Will rebels torpedo the Rwanda bill – and what does the fight tell us about the Tories?

Good morning. Another miserable week for Rishi Sunak began with his appearance at the Covid inquiry yesterday, where he admitted that he had not discussed his flagship “eat out to help out” scheme in advance with scientific advisers. Today, it gets worse: he is facing a vote on his bill attempting to revive the government’s Rwanda removals policy, in which MPs on both sides of his party have threatened to rebel. He will start the morning with a breakfast meeting to woo rightwing MPs who have made their contempt for the deal clear. And even if he wins, his problems aren’t going away any time soon.

At least Sunak can console himself that it isn’t only his fault. The rebels on either side of him are evidence of the Conservative party’s deep and abiding identity crisis: is it the vessel of the populist hard right that came to the fore after Boris Johnson’s 2019 victory, or can the patrician Tories who once ruled the roost wrest it back towards the centre?

Today’s newsletter, with the Guardian’s political correspondent Kiran Stacey, is about those two irreconcilable tendencies: what they want, how they’ll vote, and why they’re using this battle to prepare for a wider war. Here are this morning’s headlines.

Five big stories

In depth: ‘If he were to lose, his authority would be destroyed’

When the government finally published the Rwanda legislation last week, setting out how it planned to get round the supreme court’s judgment that the existing policy was unlawful, Rishi Sunak gave a press conference in belligerent mood. He said that he could not move an inch further towards the right without blowing up the plan completely. Much of what will happen in the coming days and months will depend on whether he, the rightwing rebels, or the moderate One Nation caucus blink first.

Today, the bill faces its second reading – the first chance for MPs to vote on its main principles. No bill has failed at this stage since 1986. But even if it passes, there will be more opportunities for it to collapse before it becomes law.

Who are the rightwing Tory rebels?

The rebels on the hard right of the Conservative party believe that Sunak’s bill does not go far enough to prevent individual legal challenges to decisions on who will be sent to Rwanda. They are centred around the European Research Group (ERG), the awkward squad forged in the heat of the Brexit wars. “They are very well established and organised,” said Kiran. “The informal whipping system they set up during the Brexit years was almost unprecedented.”

In a rebellion which will only succeed if it is disciplined, that experience is important. On the other hand, Kiran notes, the ERG attempted to organise a rebellion over the Windsor framework plan for post-Brexit Northern Ireland trade, and failed miserably, suggesting that their operation may not be as ruthless or unified as it used to be.

The rightwing rebellion is not solely comprised of the ERG: Ben Quinn has more about the various groups here. They comprise dozens of MPs, and certainly enough to kill the bill, but it’s hard to put an exact number on it, since the ERG doesn’t say how many MPs it counts as members.

“The specific groups don’t matter that much,” Kiran said. “They overlap a lot, and they have all agreed to abide by the same mechanism.” That is the verdict of the so-called “star chamber” of lawyers convened by the ERG and led by hardline Brexiteer Bill Cash – who said yesterday that the bill was “a partial and incomplete solution to the problem of legal challenges”, but stopped short of advising his allies to vote it down today.

What about the One Nation group?

While the more than 100 One Nation Conservatives have only recently emerged as an organised faction, they represent a longstanding Tory tendency: a preference for institutions and the rule of law over populist measures. Damian Green, who chairs the group, set out their concerns in a piece for the Observer: while some of them might find a lot to dislike about the bill, Green wrote that they share the government’s desire to “stop the boats” and are chiefly concerned with whether it stands within the law.

“They tend to be older, more patrician, and more likely to be in the south or have big majorities, which means they don’t have to worry about what their members think as much,” Kiran said. “I would say that they’re not instinctively given to kicking up a stink, but they’re perhaps starting to realise that they need to if they’re not going to be trampled over in every internal debate.”

To that end, they have started to issue press releases, brief journalists, and hold meetings to agree shared lines. Although there are a lot of them, their reluctance to rebel – and the fact that they do not align with the party’s most vociferous members – perhaps makes them a less fearsome opponent for the prime minister.

Will either side rebel today?

Yesterday, the rightwing rebels said that the bill should be pulled, but stopped short of saying they would vote against it at this stage. They will hold a final meeting shortly before the vote today. The One Nation group recommended its members vote for the bill as it stands, but said that it would oppose any future amendments.

That’s relatively good news for Sunak. But he does not have a lot of room for manoeuvre, since Labour and the other opposition parties are expected to vote against the bill. At least some on the right appear to have hardened in their opposition since the weekend, with one saying: “This bill does not work, so I’m not sure why we would back it.”

If 29 Tories vote against, 57 abstain, or some combination of the two erases the government’s majority, it could fall without a unified rebellion on either side. “There is a world where it happens by accident,” Kiran said. “I think that’s pretty unlikely, but you can’t rule it out.”

Is today’s vote the end of the matter?

Absolutely not. One of the reasons that the rightwing rebels may not vote against the bill today “is that they want it to get to the committee stage so that they can start putting forward amendments,” Kiran said. (That’ll come up in the new year.) Most significantly, they want to remove a clause which says that individuals are entitled to bring appeals within the British court system to set out exceptional circumstances that might protect them from removal to Rwanda.

The government says that this would only apply in 0.5% of cases. “But the ERG just don’t trust the courts to judge things objectively,” Kiran said. “They also want some kind of clause that says that the ECHR is fully excluded from ruling on removals.” Since Sunak has said firmly that he has gone as far as he possibly can, the government would appear unlikely to agree to that – unless Sunak concludes that his premiership is under threat. When the bill returns to MPs after the committee stage, they may therefore vote against it even if they don’t today.

The One Nation group, meanwhile, say that they will “stand firm against any attempt to amend the bill”. The conundrum for Sunak, then, is that if he does cave in to the right and whip his MPs to back an amendment, he will face a possible rebellion on his moderate flank. Either way, the bill’s passage is far from assured.

Will Sunak survive?

While the prime minister has insisted that the bill is not a confidence vote – that is, one where defeat could lead to the collapse of his government – “everyone else sees it that way,” Kiran said. “If he were to lose, his authority would be destroyed.” If Downing Street sees a serious risk of that happening, the bill could be pulled altogether.

In the end, that outcome seems possible, but less likely. “There are quite a few on the right who don’t have the stomach for another leadership fight now, and would probably swing behind him in the end.”

That is not to say that they will stop causing the prime minister problems. “Nothing ever pleases them, and they’re looking for a hail mary to get them out of being 20-plus points behind in the polls,” Kiran said. (See, for example, stories at the weekend yet again mooting a return for Boris Johnson.)

But it does suggest that one way to see the Rwanda vote, at least in Westminster, is as a dry run for the battle that will break out within the Conservative party should it lose the election. “There will likely be a one nation candidate and a right wing candidate in a leadership contest,” Kiran said. “So it will be very important which group can organise and advocate on behalf of their choice. There’s going to be a fight for the soul of the party within the next year and a half, and in that sense, this is a testing ground.”

What else we’ve been reading

• If you have wondered how on earth mega-pop stars like Taylor Swift (above)and Beyoncé manage to keep their stamina up during their near three hour performance marathons, Elle Hunt has the answer. Nimo

• An officer posing as a criminal spent hundreds of hours befriending a suspected murderer to discover the truth about Claire Holland’s disappearance in 2012. Steven Morris follows the trial. Clare Longrigg, acting head of newsletters

• Fast fashion companies have come under fire in recent years because of their outsized negative environmental impact and their poor treatment of workers. Many influencers tried to shed their associations with these companies and adopt more sustainable shopping habits, but Sarah Manavis thinks these rebrands are little more than greenwashing. Nimo

• “I’m just so happy being my hero every night. Bono is in me in a way.” We go backstage with the economy version of the stars in this laugh out loud account of the strange lives of tribute bands. Clare

• Miranda Bryant spoke to a Syrian refugee who took a perilous journey through Russia to get to Finland only to find that the border has been closed. Bryant’s dispatch from Rovaniemi reports on how 900 refugees have found themselves in the middle of an intensifying geopolitical drama between the two countries. Nimo

Sport

Cricket | 20-year-old Somerset spinner Shoaib Bashir (above left) has been handed a shock call-up to England’s Test squad for the series against India. Bashir is one of four spinners in the squad, which will be led by Ben Stokes despite his recovery from knee surgery meaning he will not be able to bowl at least at the start of the series.

Football | Manchester United are open to offers for Casemiro, Raphaël Varane, Jadon Sancho, Anthony Martial and Donny van de Beek in January, though Erik ten Hag will not allow any sale if it weakens his squad. The manager does not intend on pushing any player out but financial fair play rules mean there is the need to generate funds, so he and the club’s hierarchy will listen to any prospective bidders.

Gymnastics | An independent complaints commission set up by British Gymnastics to hear abuse cases has been called “not fit for purpose” after it emerged that it had failed to ban a single coach over the past 18 months. The campaign group Gymnasts for Change said there was now a “complete crisis of confidence” in the process, which was set up after a devastating review in June 2022 found evidence of abuse in the training of girls as young as seven.

The front pages

The Guardian leads on the latest from the Cop28 conference with “Climate draft condemned as ‘weak’ and ‘insufficient’”. The Financial Times reports “Oil states face outrage as fossil fuel phaseout dropped from COP draft”.

The i leads with “Tory rebels in standoff with PM on Rwanda law”. The Times says “Right-wing rebellion threatens Rwanda bill”. The Mail claims that the vote could “sink” Sunak’s leadership, under the headline “Down to the wire”. The Telegraph carries comment from the former defence secretary with “Ben Wallace: Do not let Rwanda row bring down government”.

Finally, the Sun has “Fury v Cheshire council”, reporting on the row between the heavyweight boxing champion and Cheshire east council.

Today in Focus

Cartoon of the day | Lou McKeever

The Upside

A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad

For three decades Freddie Johnson taught computing at a college in Edinburgh. He was happy with his job, but when the college started downsizing in 2021, he decided to take redundancy and try doing something new for the first time in a long time. He turned his hobby of driving into the Highlands to show visiting friends the stunning scenery, into a job, applying to become a tour guide for a local company.

Though he had a rocky start to the new vocation, a year and a half later he is thriving with many glowing reviews of his tours. His new job also means that he spends three days a week outside, walking and learning.

“I absolutely love it and because the places we visit are so beautiful, half my job is already done for me,” he says. “Every time I go to Glencoe or Skye, I hear people saying that it’s the most beautiful place in the world and it’s amazing to be able to give them that experience.”

Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday

Bored at work?

And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day – with plenty more on the Guardian’s Puzzles app for iOS and Android. Until tomorrow.

• Quick crossword

• Cryptic crossword

• Wordiply