| More like not-ify, amirite? | Merck may cause itchy feet |

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Hi John, here's what you need to know for February 6th in 3:04 minutes.

☕️ Finimized over a cappuccino at Peyala Café in Dhaka, Bangladesh (23°C/73°F ☀️)

Today's big stories

  1. Audio streaming company Spotify saw its losses increase last quarter, and investors sold off its shares in droves
  2. The cost of shipping goods around the world is tumbling, flashing a warning sign for global trade – Read Now
  3. Pharmaceutical firm Merck announced it’s spinning off some of its products into a new business
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Spotify Scrapped

Spotify Scrapped

What’s Going On Here?

Spotify wrapped up last year with disappointing fourth-quarter earnings on Wednesday, and investors couldn’t believe the streaming giant had ever been their jam.

What Does This Mean?

Spotify added 11 million paying customers in the last three months of 2019, beating investors’ expectations and bringing the total number of subscribers to 124 million – more than double its closest rival. But the streaming giant’s been spending big on podcast startups – including Gimlet Media, Anchor, and Parcast – in an effort to set itself apart, and that splurge might be one reason its losses grew by 70% in 2019. Get used to it, Spotify warned investors: the company will be doubling down on podcast spending in 2020.

Why Should I Care?

For markets: At a loss for words.
Spotify’s stock price fell as much as 5% on Wednesday. But misery loves company: Snapchat-owner Snap Inc. reported lower-than-expected fourth-quarter sales despite adding more users than forecast, and its shares dropped over 10%. Perhaps investors should take this as a learning moment: both companies were loss-making when they first listed their shares on the stock exchange, but that didn’t put anyone off. In fact, the percentage of loss-making companies listing on US stock markets in 2018 was the highest since the dotcom bubble in 2000.

The bigger picture: No mo’ banks.
When Spotify went public in April 2018, it kicked off a new trend among tech companies of listing directly on a stock exchange. In a traditional initial public offering, the company raises money by selling new shares. But in a direct listing, the company simply lists existing shares without selling new ones. That means it avoids paying investment banks for organizing and marketing their public debut – though it also misses out on the windfall that comes from the sale of new shares. Workplace messaging service Slack listed directly not long after Spotify, and it’s rumored Airbnb, GitLab, and Asana might do the same this year.

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2/3 Premium Story

Sinking Ships

The cost of transporting bulky goods like iron ore and coal has dropped by about 80% since September, which suggests global trade is seizing up following the coronavirus outbreak. Our analysts explain why you should care (hint: it’s related to the 2008 crisis).

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3/3

Small Doses

Small Doses

What’s Going On Here?

Pharma giant Merck announced on Wednesday that it’s spinning off a few of its businesses into a new, smaller company. Warning: side effects may include streamlined costs, higher revenues, swelling, paranoia, and/or abnormal sensations.

What Does This Mean?

Merck had a busy Wednesday: the pharma giant announced fourth-quarter earnings, reporting a profit that ever so slightly beat analysts’ expectations. But with sales of its biggest drug coming in well below expectations – $170 million lower, to be precise – its stock still fell.

Merck’s investors, then, may be relieved to hear it’s now planning to fashion a whole new company from its legacy products, women’s health, and “biosimilar” drugs divisions. The new firm should make around $6.5 billion in yearly revenue, and could save the company $1.5 billion in costs by 2024.

Why Should I Care?

For markets: Split personalities.
Merck will hold onto its oncology, vaccine, and hospital/animal health businesses – all of which have a lot more potential for growth. That means investors will soon have a decision to make: they can either invest in low-growth but reliable existing drugs, or in the high-growth but risky research and development business. And since the value of a conglomerate is often less than the sum of its parts, they might be glad of the choice. Merck’s also not the only pharma firm splitting itself in two: the UK’s GlaxoSmithKline – which reported disappointing earnings on Wednesday – has laid out its own plan to split off its consumer healthcare business, while France’s Sanofi might do the same.

The bigger picture: Risky business.
All these new research-focused businesses come fraught with risk, as drugmaker Gilead proved on Tuesday. Its cancer therapy drug Yescarta – acquired as part of a $12 billion buy-out of Kite Pharma – brought in $10 million less than investors expected last year. It’ll be hoping its new coronavirus treatment, currently in trials, will perform better…

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