| | Thursday, October 7, 2021 | Injuries are, obviously, always a factor in Fantasy Football, but the past few weeks have been especially brutal. Huge names like Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, A.J. Brown, Julio Jones and many more have missed time recently, and each of those players still has questions attached to him for Week 5. In today's roundup of the injury news from Wednesday's first practices of the week, I've got write-ups on 29 players with injury concerns this week -- and that isn't even counting Chris Carson, who looks very much at risk of missing tonight's game against the Rams. | You aren't going to be able to just lock in your lineup today and stop thinking about it, in all likelihood, in other words. However, we still need to make sure you're ready for the first lineup lock of the week, especially with star-studded teams like the Rams and Seahawks facing off. At this point in the season, injuries might already be impacting just about every Fantasy lineup, which means you might need some help making the right calls. | And that's the point of this newsletter, of course! Dave Richard took the to task in his Starts and Sits, Sleepers and Busts column, as he goes through every game on the schedule trying to help you figure out who should be in your lineup. We'll take a look at some of his calls in today's newsletter before getting to all of the injury news you need to know about and a preview of tonight's big game. | | | Get ready for Week 5 with our other preview content here: | | Keep an eye out for tomorrow's newsletter, where I'll preview every game this week, including full injury report updates from around the league. Here's what else today's newsletter will cover: | | | | | There are the obvious calls, and then there are the ones you need help with. Dave Richard goes through each game to identify the most interesting matchups and biggest lineup dilemmas for Week 5. Here are some of his top picks for this week. You can find the rest of his advice for Week 5 here: | Starts | - Damien Williams -- "Williams is effectively a test case for the old Fantasy Football adage of "It's all about the matchup." As a player, Williams has shown positives since breaking out in 2018, averaging 4.7 yards per run and catching 61 passes in 31 games. He looked really good last week in place of David Montgomery , impressively bursting and then fighting for a short-yardage score and then juking his way through the Lions defense on multiple plays. And no doubt, he's about to face a Raiders run defense that's ceded 4.6 yards per carry at least one touchdown to an opposing back in every game this year. It does feel a little scary to trust Williams, and this Bears offense and coaching staff in general. We just can't say with certainty that Williams will get a lot of touches. But there is potential for it, and with so many running backs hurt, that along with the favorable matchup is enough to start Williams as a No. 2 option."
- Laviska Shenault -- "D.J. Chark's injury might mean more deep targets for Shenault, but it definitely will mean more targets overall. To wit: He had a 29% target share last week, his highest on the season by eight points. He also ran 11-plus yards on 6 of 22 routes (27%) against the Bengals; prior to the game he had done that on 16 of 102 (16%) routes. With Trevor Lawrence looking better and the Titans pass defense allowing the most Fantasy points to receivers through four games, Shenault is a no-brainer in PPR and a flex consideration in non-PPR."
| Sits | - Melvin Gordon/Javonte Williams -- "Through four games, Gordon has played just two more red-zone snaps and 24 more snaps overall than Williams with a dead-even split on goal-to-go snaps (eight each). Only on third downs does Gordon have an edge on Williams, but even so, both have eight catches this season. Gordon's been a little more efficient, has more rushing touchdowns and has yet to fumble, so he's slightly more appealing. Pittsburgh is one of two defenses (Dallas) to not allow a touchdown to a running back this year, but the squad let up 129 rush yards and 67 receiving yards to the Packers duo last week. I'd expect the Steelers to bounce back in that regard and hold Gordon and Williams to modest totals."
- Miles Sanders -- "Sanders continues to lead the Eagles backfield (64% of the snaps last week), but with 15 touches in the past two games, he's obviously not touching the ball enough. The Eagles are evolving into a pass-heavy offense, partially because they keep falling behind as their defense struggles. When that happens, Sanders comes off the field and rookie Kenny Gainwell comes on. Gainwell's run a pass route on 72% of his snaps each of the past two weeks, more than Sanders has. Gainwell also has either as many or one fewer touch than Sanders over the past two weeks. The crusher for Sanders? On the season he has two touches inside the 10-yard line, both for negative yardage. Gainwell also has had two touches inside the 10 and scored on both. I fear that Sanders could get phased out of the offense. He's very difficult to trust even going into a suspect matchup against the Panthers."
| Sleepers | - J.D. McKissic -- "McKissic has resumed his role as the Football Team's third-down back, playing 32 of 39 snaps on third and fourth downs over the past three weeks. In two close wins, McKissic not only scored but had five receptions; in a blowout loss to the Bills he saw five touches, probably because Taylor Heinicke was more focused on throwing downfield and not short and sideways. No one should expect McKissic to find the end zone, but New Orleans' run defense has typically been tough. It could behoove Washington to throw to its running backs a little more than usual. That would fit McKissic and make him worth some consideration in full PPR leagues."
- Trey Lance -- "You may have already heard that Lance accumulated 20 Fantasy points in one half of football in relief of Jimmy Garoppolo last week. Despite a number of off-target throws, he really didn't leave many stats on the field. The matchup at Arizona isn't exactly a cake walk -- Ryan Tannehill and Trevor Lawrence totaled seven turnovers against them. If Lance can hang on to the football, he'll have a shot at some pretty serious stats. Remember, Lance was known just as much for his galloping rushing prowess as he was for his big arm in college, and we've seen plenty of both since August."
| Bust Candidate | - Damien Harris -- "This one depends on the status of Harris' offensive line -- if four-fifths of the group are unavailable to play, then Harris carries too much caution. If most or all of them are back, I'm good with Harris as a low-end starter in non-PPR and maybe even in PPR as well. We've seen the Patriots give him a nice amount of work in favorable matchups (Weeks 1 and 2), and totally get away from him in unfavorable ones (Weeks 3 and 4). The Texans have allowed the eighth-most Fantasy points to running backs this year but should be worse considering the Jaguars barely ran it on them in Week 1 and the Panthers lost Christian McCaffrey to an injury in Week 3. If you start him, you're hoping for Harris to pull into the end zone at least once with more than 15 carries. That will be easier to accomplish behind a healthy offensive line."
| | 🚑Week 5 Injury Watch | | I'll have a full breakdown of the injury report in Friday's newsletter along with my preview of each game, but here's a look at some notables from the first practice participation reports of the week. | Injuries to watch for Week 5 | It's not clear what these injuries mean quite yet. | - Dalvin Cook (ankle) -- Did not practice Wednesday. But Cook told reporters Wednesday he plans to play in Sunday's game against the Lions. He suffered the injury initially back in Week 2 and missed Week 3 as a result, and then suffered an aggravation of the injury last week that forced him out for a bit. Cook is one of those guys who is always going to push to play, and if he says he's going to play, I'll believe him for now. We'll see how the rest of the week in practice goes, but have an alternate plan just in case. Alexander Mattison would be a very nice alternate plan.
- Ezekiel Elliott (knee) -- Did not practice. Elliott sat out Sunday with knee discomfort, but told reporters, "I feel three times better than I did Monday." So, I guess he's trending up. I'm expecting him to play Sunday against the Giants, but if he doesn't, Tony Pollard becomes a must-start option.
- Austin Ekeler (ankle) -- Limited practice. I haven't seen any reason to think this injury is going to keep Ekeler out, but it's a new one, so we'll note it here and hope it isn't serious. We'll know more in the coming days.
- Antonio Gibson (shin) -- Did not practice. Gibson missed practice last week with this injury and still played, so I'm assuming the same for now.
- George Kittle (calf) -- Did not practice. This is the same issue that kept Kittle out of practice last week, but he was still able to play more or less his usual role in Week 4.
- Amari Cooper (hamstring) -- Did not practice. Cooper was forced out of Sunday's game during the first quarter with this injury but ultimately played through it without much issue. They'll probably play it safe with him during the week, but I'm expecting him to play. However, he is a bit riskier than usual right now, both because of the injury and the Cowboys unusually run-heavy game plan of late.
- Ben Roethlisberger (hip) -- Did not practice. Roethlisberger has been limited by a pectoral injury in recent weeks and has played through it, and I'm expecting the same for this issue. Unfortunately, I also expect him to play much the way he has of late -- poorly.
- Teddy Bridgewater (concussion) -- Did not practice. Bridgewater is actually progressing well from the concussion, per reports, but he'll need to be cleared through the league's concussion protocol before he can play. I'm assuming he won't play for now, which makes the Broncos passing game weapons harder to trust if Drew Lock has to face the Steelers defense.
- Chase Edmonds (shoulder) -- Did not practice. I haven't seen much to suggest this is a serious issue, but it is a new injury that forced Edmonds out of practice, so it certainly bears watching. The Cardinals are usually pretty willing to give guys time off during practice if they are dinged up but not seriously injured, but Thursday's practice will tell us more.
- Kenny Golladay (groin) -- Limited practice. Golladay has been limited at times going back to the preseason with hamstring and hip injuries, but this is the first time we've seen a groin injury, I believe. At this point, I'm expecting him to play and remain the team's top target coming off his breakout six-catch, 116-yard performance in Week 4.
- Melvin Gordon (lower leg) -- Did not practice. This seems like the same issue he played through last week after missing some of practice, so let's assume the same for Week 5, shall we?
- Jamaal Williams (hip) -- Limited practice. This is a new issue for Williams, but hopefully that doesn't mean he suffered it during practice. He's coming off a season-high 14 carries but remains more like a fringe starting option since his passing game role has been limited since Week 1.
- Curtis Samuel (groin) -- Did not practice. Samuel made his season debut in Week 4, and it doesn't seem like he suffered a setback -- at least as far as we know right now. Washington has big plans for him, but he'll need to get back to 100% health and stay there before you can trust him. But he remains worth stashing.
| Trending up for Week 5 | This doesn't mean they will play, but we got good news about them Wednesday. | - Christian McCaffrey (hamstring) -- Limited practice. This is a good sign for McCaffrey, though obviously it doesn't guarantee he'll be back in Week 5. My assumption at this point is Week 6 against the Vikings remains the most sense for his return, but there's at least a chance we'll have the best player in Fantasy back for Sunday's game against the Eagles.
- Tee Higgins (shoulder) -- Limited practice. This is a definite step in the right direction for Higgins, who sat out all of last week with the injury. I'm not ready to pencil him back in my rankings just yet, but his chances of playing look better than they did last week, for sure.
- A.J. Brown (hamstring) -- Limited practice. This is also a step in the right direction for Brown, who didn't practice last week. We'll see if he's able to get up to a full practice sometime this week, and Brown would be a must-start player for Sunday against the Jaguars if he is able to play.
- Elijah Mitchell (shoulder) -- Limited practice. This is a step up for Mitchell, who missed the last two weeks with this injury. The 49ers did release Kerryon Johnson and Chris Thompson from the practice squad earlier this week, which could be a sign that Mitchell seems likely to return. The question then would become whether he is likely to return to the starting lineup ahead of Trey Sermon, which is my expectation whenever he's healthy enough to play.
- Damien Williams (quad) -- Full practice. This is what we wanted to see after Williams was forced out of Sunday's game late. With David Montgomery expected to miss several weeks with a knee injury, Williams should be a top-24 RB for Week 5 against the Raiders and beyond.
- Chase Claypool (hamstring) -- Limited practice. This is a good sign for Claypool, who missed Week 4 with the injury. Hopefully the Steelers top three targets will all be back for Sunday against the Broncos, though I'm not sure you'd want to trust either Claypool or JuJu Smith-Schuster given how this offense looks right now.
- Sterling Shepard (hamstring) -- Limited practice. Shepard was held out last week but looks like he has a chance to play. It'll be interesting to see what happens with his role, because he was the team's top target through the first two games. Can he sustain that with Golladay finally getting his legs under him and Kadarius Toney having a nice little breakout game last week? .
- Elijah Moore (concussion) -- Limited practice. Moore suffered the injury in Week 3 and saw both Jamison Crowder and Keelan Cole play large roles in his absence. Moore still has plenty of sleeper appeal, but he's just a stash option until he actually breaks out.
- Carlos Hyde (shoulder) -- Full practice. Hyde was a surprise last-minute scratch last Thursday, but it looks like he's past the issue. James Robinson is back to being a must-start Fantasy option, and hopefully Hyde doesn't spoil that.
- Giovani Bernard (knee) -- Limited practice. Expectations are very high for Leonard Fournette this week, but Bernard could play the spoiler -- he played 45% of the team's snaps in Week 3 against the Rams before his injury. I'll still start Fournette against the Dolphins if Bernard plays, but I'll certainly feel like it's less of a sure thing.
| Trending down for Week 5 | This doesn't mean they won't play, but they aren't moving in the right direction yet. | - Jimmy Garoppolo (calf) -- Did not practice. The 49ers have not ruled Garoppolo out, but I'm still assuming Trey Lance will be the starter against the Cardinals. However, if Garoppolo is close, they may choose to go with him in an important division game.
- Joe Mixon (ankle) -- Did not practice. Zac Taylor said he thinks Mixon is more day to day than week to week, so he hasn't been ruled out for Sunday against the Packers. However, Taylor was also overly optimistic about Mixon's health last season when he missed multiple months with a foot injury, so I don't know how much you can trust that. Samaje Perine figures to start if Mixon is out and would be in the fringe starting conversation at RB.
- Julio Jones (hamstring) -- Did not practice. Jones seems to be further behind than Brown, and I'm assuming he isn't going to play this week. We'll see what the next few weeks hold.
- Rob Gronkowski (ribs) -- Did not practice. Gronkowski has four cracked ribs, a broken rib and a punctured lung, so I'm not expecting him to play this week. Cameron Brate will see a larger role for the second game in a row, but he's just a streaming option against the Dolphins.
- Peyton Barber (toe) -- Did not practice. Barber suffered the injury early in Monday's game against the Chargers and it looks like he's at risk of missing Week 5. Josh Jacobs would be a more trustworthy option if that were to happen.
| 🆚TNF Preview: Rams at Seahawks | | All lines from Caesars Sportsbook | - Line: Rams -2.5; 54.5 O/U
- Implied totals: Rams 28.5-Seahawks 26
| What to expect: A lot of fireworks if the line is to be believed. The Rams have done an excellent job against Russell Wilson the last few seasons, so this one will likely come down to how much they can keep that going. Ideally, we'll see a ton of passing between these two teams, however one thing to consider is that these have actually been two of the lowest-volume teams in the league to date; the Seahawks are averaging just 52.8 plays per game while the Rams are at 59.3, while the average team is at 63.5. | Key injuries: Chris Carson (neck) -- Carson is dealing with a "long-term" injury that apparently flared up in recent days. It's bad timing with the short week, and it might make sense for the Seahawks to hold him out and aim for Week 6 against the Steelers. If that does happen, Alex Collins figures to see a strong role and would be in the top-20 discussion at running back. | What to watch for: As has been the case every game, I'd like to see the Rams make a point of getting Robert Woods involved -- and Sean McVay said he wants to do the same earlier this week. Whether that will actually happen remains to be seen. And, while I'm assuming Darrell Henderson is going to continue to dominate touches at running back, I'm interested to see how far they push that coming off a game where he played 90% of the snaps just four days ago. On the Seahawks side, I'd like to see Tyler Lockett break out after a couple of quiet games, and I'll also be very interested to see what kind of role Collins has if he starts -- will they involve him in the passing game, or is this going to be more of a committee approach? | Notable player props | - Russell Wilson: OVER 1.5 passing touchdowns -- I know it's a tough matchup, and it's worth noting, Wilson has just three passing touchdowns in his past four games against the Rams, so it's certainly no guarantee. But he has multiple passing scores in 15 of 21 games since the start of last season, and he's the kind of passer who could do this with two big plays early. Speaking of ...
- Russell Wilson: OVER 36.5 yards longest passing completion -- Wilson has five completions of at least 39 yards this season -- at least one in three of four games -- and he had 17 completions of 37 or more yards in 2020 -- one in 11 of 16 games. That includes one in each game against the Rams. Wilson's prowess with the deep ball is arguably his defining trait, and he has two excellent deep ball receivers to work with. It's surprising when he doesn't hit on a long ball.
- Darrell Henderson: OVER 64.5 rushing yards -- I thought the Rams might try to limit Henderson's reps coming off his rib injury in Week 4, but he played 90% of the snaps and had 19 touches in the loss to the Cardinals. When he's been healthy enough to play, Henderson has been fed a ton of snaps and touches, with his season low of 16 coming when he exited Week 2 early with the injury. I feel like he gets here on volume alone.
| | | | | | | | | It's an SEC on CBS doubleheader beginning with a top 20 matchup between #2 Georgia and #18 Auburn. Catch all the action Saturday at 3:30 PM ET. Watch Live | | This weekend is a huge test for #1 Alabama, as they head to College Station to take on Texas A&M in primetime. Tune in on Saturday at 8 PM ET. Watch Live |
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