You have to understand the tight end position going into the season -- there's a pretty good chance you're not going to be happy with the production you get from that lineup spot. 

Every year, there are maybe three to five tight ends who actually matter – who are able to consistently put up points week in and week out. Then, there is another handful who hit on the positive side of touchdown regression and have maybe eight good games because they find the end zone. Then there's everyone else – a bunch of guys averaging 30-45 yards per game who you're just hoping will score a touchdown in any given week.

Having one of that handful of actual difference makers is a massive, massive boon to your Fantasy team, but it's also one of the most expensive investments you'll make in your draft. Is it worth it? Is there anyone who can do that for you without breaking the bank? Those are the questions we're looking at as we preview tight end today. 

Before you read on for my TE primer, make sure you check out Heath Cummings' TE Preview – he's got his sleepers, breakouts, and busts for you, along with his tiered rankings, his projections, and some streaming options to consider. It's a great resource to go along with this newsletter – and Heath and I talked about tight ends on Fantasy Football Today in 5 this morning as well. Make sure you're subscribed to FFT in 5 for bite-sized Fantasy content every day from yours truly. If you've got a bit more time, check out the full TE preview episode of FFT here. 

The rest of today's newsletter will get you caught up on tight ends for the 2022 season, as I answer some of the biggest questions and give you my own sleepers, breakouts, and busts along with my updated rankings. We've also got the latest news from around the NFL for you, including the latest on Deshaun Watson's appeal process plus ominous updates on Ken Walker III's injury, Mecole Hardman leaving practice, and Joe Burrow's recovery from appendix surgery. 

Now, here's what you need to know to draft a TE in 2022. 

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Every year when it comes time to preview the tight end position for Fantasy, there's one big question we have to ask: Is this the year tight end is finally good?

It's a big question. The only question that really matters at a position that rarely actually matters for Fantasy outside of a handful of elite options. Of course, to answer that question, there are a few smaller questions we want to answer to guide us to the light. So, let's answer those smaller questions one by one.

Let's define what we mean, first of all. I would define it like this: Were there enough tight ends available last season that every team in a 12-team league had a player they felt pretty good about having in their lineup? And by "felt pretty good about" I mean, would those players have been rostered if they weren't tight ends.

Probably not. I mean, there were 13 tight ends who averaged 10 PPR points per game, which seems like a decent enough number until you realize more than 50 wide receivers hit that mark. T.J. Hockenson, the TE7 last season, was at 11.9 PPR points per game – TE9 was Dallas Goedert at 10.9; Hockenson would have been WR40, while Goedert would have been WR48. 

So … no, tight end was pretty bad last season, as it always is. The TE7 has fallen short of 175 total PPR points in each of the past five seasons -- over the past five seasons, 175 has been good for WR34, WR37, WR35, WR33, and WR28. 

The 2022 NFL Draft saw three tight ends taken inside of the top 100: Trey McBridge at 55 to Arizona, Jelani Woods at 73 to Indianapolis, and Greg Dulcich at 80 to Denver. Over the past decade, there have been 27 tight ends drafted between 55 and 100, and only three have reached even 120 PPR points as a rookie.

History suggests there isn't much to get excited about here, then. 

Obviously, it would be tough to do an exhaustive analysis of every situation, but in short, I think you could make a pretty good case that Kyle Pitts, David Njoku, Austin Hooper, Travis Kelce, Gerald Everett, Dalton Schultz, Cole Kmet, Tyler Higbee, Albert Okwuegbunam, and Zach Ertz all probably have less target competition than they did last season. That's not a short list, exactly, but you also have to account for the fact that Rob Gronkowski retired and Darren Waller, George Kittle, Dawson Knox, Hunter Henry, Mike Gesicki, Pat Freiermuth, Noah Fant, Dallas Goedert, and T.J. Hockenson all arguably have more competition. 

All in all, I think you can say that it probably comes out in the wash, on a position-wide level. I'm not sure there's anyone I really look at and say is in an obviously better position than they were a year ago because of personnel changes -- Okwuegbunam has the best case after the Broncos traded Noah Fant and added Russell Wilson, but he's still likely third in the hierarchy there at best. And, as Hockenson truthers discovered last season, simply having a seemingly clear path to a ton of targets doesn't automatically turn a player into a star. 

This is where you can get pretty excited. Pitts is a historic talent in line to be the clear No. 1 option in his passing game, and if he doesn't make the step toward the Kelce/Andrews tier, it would be pretty disappointing. There's a pretty good chance this is your last chance to take him outside of the first round for the next half-decade. 

But he isn't alone. It's quite easy to talk yourself into any of Kmet, Okwuegbunam, Fant, Freiermuth, Goedert, Hockenson, Schultz, Njoku … There really is some interesting talent at the position, even if I'm not necessarily betting on all of them to break out.

No. I mean, I can't predict the future, but … no. 

The young talent at the position is intriguing, but that's nothing new – we've hyped the likes of Evan Engram, Hunter Henry, Hayden Hurst, David Njoku, Jonnu Smith, Tyler Higbee, O.J. Howard, and more as evidence that the position was going to be better than in the past, but the attrition rate at tight end is so high, your baseline assumption should be a failure for most of those guys. There's a reason we keep asking if tight end will suddenly be good year after year. 

The same as always: If you want a sure thing, you're going to pay a premium for them. Travis Kelce is probably going to cost you a late-first or early-second; Mark Andrews will be off the board by the mid-third in most drafts, with Kyle Pitts likely going not long after. Those are probably the only sure things, though George Kittle and Darren Waller are probably fine as fifth- or sixth-round picks, and Dalton Schultz and T.J. Hockenson are dependable (albeit probably low-upside) options available between 70th and 80th overall. 

If you're not going to get one of the early-round options, your best bet is probably to wait until the double-digit rounds and target two of Freiermuth, Kmet, Irv Smith, Okwuegbunam, Fant, or Njoku and hope one of them hits. 

• Albert Okwuegbunam – Okwuegbunam has the size and speed you're looking for from the high-end tight ends, and he has an opportunity to be the No. 3 option in what should be a very good passing offense with Russell Wilson at QB. Okwuegbunam hasn't done a ton so far in his NFL career – three games in two seasons with 50-plus yards – but the skill set is enticing enough to make him worth a late-round flier.
• T.J. Hockenson – In this instance, I'm using the term to indicate that I think most people are actually sleeping on Hockenson. He disappointed a lot of players last season, which led many to write off the possibility of him hitting another level, but I do wonder if Hockenson might not be better served to play as a No. 2 option. Amon-Ra St. Brown figures to be the leading target getter for the Lions, but Hockenson could still be No. 2, with St. Brown and newcomer DJ Chark helping draw defensive attention away. I could see Hockenson putting up something similar to 2020's 101 targets, but with career-best efficiency. He's a fine fallback option who is being overlooked. 

• Kyle Pitts – You can make a case for Pitts as a bust – Heath Cummings had him as both a breakout and a bust in his TE preview – because Pitts is being drafted with the assumption that he's going to take the step forward. I think he will, and I'm comfortable with his third-round price. He didn't even turn 21 until well into his rookie season, which makes his historic production even more impressive. He just needs a bit better touchdown luck to cement his place as an elite TE. 
• David Njoku – Talent has never been the question with Njoku – injuries and inconsistency have been the real problem. Well, he was terrific in a limited role last season, averaging 9.0 yards per target on 53 targets, and with Austin Hooper out of the way, he figures to see a much larger role. 800 yards and six-plus touchdowns aren't out of the question here. 

• George Kittle – I think Kittle might just be the best all-around tight end in football, but I'm really worried about his Fantasy value right now. Trey Lance has reportedly struggled with accuracy in camp, which makes me worried about the entire 49ers passing game even before I remember that this is likely to be one of the lowest-volume passing teams in the league. Kittle has a ton of competition for targets with Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel around, and he had just 26 targets over his final six games last season, including the playoffs. I fear there are going to be a lot of stretches like that this season. 
• Dawson Knox – Knox feels like one of the most obvious fades at any position this season. He finished as TE10 in points per game last season because he matched the position lead in touchdowns, but he has seven games in his career with 50-plus yards – only three of which actually came last season. He'll have a red zone role again, but you can't expect him to score once every eight targets again, and it's hard to see how he has a significantly bigger role overall when we're also expecting Stefon Diggs to remain one of the league leaders in targets and for Gabriel Davis. This feels like a repeat of Robert Tonyan last year. 

Here are my rankings for tight end:

1. Travis Kelce*
2. Mark Andrews*
3. Kyle Pitts*
4. George Kittle
5. Darren Waller*
6. T.J. Hockenson
7. Dalton Schultz
8. Dallas Goedert*
9. Mike Gesicki
10. Cole Kmet
11. Zach Ertz
12. Pat Freiermuth*
13. Albert Okwuegbunam
14. David Njoku
15. Noah Fant
16. Irv Smith*
17. Gerald Everett
18. Tyler Higbee
19. Austin Hooper
20. Dawson Knox
21. Hunter Henry
22. Evan Engram*
23. Logan Thomas
24. Robert Tonyan*

*End of a tier

Seahawks rookie running back Ken Walker III had "a procedure" done as a result of the injury he has been dealing with in recent days, but Seahawks coach Pete Carroll told reporters Wednesday it was not a sports hernia surgery. 

That's the good news. Unfortunately, it's also the only news we have, as the Seahawks have been frustratingly vague on details since we learned about the injury Tuesday. Knowing it isn't a sports hernia -- which I'm learning is a fundamentally different type of issue than a regular hernia, despite the name -- seems to rule out a more serious injury, at least based on what Ian Rappoport reported. According to that report, Walker had a procedure to repair a hernia and the hope is he'll be healthy for Week 1.

Carroll has said the team hopes Walker won't be out long, saying, "We've got a chance to get him back quickly." Of course, Carroll is notoriously unreliable when talking about injuries, nearly always publicly remaining optimistic regardless of the actual severity of the injury. We'll get more concrete details eventually, but right now, take Caroll's optimism with a grain of salt – especially since it regards a rookie running back suffering an injury during training camp, which will invariably put him behind schedule even if it does end up being a relatively minor issue that has him available for Week 1.

Walker has still been getting drafted around 100th overall recently, and I don't think you should move him down much – I was expecting him to be the clear backup to Rashaad Penny to open the season, so I was only drafting him with the hopes he would eventually turn into something useful. But he's always been a bench piece you'd have to be patient with, and that remains true now. However, I do feel a bit more confident about drafting Penny as my RB2 if I wait on that spot, and I'm willing to push him into the top 90 overall to secure him. There isn't a ton of upside there seeing as he has just 23 catches in 37 career games, but he can be useful option if you don't want to spend much on your second RB. 

Here's the rest of the news you need to know from around the league Wednesday:  

Deshaun Watson's status for the 2022 season remains in the air as the NFL's appeal of his six-game suspension for sexual assault allegations remains pending, but reports indicate there could be resolution forthcoming. Watson has been engaged in settlement negotiations with the league and the NFL Players Association, with ESPN.com reporting that a resolution could come in the next few days.

Watson was initially suspended for six games without a fine, but the league appealed that decision and has been reportedly pushing for either a longer suspension and/or a monetary fine. The NFL wants an indefinite suspension that would last at least a year based on the multiple allegations against Watson, as well as the fault disciplinary officer Sue L. Robinson found during her initial ruling. 

Watson's status continues to hang over the Browns, as it has all offseason since they acquired him in March. A settlement would seemingly make it more likely Watson will be cleared to play at some point this season, although whether his suspension will be eight games or 12 or something longer remains to be determined. 

Either way, it seems more likely at this point that the Browns will be starting Jacoby Brissett for a significant chunk of the season, which does make it tougher to trust Amari Cooper especially, though Donovan Peoples-Jones and David Njoku would also have less appeal as sleepers with Brissett at QB. If Watson were suspended for eight games (more than half the Fantasy regular season), I would rank Cooper inside of the top 30 at wide receiver, viewing him as a boom-or-bust WR3 with Brissett and potentially a top-12 option with Watson.

Though, it is worth noting that Watson didn't play a snap last year while holding out for a trade from the Texans, so he'll likely have gone nearly two full calendar years between real NFL action – and he looked pretty rusty in his preseason debut last weekend, completing 1 of 5 passes for 7 yards in his three series. We could be looking at a situation where, even in a best-case scenario, Watson plays for the first time in Week 10, with the only time we've seen him since 2020 being that one ugly preseason game.

Which is all to say, I don't think Watson is worth the trouble in Fantasy even if he does end up settling for a surprisingly lenient punishment. The best-case-scenario still leaves you with a dead roster spot for most of the regular season. 

Hardman exited Wednesday's practice with a left leg injury, which is believed to be a groin issue. He was jumping to try to catch a ball when he landed awkwardly and limped to the sidelines, where he was carted back to the locker room. Early indications are that the injury is not considered serious, but it's certainly something to keep an eye on given the ambiguity of the Chiefs receiving corps. Tyreek Hill is gone, and the Chiefs brought in JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Skyy Moore  to try to help replace him, and we enter the season without a clear sense of what the hierarchy is. It's conceivable that those three plus Hardman will all split targets and snaps to the point where nobody beyond Travis Kelce is all that useful, so if one of them were to go down, it would help clarify the situation. Hopefully Hardman is fine, but we'll watch this one moving forward. 

It's also worth noting, on that topic, that Smith-Schuster missed practice himself Tuesday and Wednesday with a knee issue. The extent of that is not yet known either, so there are some moving parts here. 

Waller, who had been out since the end of July with a hamstring injury, was back out there Wednesday. He missed more than two weeks, but it seems like he's got more than enough time to get up to speed in time for Week 1. He's one of the more talented tight ends in the league, but the presence of Davante Adams makes it harder to trust him than it has been in recent seasons. He's a decent sixth round pick, but there's risk if you reach for him any higher than that. 

Burrow is back at practice after having appendix surgery, and he confirmed Tuesday the extent of the issue that caused him to go under the knife. Burrow told reporters his appendix burst, requiring an emergency appendectomy, and he has lost 20 pounds over the past few weeks since the procedure. He was back to participating in 11-on-11 drills Tuesday, but admitted he doesn't have his normal "juice" on his throws yet after having core pain, but is working on regaining the lost weight and plans to be fully ready to go for the opener in Week 1 against the Steelers . That's Sept. 11, so there's plenty of time for that, and there doesn't seem to be any reason to think Burrow won't be 100% for the start of the season. Burrow is a bust candidate because he's being drafted as a top-four QB. Nobody really doubts the talent, and this surgery doesn't seem likely to play a part one way or the other. 

Lock was in line to start the second preseason game against the Bears this weekend as part of his ongoing battle with Geno Smith for the starting spot, though I wouldn't expect this to alter his chances to win the job too much. Smith entered camp as the incumbent, but there's still a preseason game left for Lock to pull ahead if he can get back to 100% shortly. He probably has a bit more upside than Smith in a best-case scenario for both, but Lock has also has significant downside – he had a 22% bad throw rate over the past two seasons, a bottom-four rate among all quarterbacks. What you'd like to hear from Seahawks  camp is that Lock has played so well that they have no choice but to start him, but that isn't really the sense we've gotten even before this, so my expectations for this offense remain pretty low – it could be the worst in football. 

Smith had thumb surgery a few weeks back but was always expected to be ready for Week 1, so this is a good sign to that end. He has breakout potential in an offense that is expected to throw the ball much more, so seeing him starting to ramp up his work in practice is a good sign. Smith remains in play as a late-round TE target, though his track record (66 catches, 676 yards and seven touchdowns in two seasons) suggests you'll want to pair him with another tight end with a more secure role to open the season.