By Michael Shepherd - June 1, 2022 Was this newsletter forwarded to you? Sign up.
Good morning from Augusta. There are 13 days until Maine's June 14 primaries. We are collecting your political mailers through November.
What we're watching today
Low turnout is likely for a special election for a Maine Senate seat in which many focal 2022 issues are being tested. The winning party in the June 14 special election race is going to claim lots of momentum going into November. That idea might be wrong as we hurtle toward what looks like will be a low-turnout election, but the race is already proving to be a testing ground for the arguments that Democrats and Republicans will square off on later in 2022.
It is a good matchup between former Sen. Brian Langley, R-Ellsworth, Rep. Nicole Grohoski, D-Ellsworth, and Green candidate Ben Meiklejohn of Seal Harbor. The two major-party candidates are running in the special election to fill the seat vacated by former Sen. Louis Luchini, D-Ellsworth, while also running a primary in a new Senate district ahead of a November general election in which the two will face off again, creating some strange ballot configurations.
The first thing to remember is that the June election is going to look a lot different than the November one. Nearly 1,600 people had requested absentee ballots in the district according to the most recent data, equating to just over 4 percent of voters. Democrats had made nearly three-quarters of those requests and are dominating outside spending so far. That could make a big difference in this kind of election.
What Republicans have in their favor is a candidate who represented the district for eight years and a national wind at their backs with President Joe Biden seeing slumping approval. At a time of rising gas prices, they are hammering Grohoski for co-sponsoring a 2019 carbon tax bill, an attack that Senate Democrats' campaign arm has tried to beat back by noting her vote to kill the measure in committee.
Langley met over the weekend with lobstermen concerned with federal regulations hitting the industry hard and the prospect of offshore wind in the Gulf of Maine, early plans for which led to protests against Gov. Janet Mills last year. National Republicans have highlighted that issue as a major vulnerability for the Democratic governor in her race with former Gov. Paul LePage.
In a defensive posture, Democrats have dusted off an old playbook of tying Langley to the polarizing LePage, calling him a "rubber stamp" for the former governor. LePage has endorsed Langley this time around, but he backed a far-right challenger in a 2020 primary that the former senator won. Langley joined most of his party in opposing Medicaid expansion during his time in office, something Democrats have also highlighted.
A Republican victory in the special election would be impressive given the money and absentee voting deficits they have faced so far, but it cannot be counted out. Democrats could see an easier time in June than in November with the money and manpower to focus on one race. We could be dealing with two very different elections here.
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What we're reading
— Billionaire megadonor George Sorosis spending heavily to oust Cumberland County District Attorney Jonathan Sahrbeck in a June Democratic primary with Kennebec County prosecutor Jackie Sartoris. The outside spending in the race is unprecedented and more is likely coming.
— Four Maine police chiefs said they would not wait to confront a gunman in a school, but their departments differed on how much active-shooter training they have offered to their forces.
— A legal-aid group is arguing across Maine that people who have been living in hotels for months or years should be treated as tenants in eviction proceedings, something that would afford many people more time to find a place to live after the capping of a state rental assistance program.
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News and notes
— Caratunk Selectman Liz Caruso, the underdog Republican opposing former Rep. Bruce Poliquin for the party nomination in the 2nd Congressional District, had a half-hour on Maine Public on Tuesday evening after Poliquin declined a debate. Caruso said she would support federal anti-abortion legislation rather than leaving the issue to states if Roe v. Wade is overturned.
— Former 2nd Congressional District candidate Tiffany Bond has qualified for the November ballot in the district again, the Sun Journal reported. It forces a ranked-choice voting race between Rep. Jared Golden, a Democrat, and the Republican primary winner. Bond, an independent, was one of two also-rans whose small group of voters decided the 2018 race between Golden and Poliquin. She lives in Portland but is building a home in Franklin County.
— Mills will declare June Maine Dairy Month at an 11 a.m. event at the Blaine House alongside industry groups with cheese, yogurt and custard tastings.
Builders work on a four-story, 45-unit condominium building under construction on Tuesday in Portland. (AP photo by Robert F. Bukaty)
đź“·Â Â Lead photo:Â A person carrying groceries turns the corner onto State Street in downtown Ellsworth on March 3, 2021. (BDN photo by Natalie Williams)
