Welcome to the Capitals by Eddy Wax, with Nicoletta Ionta. We welcome feedback and tips here. Sign up here.

In today’s edition:

- Macron’s Br-entry
- Censure motion scorecard
- Greens rush to 2040
- Fire near Schuman

Emmanuel Macron arrives in the UK today for a three-day state visit, the first afforded to any EU leader since Brexit. But while Macron and Starmer – both struggling domestically – will hold each other tight, one issue threatens to poison the pomp-filled trip: migration.

Read Laurent Geslin’s curtain raiser here.

Starmer is looking to sign a deal with France this week to decrease the number of small boats crossing the Channel. “Smashing the gangs” responsible for transporting more than 20,000 people to the UK so far this year is one of Starmer’s main stated aims – but he needs French police to make that a reality.

The initial proposed agreement would reportedly follow a “one in, one out” migrant exchange programme, Nicoletta explains. France would take back those who cross the Channel, while the UK would accept more migrants from France with legitimate claims to enter.

Talks have run into political and legal hurdles, however, as the deal faces pushback from other EU countries. In a 20 June letter, five southern EU countries, including Italy and Spain, warned the Commission against EU countries signing bilateral migration deals with the UK, fearing others could be left to pick up the slack. Under the EU’s migration rules, asylum-seekers returned to France might then be bounced back to the first EU country they arrived in, most often a southern one.

Ireland’s trade minister said in a statement that it’s “likely there will be some form of tariffs going forward,” between the EU and the US, in the surest sign yet that the EU is about to swallow a 10% tariff on its exports to America.

Simon Harris said last night his understanding was that the US side’s deadline has now slipped to 1 August. Harris said he now hopes for a deal in the “coming days and weeks”.

Trade talks continuing through July is a surprise because tomorrow was for a long time considered the deadline for the EU and US to strike a deal. The EU is still intending to strike a loose so-called framework agreement with Washington soon, which would maintain the 10% tariffs in place, avoid Trump hiking them to 20% or even 50%, and buy the EU some carve-outs for sensitive sectors such as aircraft and alcohol.

One EU diplomat, familiar with the briefing ambassadors received from the Commission on Monday, said that the EU executive sees a choice between accepting an unbalanced deal or accepting prolonged unpredictability. But even if the Commission accepts a deal now, there’s nothing to stop Donald Trump upping the ante in the future at any time.

Socialist leader Iratxe García delivered the most compelling speech during Monday’s debate with Ursula von der Leyen, as the Commission president faces a motion of censure from the far right.

Von der Leyen predictably used her five minutes to rail against the far right and defend her record during the pandemic. García turned the debate into a referendum on Manfred Weber, the EPP parliamentary leader who got von der Leyen elected but has been playing fast and loose with the informal centrist pact ever since. Nicoletta has the whole story here.

Poland reimposed border checks on vehicles from Germany overnight, escalating a tit-for-tat row with Berlin and dealing a fresh blow to Schengen. The move was originally announced last week. The checks add Poland to the list of 11 Schengen countries reintroducing controls.

Delays are expected through early August, just in time to snarl summer holiday traffic and hammer local economies. Business groups are sounding alarms over supply chain and cross-border workforce disruptions. Warsaw says it’s retaliating for Berlin’s own checks, but travellers are paying the price. Read our analysis.

After months of blasting the speed with which the “simplification” of environment laws was rushed through the European Parliament, the Greens want to force a vote of their own on the bloc’s 2040 climate target.

Why the urgency? EU states have until the United Nations General Assembly in New York on September 22 to produce an emission reductions target for 2035 as part of global climate talks. And MEPs have no real say without a Parliament-wide agreement.

To get there, the Greens argue a fast-track procedure for the climate target is needed. Their plan: agree a position in the environment committee as soon as possible by cutting down on deadline extensions.

The Left and S&D support the motion. However, the vote’s prospects look glum because the centre-right EPP is unlikely to back it. Even liberal Renew will not lend its support, one source told us yesterday afternoon, preferring to leave the door open to switch camps last minute.

Coordinators, who negotiate for their groups in the environment committee, meet this morning for a last sit-down – with a back-up meeting planned for the afternoon.

Ireland’s Paschal Donohoe was re-elected as president of the Eurogroup after Spain’s Carlos Cuerpo and Lithuania’s Rimantas Šadžius failed to garner enough support and dropped out.

FRANCE
A minute’s silence was observed yesterday in the National Assembly following the announcement of the sudden death of Les Républicains MP Olivier Marleix. Aged 54, he had served as an adviser to President Nicolas Sarkozy before being elected in 2012 to represent the 2nd constituency of Eure-et-Loir.

ITALY
According to Italian media reports, the defence ministry is set to fast-track military procurement, allowing urgent purchases of weapons, ammunition and equipment while bypassing the Court of Auditors’ standard oversight. Instead, a special commission with representatives from the armed forces and state legal bodies would be created. Opposition parties have vowed to block the move.

SPAIN
The Spanish National Court indicted the former president of national railway operator ADIF, Isabel Pardo de Vera, and former director for State Highways, Javier Herrero, for allegedly rigging public works. The corruption probe is investigating a multi-million corruption scheme linking PM Pedro Sánchez’s inner circle, former cabinet members, and high-ranking officials with unlawfully granting public awards to private companies in exchange for kickbacks.

POLAND
Polish farmers are suspending their protests against EU agriculture policy to support 'citizen' patrols organised by far-right activists on the border, targeting alleged smuggling of illegal migrants from Germany into Poland. Read more.

SLOVAKIA
Juraj Cintula, a 72-year-old man accused of shooting Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico last year, will stand trial today. Read more.

LITHUANIA
Pressure is mounting on Lithuanian Prime Minister Gintautas Paluckas, with a protest expected today outside the country’s parliament, demanding his resignation over recent scandals and the participation of the far right in his coalition. Read more.

Despite Spain’s public commitment to cut arms ties with Israel, sources within the defence ministry admit a full break would be “highly difficult”, as key parts of the country's military infrastructure still rely on Israeli systems.

The Commission is seeking close cooperation with EU defence ministers as part of a new medical countermeasures plan to address future health crises, according to a document seen by Euractiv.

Despite leaks of European citizens' data to Chinese authorities and the looming deadline in the US to either sell or ban the app, the EU is not pushing ByteDance-owned app TikTok to be banned or sold off in Europe. Why?

BOOM: A car in an electric station near Brussels’ Schuman square burst into flames Monday afternoon, startling diners at To Meli. Firefighters rushed in, dousing even the nearby DG CLIMA building to keep things under control.

Arrivederci: Elisabetta Belloni, von der Leyen’s top diplomatic advisor, is leaving the Commission president’s cabinet after just six months, an EU spokesperson confirmed to Euractiv. But she’ll stay on to steer two key EU summits in China and Japan before her exit, per Italian newspaper La Repubblica.

French President Emmanuel Macron travels to the UK for a state visit from 8–10 July. He will join UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer for the 37th Franco-British Summit, with defence ties high on the agenda

Danish PM Mette Frederiksen outlines Denmark’s EU presidency priorities in Strasbourg. She meets Roberta Metsola, followed by a joint press conference at 12:15

Economic and Financial Affairs Council meets in Brussels. Informal meeting of Employment Ministers takes place in Aalborg, Denmark

College of Commissioners convenes in Strasbourg

Commission President Ursula von der Leyen meets top MEPs at 16:00 for a Conference of Presidents discussion on the upcoming EU budget proposal; later, von der Leyen sits down with Greens co-leaders Terry Reintke and Bas Eickhout

Von der Leyen also has dinner with Roberta Metsola, António Costa, Manfred Weber, Iratxe García and Valérie Hayer in Strasbourg

Contributors: Inés Fernández-Pontes, Elisa Braun, Owen Morgan, Laurent Geslin, Alex Brzozowski, Thomas Møller-Nielsen, Magnus Lund Nielsen, Niko J. Kurmayer, Alessia Peretti, Ivone Gravato, Aleksandra Krzysztoszek, Barbara Zmušková.

Editors: Vince Chadwick and Sofia Mandilara.