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Bitcoin Market Journal

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HEALTH, WEALTH, AND HAPPINESS

March 2, 2022

“How many millionaires do you know who have become wealthy by investing in savings accounts? I rest my case.”

Robert G. Allen

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New downloadable scorecard! Bitcoin Cash (BCH) was originally created as a spinoff of bitcoin, with the aim of making it faster and easier to use as a currency.


Our analysts found that five years later, Bitcoin Cash results are decidedly mixed. Click here to get the complete scorecard.


(Not a paid subscriber yet? Click to become a Blockchain Believer.)

Whale Reads



Whale Reads

Worthy news for aspiring whales


The Changing World Order (Ray Dalio): Here's a hot take on the possibility of hot war with Russia, from one of the best economic thinkers of our time. (The whole thing is worth a read, but skip to "When Hot Wars Begin" if you're pressed for time.)


Investor takeaway: Dalio's take on making sure your money is safe and making sure your portfolio is well-diversified are two major themes. In the possibility of real war, he points out, many people will flee to the safety of gold. (Today, that may well be crypto.)

Your Money is Growing



Your Money is Growing

Truth, in numbers


Dalio shows how countries responded during World War 2: freezing money movement, shutting down stock markets, and sending investors to gold.

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Courtesy The Changing World Order. Also see Dalio's A Deeper Look at Capital Wars for more good research on this topic.


Today, investors are going to crypto: as we showed you yesterday, investors in Russia and Ukraine are already moving out of national currencies and into U.S.-denominated stablecoins.


Investor takeaway: If you're not in Russia or Ukraine, it's probably too early to make any big money movements. But watch closely to see how things develop -- and stay subscribed to this newsletter!

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Blockchain Investing Ideas

with Alexandre Lores


Hi Everyone,


Last night, President Joe Biden delivered the annual State of the Union Address, or SOTU.


For those outside of the U.S., this is the annual message the president delivers to Congress near the beginning of each year, and it regards the current condition of the nation. 


This is Biden's second year as president, but this is considered his first SOTU address


This speech could turn out to be a crucial moment for Biden, who faces crises at home and abroad.


According to CNN, his approval rating comes in at roughly 41%, the second lowest for a president before his first address - only former President Donald Trump had a lower approval rating in 2018. 


In his address, Biden covered the war in Ukraine, highlighting the bravery of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian people. He also stressed the support the U.S is giving Ukraine, namely in terms of the brutal financial sanctions imposed on Russia. 


And he discussed the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the economy and his plan for addressing inflation.

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What about money printer go brrrrrr?


Inflation seems like a very appropriate subject for the sitting U.S. president to discuss during this address, since the nation's consumer price index rose at an annualized rate of 7.5% in January, the highest since February 1982.


Here are some quotes from Biden's speech that involve inflation: 


"I think I have a better idea to fight inflation: Lower your costs, not your wages," he stated. 


"That means make more cars and semiconductors in America, more infrastructure and innovation in America, more goods moving faster and cheaper in America, more jobs where you can earn a good living in America," Biden added. 


"Instead of relying on foreign supply chains, let’s make it in America." 


He went on to detail highlights of a plan that involved cutting prescription costs and lowering energy bills, while also pushing for a $15 minimum wage. 


While reducing costs and increasing wages sounds great, my biggest takeaway is how in the world is the president or anyone else going to do that? He didn't mention anything about the money printer being turned off.


While the president does not run the Federal Reserve, it seems out of touch to avoid bringing up the subject when one is talking about inflation.


This also doesn't consider energy inflation. With the recent Russian invasion of Ukraine, in tandem with crippling economic sanctions levied against Russia, I can't envision a scenario where prices go down.


Both of these nations affect commodity prices, for example gas (petrol), in a massive way. The European Union gets close to 40% of its natural gas from Russia. 


If Biden can successfully deliver on all the objectives outlined in his recent SOTU, I will be shocked. The concept of lowering prices seems to be in another universe.


While reducing inflation seems like a more realistic goal, I am skeptical that the president or anyone else can make that happen in the near future. 

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So what about stonks?


As an avid student of markets, I was curious to see what happened to the stock market the day after the SOTU. 


Thanks to some good work in a piece that MarketWatch Washington bureau chief Robert Schroeder wrote in 2020, I didn't need to Google 60 different years of index prices on random dates. He laid out the value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average the day after each SOTU in the above mentioned article. 


It's been a mixed bag, being up about the same amount of times as being down. Some notable ups and downs included the day following President Bill Clinton's final SOTU in 2000, shortly after he was impeached.


It was the longest in terms of time, lasting close to 89 minutes. It also coincided with the Dow dropping 2.62% the next day, the largest decline (for the day following the SOTU) since at least 1961.


Like Clinton, Trump also delivered an address after being impeached. He gave this address in 2020, however the market responded favorably. The Dow gained 1.68% the day after. 


That particular gain didn't set a record, however. In fact, the largest one-day increase taking place after an SOTU followed George H. W. Bush's address in 1991. Following this speech, the Dow gained 1.90%. 


At the time of this writing, the markets are generally trending higher. I will be watching to see where the day ends.

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Sending all of you and the world my deepest hope for peace and safety.


Sincerely,

Alexandre Lores

Opportunity Analyst

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Bitcoin Market Journal is a daily newsletter that makes you a better crypto investor. It is created by Evamarie Augustine, Charles Bovaird, Mati Greenspan, John Hargrave, and Alexandre Lores.


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