The future of Minnesota’s divided state government is on the ballot in November, as all 201 seats in the Legislature are up for grabs.
This year’s election could shift Republican control of the Minnesota Senate, the DFL control of the House, both or neither. Candidates from both parties are making their case during an unusual election season that has been altered by COVID-19, and all sides are keeping a close eye on the metro suburbs.
DFL candidates are spending a lot of time on the telephone this campaign season, said House Speaker Melissa Hortman, DFL-Brooklyn Park. They’ve also been holding socially distanced conversations with voters in local parks, and COVID-19 is a top campaign issue. Traditional door knocking by DFL candidates has gone by the wayside this year, Hortman said.
On the other side of the aisle, Republican House Minority Leader Kurt Daudt is also optimistic about GOP prospects. He said he believes flipping control of the House is within reach. Daudt, R-Zimmerman, said some rural DFL lawmakers are vulnerable, and he likes the chances of former members who are running again this year for suburban seats.
Will the culture war trump the trade war in battle for Iron Range? To win Minnesota Trump needs to boost support along the Iron Range and across rural areas. The jobs argument isn't on Trump's side. NBC reports, "While iron ore exports increased in the first few years of Trump's presidency, the industry slowed when the coronavirus pandemic hit, leading to layoffs and furloughs. Now, fewer mines are open than when Trump first took office."
The Trump campaign is instead focusing on anger on the range and leaning into the urban-rural cultural divide. The population is declining and animosity towards the faster-growing urban parts of the state is palpable.
"The Trump campaign is quick to point out that in 2016 it had virtually no staff on the ground in Minnesota; his support there grew 'organically,' it says. This time around, the campaign has about 80 staffers in Minnesota." ( NBC) Law and order without the racism
Hamline University's David Schultz spoke with Vox about "a version of a law-and-order message that could have worked for Trump, but he believes Trump missed the mark by leaning so hard into the politics of white racial resentment. 'If [Trump] made the same messaging about law and order without the powerful racial overtones that he’s using,' Schultz said, 'he might get to here. He might get some of those suburban voters to listen to him who are very concerned about what happened in Minneapolis and St. Paul.'"
That is a bigger lift for Sen. Tina Smith's opponent Jason Lewis. "If Lewis wants to pull off a win, he’ll likely need to thread the same needle, though his history of racist comments and close ties to Trump could make that difficult. But Schultz isn’t ruling anything out. 'The Senate race is even tighter,' he told Vox over email this month. 'George Floyd and the law-and-order reaction to it are part of the explanation.'"
