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| HEALTH, WEALTH, AND HAPPINESS |
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| Welcome, bitcoin brainiacs! Here's what's new. |
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If you missed our Members-Only Workshop on DAO Investing (with some brilliant investor Q&A), or our new Crypto Investment Calculator (with some brilliant potential returns), you can now find them on our Premium Content page.
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(In the slightly more funny category, this was a plotline in the HBO sitcom Silicon Valley.) (Warning: language.)
Investor takeaway: End of year is a great time to be sure you're not storing all your crypto private keys on one hard drive that could get thrown out. Write down your keys on paper, and store them safely. |
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| Here's a look at the top blockchain projects by total revenue in the past 30 days (courtesy Token Terminal): |
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| Note the top three tokens (ETH, BNB, and UNI) are our top three picks for our Future Winners Portfolio. Maybe we rename it to "Current Winners"? |
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Hi Everyone,
To those of us paying attention, Friday's inflation figures were not at all a shock. However, that doesn't make them any less shocking.
Over the last year, the value of your money in the bank, your paycheck, and all U.S. dollars in circulation have lost nearly 7% of their value. |
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If bitcoin is a hedge against inflation, as many seem to think, then it's not doing a very good job of reacting to the data.
As I write, the price has now fallen below it's 200-day average of $46,784 (graph below). Those of you who've been reading these updates diligently understand exactly why this is happening.
In our BMJ Newsletter from Dec. 1, titled "Is the party over?," we discussed how Federal Reserve policy makers have taken a sharp turn from providing the markets with abundant liquidity to pulling back that liquidity at a very fast pace, much faster than most of us expected, in order to get a handle on inflation.
Therefore, higher inflation figures, even in the face of weak employment data, provide ample motivation for Fed policy makers to tighten the belt even faster. |
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Mid-range
I take no pride or pleasure in saying "I told you so." To be perfectly fair, even though I knew that a wide pullback was likely, I didn't personally take very much evasive action.
The last of my leveraged trades had been liquidated a long time ago. So other than slightly increasing my monthly cash outs for November and December, I left my portfolio largely as is.
The fact is that we've been in a wide trading range for this entire year, with lows around $30,000 and highs above $65,000. The blue line represents bitcoin's 200-day moving average. |
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The hope, of course, is that we will be able to build up support somewhere near the blue line, or even slightly below it.
The hopes many had to see a new all-time high before the end of the year have mostly been dashed, though there still may be a few hopeful analysts. At this point, it seems to me that the possibility for more short-term pain is a bit more prevalent.
Of course, all of the above is just short-term price action. Should the price come down further, I will probably decide to deviate from my debt-paying regimen and instead take on more debt for investment purposes.
I'm not like MicroStrategy chairman & CEO Michael Saylor, who can afford to dollar-cost average with debt while the market is at the top.
Instead, I need to wait for a good deal. |
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Stormy weather
What really gets my goat though is that traditional markets still seem completely unfazed by all the Fed tightening, as the three main U.S. stock indices are eerily close to their all-time highs and West Texas Intermediate crude oil is above $70 per barrel.
Not that many retail investors are focused on it these days.
In this article from Nairametrics, which features the commentary of analyst Olumide Adesina, we can see that most Nigerians would rather see a $100,000 bitcoin price than $100 crude oil, even though the country's entire economy is seemingly based on oil.
Indeed, in many countries, the crypto revolution is already in full swing. As analyst Wonder Godzo pointed out in his latest article, crypto is the perfect storm.
Have a lovely evening. |
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| Mati Greenspan Analysis, Advisory, Money Management |
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| It can't hurt to follow the smart money. |
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| It's hard to argue with the truth. |
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Bitcoin Market Journal is a daily newsletter focusing on blockchain and crypto investments. It is written and edited by Evamarie Augustine, Charles Bovaird, Mati Greenspan, and John Hargrave.
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