Since the breakdown of peace negotiations in December, the Rwanda-backed rebel group M23 has made significant advances in eastern DRC. Late last month, they seized Goma, the capital of North Kivu state. Last week, M23 quickly broke a ceasefire pledge and launched a new offensive towards South Kivu’s capital of Bukavu.
As the horrifying news that hundreds of female inmates at Goma’s prison were raped and burned alive after a mass jailbreak last week makes clear, the humanitarian consequences of this violence are profound. Sexual violence as a weapon of war is rife, children are often forced to fight and millions have been displaced over the long history of the conflict – which, all told, has killed about 6 million people. Almost 3,000 have been killed in the most recent fighting, the UN says, a number that is expected to rise – and more than 700,000 have been displaced, adding to 3 million who fled their homes last year.
What is the background to the conflict?
The new spate of violence is the latest episode of a decades-long conflict that has its roots in the 1994 genocide in neighbouring Rwanda, when an estimated 800,000 people from the minority Tutsi ethnic group were slaughtered by the majority Hutus. As the genocide ended, about a million Hutus fearing reprisals fled to eastern DRC, then called Zaire. Rwanda and its new Tutsi-led government sought to exert influence in the region.
After years of relative quiet, M23 – largely drawn from North Kivu’s Tutsi minority population – re-emerged as a regional force in 2021; then, ahead of elections in 2023, president Félix Tshisekedi promised an offensive aimed at quashing the rebellion. That effort quickly ran aground, and M23 – with the support of Rwandan forces – seized new territory again.
As well as longstanding ethnic tensions and the struggle between Rwanda and DRC for influence over the region, the presence of valuable mineral resources is a central factor.
Who are the M23 militia?
The March 23 movement, known as M23, takes its name from a peace agreement signed on that date in 2009, which the rebels say that the DRC government reneged on. They were formed in 2012 from the remnants of a predecessor Tutsi rebel group, which had integrated into the Congolese army.
M23 say that they aim to protect their fellow Tutsis in the region – amid increasing ethnic violence against them – and to secure the recognition of Tutsi refugees forced to flee to Rwanda, Uganda and Burundi as DRC citizens. The DRC government asserts that this cause is a front for Rwandan inference on its sovereign territory. Meanwhile, the rebels say that any peace deal must feature a general amnesty for their members and their reintegration into the DRC army.
Crucially, M23 no longer casts itself as a solely Tutsi group, Mutiga said. “They describe themselves as part of a broader Congolese movement. They are now under the umbrella of an organisation they call the Congo River Alliance, and they recruit outside of their existing community boundaries.”
While M23 have vowed to march across DRC to Kinshasa, a more realistic goal appears to be dominance of the east. “They and Kigali appear to have a long term plan for de facto control beyond the conflict, and when it comes time for negotiations, the M23 aim to secure a form of federalism which grants them a degree of autonomy, a prospect Kinshasa will be loath to entertain.”
M23 has been blamed for many of the atrocities committed during the fighting. This piece by Mark Townsend describes indiscriminate killing and torture; staggering sexual violence; and the execution of children to intimidate civilians.
What role is Rwanda playing in the war?
Officially, the Rwanda government continues to deny any involvement in DRC. But NGOs and the UN say that Rwandan troops have played a critical role. This report by Mark Townsend and Michela Wrong on Friday sets out the compelling evidence that hundreds of Rwandans have died in the fighting.
The tone of official statements has now shifted away from outright denial. “It was implausible for Rwanda to keep insisting they were not present on the ground,” Mutiga said. “But it also indicates how badly relations between Kinshasa and Kigali have deteriorated. Kigali is sending a message: we are the dominant military actor here, and you cannot ignore us.”
Rwanda says that its priority for the region is to take on Hutu militias, which it says pose a genocidal threat against Tutsis. The most prominent of these are the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda, or FDLR.
But eastern DRC’s mineral resources are also a crucial strategic concern: in 2023, DRC produced about 40% of the world’s coltan, crucial for the manufacture of smartphones. Rwanda – which has limited natural resources of its own – is a regional trade hub for coltan and other minerals extracted from eastern DRC.
“Kigali’s approach is fuelled by a sense that history gives it the right to a stake there,” Mutiga said, with many “Rwandophones” – Hutus and Tutsis alike who speak the Rwandan national language, Kinyarwanda – in the region. The border imposed by European colonists split the ancient Rwandan kingdom, denying Kigali access to what in its telling would have been the bulk of its natural resources.
“They have a sense of grievance because of that,” Mutiga said. “But you also have to ask where it would stop if African countries started revisiting colonial borders. The ripple effects could be very dangerous – and there is no question there will be alarm in Africa and beyond that this is creating an exceedingly worrying precedent.”
What is the position of the DRC government?
The failure of Tshisekedi’s offensive has caused public unrest in Kinshasa, about 1,000 miles west of Goma – partly because of the weakness of DRC’s army.
There has also been significant anger at Rwanda, bordering Uganda – accused of tolerating militants in the region – and western powers viewed as having failed to intervene. The Rwandan and Ugandan embassies in Kinshasa were sacked in January, and the US and French embassies also came under attack.
There is meanwhile a growing distrust of Tshisekedi himself, who is trying to change the country’s constitution so that he does not have to step down because of term limits in 2028. He has promised a “vigorous and coordinated response” to the rebel advance.
“Holding talks with M23 would be intensely unpopular in the capital and other parts of DRC,” Mutiga said. “Kinshasa has doubled down and says that it will not negotiate. But when there is little prospect of turning the tide in the conflict without significant bloodshed, that becomes increasingly unsustainable.”
What are the prospects for a return to negotiations?
With fierce fighting on Saturday 35 miles from Bukavu and many civilians fleeing the city already, it appears unlikely that there will be any meaningful peace talks in the near future.
Rwanda relies heavily on western aid to support its economy, and in the past, they have used that leverage to force M23 to stand down. But few expect the same thing to happen again.
“Rwanda has skilfully tried to make itself useful to external partners, particularly the European Union,” Mutiga said. “Its forces are deployed in Mozambique, where they have had success in pushing back militants who threatened an important French Total gas development. The state is seen as an example of somewhere that foreign aid is used efficiently.”
“It is a formidably difficult situation,” he added. “M23 appears very dug in in the areas they have taken. DRC’s army is weak, and they would need the support of external partners to succeed in fighting back. There is a real risk of wider regional war.”
