 25-basis point cut in September. The news has kept major equity benchmarks on the back foot, although they have started to consolidate recent losses and are trading mostly flat this morning.

The JSE All-Share Index is expected to open flat to marginally lower as well.

US Treasury Yields and the the dollar have softened along with the US data, helping the rand claw back some of the previous day's losses.

Gold has ticked higher supported by the weaker dollar.

Oil prices have continued to drop on the prospect of weaker global demand and Libyan supply disruptions abating.

Traders will want to watch out for ADP Employment data out of the US later this afternoon.


Key Indicators: USD/ZAR R17.88/$ | US 10yr 3.76% | Gold $2,497/oz | Platinum $908/oz | Brent Crude $77.71

The macroeconomic update is based on IG's morning call update