By Michael Shepherd - Oct. 14, 2022
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📷 Maine Senate President Troy Jackson, D-Allagash, pauses at a news conference in Orono on Aug. 7, 2019. (BDN photo by Gabor Degre)

Good morning from Augusta. There are 25 days until Election Day.

What we're watching today

The top lawmaker is the big target on Maine's legislative battleground map. It is almost always overshadowed by statewide and congressional races, but the battle for control of the Maine Legislature may be the state's most interesting event in the Nov. 8 elections. For most of this year, national observers have said Maine's races could be some of the nation's tightest.

That chatter picked up in the spring, when Republicans were riding high in the polls. Democrats have clawed back some momentum since then, but there has been little to change the legislative forecasts. The forecasting site CNalysis rates the Maine House of Representatives as one of only two "toss-up" lower chambers in the country, while tilting the Senate toward Democrats.

But the majority party is far from complacent in their bid to hold that chamber. Groups led by the coordinated Democratic campaign have poured early money into Senate races that got going earlier than in the less-predictable House. They have dominated outside spending to date, putting in nearly $2 million to Republicans' $326,000 as of Friday morning. Follow along with my data.

Their top priority is Senate President Troy Jackson, D-Allagash, who is in a tough race with Rep. Sue Bernard, R-Caribou, in a district trending toward Republicans. Democrats have spent a staggering $340,000 there, which is $79,000 more than they have deployed anywhere else. Bernard's allies have spent another $49,000 there, making the race the top battleground so far.

Senate Democrats are in protection mode. Their second-biggest total to date has been spent on Sen. Craig Hickman, D-Winthrop, who is facing Rep. Jeff Hanley, R-Pittston. The only other race to see more than $275,000 in spending to date is the one between former Sen. Eric Brakey, R-Auburn, and former Rep. Bettyann Sheats, D-Auburn. The seat is being vacated by Sen. Ned Claxton, D-Auburn.

House races are just beginning to take off. Republicans actually got out to an early spending advantage, though Democrats have now spent $422,000 to their $312,000. Only six races in the 151-seat chamber have seen more than $20,000 in spending to date and they run the gamut geographically.

The biggest one has been a tantalizing matchup in the Augusta suburbs between Rep. Tavis Hasenfus, D-Winthrop, and former Rep. Corey Wilson, a Republican who once represented half of Augusta but now lives in Readfield. It has already seen $31,000 in outside spending with more likely to come.

In second place is an open Windham seat where a Republican newcomer defeated a former lawmaker in a primary, something that could increase Democratic chances. Next is the race between Rep. Holly Stover, D-Boothbay, who ousted an incumbent in the 2018 election, and Boothbay Harbor selectman Tricia Warren, the Republican nominee.

As these cases show, there are interesting races up and down the state that are affected by increasing north-south polarization and candidate quality. The gaps between many of these hopefuls and the standard-bearers of their parties in bigger races will be the thing to watch as returns come in. We are just over three weeks away from that, folks.

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News and notes

📷 This screenshot is from a Maine Republican Party ad against Gov. Janet Mills.

⛽ Republicans use false claims to pin high costs on the governor.

◉ Yesterday's Daily Brief outlined Republicans' challenge in sticking high costs to Gov. Janet Mills. Right on cue, it was the subject of a new ad from the Maine Republican Party. Two of three claims against the governor are false.

◉ It says she wants to raise the gas tax, but it only cites a 2021 report saying the state could fund electric vehicle initiatives by doing so. Mills has not supported it, although she and business groups opposed efforts this year from Republicans including former Gov. Paul LePage to cut or suspend the tax.

◉ It says fuel prices are high "thanks to Janet Mills." Prices spiked worldwide this year and went up recently after a production cut by oil exporters led by Saudi Arabia. In Republican-led New Hampshire, average No. 2 oil prices crested above $5 per gallon this week, in line with reported prices here. This is a global problem, but it is always bad to be the governor stuck with it.

😾 A congressional candidate says he should not have spread "furry" rumors.

◉ Republican Ed Thelander, the longshot opponent to Rep. Chellie Pingree, a Democrat from Maine's 1st District, told the Portland Press Herald that it was a mistake to repeat false rumors that schools were putting litter boxes in bathrooms for "furries," or those who dress in animal costumes.

◉ We had to debunk social media posts on the topic in the spring. Thelander told the Press Herald that heard from "many people" about furries but it was a mistake to bring it up in a summer interview with a conservative website.

◉ Thelander, a retired Navy SEAL, also compared lobster rules to rape at a rally this week. He said those remarks went too far at a debate with Pingree.

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What we're reading

🏡 LePage's vague idea to consolidate schools and use leftover buildings for housing "doesn't make a lick of sense," a top developer said.

🏥 The former governor also revived a push for a new psychiatric hospital in Bangor that got stiff local opposition during his administration.

🔋 New electric vehicle charging stations are coming to northern and eastern Maine.

🌱 Fellow farmers are pitching in to pick the crops of a fifth-generation Fort Kent farmer whose arm was crushed in a harvester recently.

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