US stocks could be due to dip | Renters turned their backs on London |

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Today's big stories

  1. US stocks could be set to stumble
  2. This lesser-known crypto could break into the market’s big five – Read Now
  3. London’s hard-pressed renters fled the capital last year

Laughing Stock

Laughing Stock

What’s Going On Here?

Analysts made a bold prediction this week, warning that the US stock market could be in for a tumble.

What Does This Mean?

US stocks have begun 2023 in style, cruising along in the green and clocking up one of the best starts on record – a welcome turnaround after they had their weakest performance since 2008 last year. But strategists at Morgan Stanley (MS) think investors are living in la-la land: the firm’s number-crunchers – who nailed last year’s predictions – are now betting that this sunny spell is about to get very stormy indeed. And they could be right: see, while markets are banking on the Federal Reserve taking it easy on interest rate hikes, MS sees things playing out differently – especially if inflation data comes in hot and heavy this week. Factor in the anemic economy and the fact that earnings estimates could keep tumbling, and MS is betting that US stocks will dive to a low this spring.

Why Should I Care?

For markets: Fear factor.
Sure, this is just one take, but there are already signs the tide is starting to turn. For one, US stocks had their toughest period of the year last week. And for another, the “put-to-call skew” – an indicator of whether investors are guarding against a drop or aiming to make money from a jump – is at its highest since August, when a two-month rally sharply reversed. That suggests folk are getting antsy, so if these signposts are anything to go by, consider going easy on risky bets for now…

Zooming out: O Canada!
You might want to consider taking your money north of the border for a while. The price-to-earnings ratio – a key valuation metric – of Canada’s S&P/TSX Composite Index is much lower than the S&P 500’s. Plus, the market’s full of commodity stocks ready to take off with China's reawakening, from oil and gas to farm supplies and fertilizer.

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Analyst Take

Polygon Could Soon Pull Ahead In The Crypto Ranks. Here’s Why

Polygon Could Soon Pull Ahead In The Crypto Ranks. Here’s Why

By Jonathan Hobbs, Analyst

Polygon has been a crypto project to watch these past months: its MATIC token is up about 60% this year, and about 250% from its low in June. 

And unlike a lot of other projects, there actually seem to be strong fundamentals backing the move. 

So that’s today’s Insight: three reasons why you might want to consider Polygon for your crypto portfolio. 

Read or listen to the Insight here

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Cheerio, London

Cheerio, London

What’s Going On Here?

The streets of London have got emptier, with renters fleeing the uber-expensive city at a record pace.

What Does This Mean?

You know something’s wrong with the rental market when people start making houses out of dumpsters – but with the average London renter paying 9.1% more last month than in January 2022, that move almost seems sensible. That said, a more practical and popular option is simply upping sticks, with over 90,000 rental households leaving the city last year – the biggest exodus in over ten years. And it seems those ex-Londoners made the right call, with the average rent in the capital now at a wallet-thinning £2,141 ($2,588) a month – more than double the national average. That’s a steep asking price, especially when nearly 10% of private tenants are already falling behind on housing costs across the wider country.

Why Should I Care?

Zooming in: Ghost town.
More than three quarters of the tenants who fled the capital kept their jobs, which means that it's a tale of two cities these days: you’ve got the real Londoners who still live in the city, plus the pseudo-urbanites who work London-based jobs from laptops further afield. Thing is, you can’t eat and drink over Google Meets – so with fewer people swilling and snacking after the office, the city’s economy is poised to take a hit. It's a similar story across the pond: it’s estimated Manhattan workers alone are spending $12.4 billion less each year now that they’re in the office less.

The bigger picture: Dominoes.
This trend isn’t about to fix itself. After all, when white-collar workers cut back on spending, it doesn't just mean there's less need for employees to offer them products and services: it also means that local tax revenues take a hit. And when that happens, there's less money to fund public services like sanitation and education – which could make the situation snowball.

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🌍 Finimize Live

🥳 Coming Up This Week…

All events in UK time.

💰 How To Build A Smart Portfolio: 1pm, February 14th
💸 Healthy Investing Habits For Uncertain Times: 6pm, February 14th
👩‍💻 Opportunities For Women In Blockchain 2023: 12.30pm, February 16th

👀 And After That…

🏠 How To Start Investing In UK Real Estate: 6pm, February 20th
🗞 The Relationship Between News And The Markets: 5pm, February 21st
✍️ What Are Investment DAOs And How Do They Work?: 6pm, February 22nd
🌥 Do Recessions Have A Silver Lining?: 5pm, March 8th

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