By Michael Shepherd - Oct. 2, 2023
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Democrats like Maine's congressman could decide the speaker's future. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-California, chose a deal with Democrats over shutting down the federal government this weekend. Hard-line Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Florida, is upset about that deal with Democrats, so he is saying he will file a bid to oust McCarthy from his leadership position this week.

Doing so is going to take help from Democrats. Gaetz's stance may not be internally consistent, but that's politics, baby! NPR has a good breakdown of how the so-called "motion to vacate" works. It would take a simple majority of the House to oust the speaker. Procedural tricks could be employed to delay proceedings, but a vote this week is likely if Gaetz moves it on Monday. 

Ousting McCarthy would create abject chaos due to Republicans' slim majority in the House. He needed 15 rounds of voting to claim the job in January, and he only did so after making a list of concessions to conservatives — including those that make it relatively easy for Gaetz to force a vote on his future.

The weekend deal that funded government for roughly 45 days was sort of predicted by U.S. Rep. Jared Golden, a centrist Democrat from Maine's 2nd District who was in a meeting with McCarthy last week and nudged the chamber toward a deal by sponsoring a bipartisan spending plan.

He and Sen. Susan Collins, the top Republican appropriator in the upper chamber, were the members of the Maine delegation closest to the spending deal action due in part to their centrist orientations. That is the same reason that Golden will be the Maine member to watch on any McCarthy vote.

House Democrats could oust the speaker, but they have made no decision as a bloc on how they will treat this. This weekend, Politico reported that dozens of them may vote "present" as a way of bailing McCarthy out after the bipartisan deal. But progressives are signaling that they will not bail the speaker out. Golden is aligned with the former bloc, but he has not commented on this yet.

If McCarthy loses his position, it would set the House back in dealing with important business from inking a long-term spending plan and their impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden. The political ramifications could also be steep. It could have implications on fundraising for House Republicans' campaign arm, which is working hard to keep the majority.

Golden is on the frontlines of that 2024 fight in a district that twice voted for former President Donald Trump. The House Republican campaign arm is supporting first-term state Rep. Austin Theriault of Fort Kent for Golden's seat, even though fellow freshman Rep. Michael Soboleski of Phillips and former Maine Senate candidate Robert Cross of Dedham are in as well.

It puts Golden and his district in a unique position entering a vote on McCarthy's future. Ousting the speaker would thrust the House into chaos in a way that the Maine congressman is generally averse to. But many Democrats may feel that they don't need to bail the speaker out, especially now that the government is funded. Keep your eyes on these decisions.