Bitcoin has pulled back 6 percent from last week's high of $7,870 and would soon revisit $6,500, according to a latest investor poll by popular trader and analyst Josh Rager.
The poll, seen in the image above, found that 59 percent of voters believe the top cryptocurrency will extend the ongoing pullback to six-month lows near $6,500 reached on Nov. 25.
Meanwhile, the remaining 41 percent see bitcoin rising from the current level of $7,400.
A seasoned trader would argue that investor polls are contrary indicators, especially when the investor sentiment is at a bullish or bearish extreme.
For instance, if the bullish sentiment is at extremes, it means the level of excitement is at historical highs; the last buyers have entered and most of the gains have already been made.
So, with the majority of traders thinking similarly, the demand-supply forces are heavily imbalanced. In such situations, even a slight move to the downside leads to panic response from the bullish crowd, leading to a sharp move in the opposite direction.
Currently, the bullish sentiment is holding well short of extremes.
Note that bitcoin fell from $10,350 to $6,500 in the four weeks to Nov. 25. Such brutal sell-offs usually push investor sentiment to bearish extremes.
As of now, however, the sentiment is somewhat tilted to the bullish side, possibly due to the view put forward by many experts that next year's reward halving should bode well for Bitcoin. |
 
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Bitcoin Prints a Higher Low
BTC: Price: $7,500 | Market cap: $136 million | 24-Hr Volume: $18 million
Trend: Bullish Bitcoin's low-volume pullback from the Nov. 29 high of $7,870 to the low of $7,087 seen earlier today has ended with a strong bullish move, as expected.
The cryptocurrency is currently trading at $7,500, having hit a high near $7,770 soon before press time.
Essentially, bitcoin has established a high low near $7,100 on the daily chart, validating the bullish hammer reversal pattern confirmed on the three-day chart last week.
Put simply, the path of least resistance is to the higher side. A UTC close above $7,870 would invalidate lower highs setup and further strengthen the short-term bullish bias.
The bullish case would be invalidated below $7,087.
Long-term trend: Neutral
Bitcoin has found acceptance below the 50-week MA – a cause of concern for the bulls. Historically, the cryptocurrency has suffered deeper losses after falling below the key average.
Even so, the outlook remains neutral, as the miners’ reward halving, usually a price-bullish event, is due in May 2020.
With BTC looking oversold on the daily chart, a notable recovery ahead of the supply-cutting event can’t be ruled out – more so, as the 50-week MA looks set to cross above the 100-week MA next week. That would be the first bullish crossover in over three years.
Its worth noting that the previous bull cross had marked the start of a long-term bull market. The cryptocurrency picked up a strong bid near $430 following the bull cross confirmation in May 2016 and charted its way a record high of around $20,000 in December 2017.
That said, the outlook as per the weekly chart would turn bullish only if and when prices break higher from the five-month long bearish channel.
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Ravencoin Takes Flight RVN: Price: $0.0264 | MCAP: $132.8 million | 24-Hr Volume: $132.6 million
Short-term trend: Cautiously bullish RVN is up 23 percent over a 24-hour period and is one of the best performing digital assets in the top 100, according to Messari data.
A breakout from the falling wedge pattern at $0.024 can likely be attributed to two fundamental events set for the end of December including a Mainnet upgrade and a bug bounty coming to a close toward the end of the month.
The awesome oscillator (AO) is beginning to show trader momentum is about to flip bullish, provided it can hold current levels without a retrace back below $0.024, which would provide a bullish short-term market structure. Long-term trend: Neutral
RVN experienced its largest injection of daily volume since March 24. That will be difficult to sustain for further moves higher in the long term. However, should the fundamentals align alongside its price action on the charts, a continuation in its price is feasible.
Until then, the outlook in the long-term remains neutral until a firm close above $0.0301 should occur.
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| | | Disclaimer: The information presented in this message is intended as a news item that provides a brief summary of various events and developments that affect, or that might in the future affect, the value of one or more of the cryptocurrencies described above. The information contained in this message, and any information liked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. The information presented herein is accurate only as of its date, and it was not prepared by a research analyst or other investment professional. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency before deciding to purchase or sell any such instruments. |
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