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🔔 The Opening Bell |
Good morning. Welcome to a new month and the start of the second half of the year. Did you know that the S&P 500 $SPX ( ▲ 0.52% ) hasn’t had a red July in the past 10 years? Interesting. |
Speaking of, the S&P 500 closed above 6200 for the first time in history yesterday. However, the dollar has gotten very weak this year (down 10% YTD). What does the dynamic between surging stocks and a sinking dollar mean, and what could we expect moving forward? We take a look in a deep dive today below the market headlines. |
It’s important to stay up to date on daily signals and news stories if you’re an active trader—but it’s also important to laugh. Today’s partner Finance Wrapped helps you do both, bringing you the top stories in finance, tech, and policy 3x a week (memes included). |
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😃 Finance news that fits your life |
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Most people think you either have to obsess over the markets or ignore them completely. |
There’s a better way. |
Finance Wrapped is a 3x-weekly newsletter that covers the most important stories in markets, tech, and policy—in just 5 minutes. |
It’s smart, useful, and actually fun to read. |
(No PhD or Bloomberg terminal required.) |
If you’re ready to add a chill finance newsletter that doesn’t feel like homework to your inbox, this is for you. |
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📰 Market Headlines |
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S&P 500 and Nasdaq $NASDAQ ( 0.0% ) jumped to fresh records on Monday, capping one of the most volatile first halves of a year in recent memory. |
The Dow rose over 0.6%, Nasdaq and the S&P 500 climbed about 0.5% and both notched record highs as the benchmark closed above 6,200 for the first time. |
President Trump announced a buyer had been found for TikTok's US operations but said the deal needed Chinese approval. The buyer was reportedly the same investor consortium including Oracle, Blackstone, and Andreessen Horowitz whose previous bid stalled amid US-China trade tensions in April. |
A US judge ordered Argentina to give up its 51% stake in oil company YPF to partially satisfy a $16.1 billion court judgment. The shares needed to be transferred within 14 days to BNY Mellon and then to the plaintiffs. Argentine President Javier Milei vowed to appeal the decision. |
A White House probe found that Harvard violated Jewish students’ civil rights. The accusation is that Harvard practiced indifference when Jewish Students faced “severe, pervasive and objectively offensive harassment” after Hamas attacked Israel in October of 2023; Harvard disagrees with the findings. |
😱 Fear and Greed Index |
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💵 Demoralized Dollar, Soaring Stock Market |
If we were to define the way this year has gone so far, the term “roller coaster” would at least begin to define how it’s felt. From the depths of despair in the worst of tariff negotiations to the series of stock market records we’ve experienced in the past week alone, it’s been a wild ride of ups and downs (and ups). |
But in the background, the US dollar has decidedly dropped in value again and again, losing 10% so far in 2025 even as markets have made a comeback. It’s the worst start to the year the dollar has had since 1973. |
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And these two phenomena (stocks up, dollar down) are inextricably linked, and lead to a worrisome outcome where stocks will grow not because of a strong economy, but because of a weak dollar. Here’s how: |
Inflated earnings: A weaker dollar boosts the overseas profits of big US-based multinationals, making their earnings (in USD) look stronger than they really are.
Value defense: Retail investors are likely treating stocks as a hedge against currency erosion. If your dollar is losing buying power, equities start to look like a safer bet than cash.
Debt concerns: The U.S. debt burden is ballooning—and Trump’s proposed “Big, Beautiful Bill” could send it even higher, pressuring the dollar further.
Tariff risks: Trade wars tend to sap currency strength, and new tariffs only add more weight.
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What it means: this is the kind of environment that can feel good on paper (stock charts up) while quietly eroding real wealth for anyone sitting in cash (which is always happening over time, but this is faster than normal). People start to make decisions based on perceived company growth metrics, when really what they’re looking at is monopoly money increases in profit based on simple currency math. Lower dollar value also decreases purchasing power. |
Here’s the concept summed up: Think your portfolio is up 8%? Great—until you realize your dollar lost 10% in buying power. |
What should you do? Keep an eye on gold, commodities, and the dollar-to-S&P ratio in the coming weeks. The market might be celebrating—but the currency signals aren’t cheering with it. |
A deeper dive: if you want to understand more of why the dollar is dropping and how we got here—looking at things like tariffs, Moody’s US credit downgrade, foreign trade, and more—check out this analysis from Econofact: |
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🧠 Make yourself heard |
What’s your take on the soaring stock market and slumping dollar? |
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🤖 AI/Future/Tech News |
The DOJ dismantled a major North Korean scheme that embedded undercover IT workers in US tech firms, arrested one American, and indicted thirteen others for raising over $5 million for North Korea’s weapons program. A federal judge rejected Apple’s bid to dismiss the DOJ’s antitrust suit and ruled that the government proved that Apple did have monopoly intentions. The Senate cut a proposed ten-year state ban on AI regulation to five years after 17 Republican governors opposed it and added exceptions for child safety and artist protections. |
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We’ve gone through and picked out some Twitter posts we think you’ll get value from. |
But first, a classic. With all the Meta vs. OpenAI employee poaching news, this email from Steve Jobs to Adobe has resurfaced: |
| Boring_Business @BoringBiz_ | |
| This was Steve Jobs’ response when Adobe tried to poach Apple employees | |
| | | 12:22 AM • Jul 1, 2025 | | | |
| | 259 Likes 10 Retweets | | 17 Replies |
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Some more posts: |
A massive table of falling house prices across the US (see, we knew 100% gains on house investments over just 4 years wasn’t normal…) A short report on bullish sentiment through the lenses of greed and volatility First, a chart of deficit and surplus in the US, and then a chart of debt over time |
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🪙 Crypto | Kazakhstan’s central bank announced plans for a state-managed cryptocurrency reserve funded by seized digital assets and government-run mining operations. SOL prices jumped 5% after Rex Shares and Osprey Funds confirmed the first Solana ETF would launch Wednesday, and the token later settled at $157 with a 2.3% daily gain. Sparkassen reversed its anti-crypto stance and revealed plans to offer bitcoin and ETH trading to retail clients by summer 2026, three years after dismissing cryptocurrencies as highly speculative. |
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💡 Ideas, trends, and analysis |
Prices for China-made goods on Amazon spiked 2.6% between January and mid-June, outpacing overall inflation. Millions of US K-12 students attend schools located in extreme urban heat islands that run up to twenty degrees Fahrenheit hotter than surrounding areas. |
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⚔️ Trade wars |
EU imposed a universal 10 % tariff on many US-bound exports while exempting pharmaceuticals, alcohol, semiconductors, and aircraft and pressing for quotas to soften Washington’s 25 % auto and 50 % steel levies. South Korea requested to extend its 90-day US tariff pause past July 9 as officials continued negotiations. Latin American markets approached a pivotal point before July 9, with Mexico shielded by USMCA relief and Chile’s copper exports squeezed by US steel duties. |
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🌍 International Markets | | 🇩🇪 German inflation eased to 2.0% in June, defied forecasts and hit the ECB’s two percent target, core inflation fell to 2.7%, and energy prices dropped 3.5 percent year on year. 🇪🇸 Spain’s CPI rose to 2.2% year on year in June as fuel and food costs climbed, posted a 0.6% monthly gain, and marked nine consecutive months of price growth. 🇮🇳 India’s fiscal deficit shrank to 0.8% of annual estimates for April-May, down from 3.1% last year, and the government set a target to cut the gap to 4.4% of GDP this year. |
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🎤 What you said last time |
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“Cuff him, if that was a normal US citizen, they would be in cuffs.” |
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🚚 Market movers |
Home Depot acquired GMS for $4.3 billion through its SRS Distribution arm to boost contractor sales and drove GMS shares up 11 percent. Boeing appointed Jesus ‘Jay’ Malave as CFO effective August 15, retained Brian West as advisor, and drew on Malave’s Lockheed Martin CFO experience. Oregon Department of Transportation issued layoff notices to up to 700 employees after the legislature blocked gas tax and vehicle fee increases. Wells Fargo cut 194 jobs in Winston-Salem, North Carolina effective August 23 across consumer lending, corporate risk, and technology units. |
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📢 We want to hear from you |
We love hearing from you, and we deeply appreciate your feedback. |
⭐️ What did you think of today's edition? |
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📺 What to watch today |
| ‘Space junk’ from fiery meteor that ripped through Southeast US may have crashed into a home |
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That’s all for today. Did I miss anything? Smash the reply button to let me know. | Cheers,
Brandon with Stefan & Wyatt |
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