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| Wednesday, November 27, 2024 |
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| Check it out -- Beyond the Box Score Part Two! |
| Happy almost Thanksgiving, or happy Thanksgiving if you are reading this on Thursday! Whenever you find this, I hope that it finds you well. This week's scheduling will be a deviation from our usual routine, and we'll get back to business next week. |
| Here's what you can expect this week: |
| Wednesday -- Advanced matchup notes for the Thursday games |
| Thursday -- Fun stats to spout off to your family/friends while watching the games |
| Friday -- Tiered rankings update |
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| Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions |
Over/Under - 48.5 points
Implied point totals - Detroit (29.5), Chicago (19) |
| The flow of this game will almost certainly come down to Caleb Williams. Can he keep the Bears offense on track and avoid taking sacks? Can he handle a Detroit Lions defense that ranks seventh in pressure rate on the year (37%) and has generated a pressure rate above 40% in two of the past three games? No quarterback has thrown for more than one touchdown vs. this defense all year. Detroit's past two opponents have each scored just six points. No offense has topped 30 points vs. the Lions all season. The seven opponents that Detroit has faced following a Week 5 bye have averaged only 14.4 points. |
| Caleb Williams is playing good ball lately, though. Can he carry those vibes over and deliver an unexpected Thanksgiving day miracle? That's probably asking way too much, but the vibes have been much better since moving on from Shane Waldron as the team's offensive coordinator. |
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| For Fantasy purposes, Williams is intriguing in this spot. And if choosing one of his pass-catchers to place a bet on, the best guess may honestly be Keenan Allen. |
| If you follow this link, it will take you to the precise moment when Dan and I began discussing the recent developments in usage for the Bears pass-catchers. |
| I mentioned Allen as possibly the best guess because the Lions have been susceptible to slot players (third-highest opponent slot target rate in the NFL), and Allen is the primary slot for Chicago. All three receivers move around, though, and Cole Kmet also works from the slot. Perhaps the most important note for this matchup is schematic -- the Lions use man coverage more (43.8% of the time) than any defense. Detroit also ranks seventh in press coverage rate (72%). |
| Allen has the best splits vs. press coverage of the Bears receivers in 2024, both D.J. Moore and Rome Odunze have abysmal press coverage data. If looking at splits vs. single-man coverage, Allen and Odunze look like the best bets for production in this matchup. |
| Target per route run rate vs. single-man coverage in 2024: |
38% -- Allen
30% -- Odunze
26% -- Moore |
| Yards per route run vs. single-man coverage in 2024: |
2.02 -- Odunze
1.63 -- Allen
1.42 -- Moore |
| What happens on the Detroit side of the ball will likely be somewhat dictated by Chicago's ability to keep the game competitive. Although, as we recently saw in a blowout win over the Jaguars, Detroit is still capable of putting up 400+ passing yards even if the game was not competitive. |
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| Keep starting all of your Lions |
| Well, maybe not Sam LaPorta. He's the TE18 in my early Week 13 rankings. The usage is just not there for LaPorta. He's good enough to turn in a productive game in any given matchup, but it's truly a roll of the dice. |
| For the rest of the Lions primary options, the analysis is simple for season-long players: start them! If looking for an edge in DFS, your best bet is probably to attack with the running backs. |
| According to the FP Data Suite, the Lions have the single most advantageous matchup when it comes to controlling the game on the ground. Aaron Jones went for 129 scrimmage yards and a score vs. this defense last week, making it now a month-straight of opposing backfields topping 100 scrimmage yards vs. Chicago. |
| Another big Jameson Williams week? Could be fun! |
| Opposing offenses often choose to lean on the run game against a Chicago defense that can generate a ton of pressure with its pass rush. Last week, we saw the Vikings air it out anyway, and the result was explosives in the pass game to Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson. On the year, the Bears have the eighth-lowest opponent first-read target rate. We've seen big games for secondary options such as Addison (8-162-1 receiving) and Christian Watson (4-150) vs. this defense, and the other two biggest games vs. Chicago came from vertical threats in Terry McLaurin (5-125) and Nico Collins (8-135-1). |
| Schematically, what stands out about Chicago's defense is a heavy use of Cover-3. The Bears rank fifth with a 40% Cover-3 rate. On paper, Amon-Ra St. Brown is the Lions player who has benefited the most vs. this coverage type. He's not a bad option if looking for a DFS play that may go a bit overlooked and of course brings upside for a massive game in any given matchup. |
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| New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys |
Over/Under - 37.5 points
Implied point totals - Dallas (20.5), New York (17) |
| Pressure problems? |
| Micah Parsons returned for the Cowboys in Week 10, and the Dallas defense has generated a pressure rate of 42% since then. That's an elite number, only one defense has a higher pressure rate on the year. |
| The Giants are missing star left tackle Andrew Thomas, and his replacement was injured recently as well. Drew Lock is set to step in as the starting QB on Thanksgiving, and he has not fared well (43% completion rate and 4.9 yards per attempt) vs. pressure throughout his career. |
| Malik Nabers has been super sensitive when it comes to how pressure has impacted his production. The Giants use Nabers primarily down the field, and so he is seriously affected by inept blocking and QB play disrupting the necessary timing to deliver downfield throws. |
| Pressure production for Nabers: |
QB under pressure -- 1.12 yards per route run
QB not pressured -- 2.75 yards per route run |
| That stat is courtesy of the Fantasy Points Data Suite. As a reminder, you can check out the FP Data Suite for free this week! |
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| Tyrone Tracy looks like the best Week 13 option the Giants have offensively. Will they trust the rookie? |
| If re-instated as the lead back, Tracy could be productive vs. the Cowboys defense. The run game is the easiest way to circumnavigate a scary Dallas pass rush -- the boys have the fifth-worst adjusted rushing yards before contact surrendered in 2024, per the FP Data Suite, and this lines up as the seventh-most advantageous run-game matchups of the entire week. |
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| Devin Singletary found little success moving the chains (14 carries for 24 yards) on the ground against this defense in Week 4. If that's the plan for the Giants offensively, then this is likely going to be a snooze fest. |
| CeeDee Lamb is a HOT play for PPR formats for the time being |
| I'm not sure how long an already-injured Lamb is going to keep taking hits for a non-contending Cowboys team in 2024, but he is currently a decent Fantasy option because his offense is force-feeding short-yardage looks his way. |
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| This brings me to the "HOT" part of my oh-so-clever headline. The Giants have blitzed like crazy over the past month, but it has not resulted in much. New York's blitz rate is at 41% (league average is 28%) during that time, which has resulted in a 29% pressure rate (league average is 34%) and just one sack. I expect Lamb to be the "hot" route often, meaning that his role is to be prepared for a quick target if his QB needs to get rid of the ball to beat the blitz. |
| Lamb has a 34% target per route run rate vs. the blitz in 2024, that's the third-highest among qualified receivers. Since Cooper Rush took over at QB, that rate has risen to 48%. |
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| Miami Dolphins at Green Bay Packers |
Over/Under - 47.5 points
Implied point totals - Green Bay (25.5), Miami (22) |
| This may just be cope, but I think there might be hope for Green Bay's passing game pieces in Week 13. Recently, the Packers have been so run-heavy that it's been hard for Jordan Love, Jayden Reed, or any of the Packers who aren't named Josh Jacobs to be trusted in Fantasy. |
| On Thanksgiving night, the Packers take on a Dolphins defense that has been tough as nails vs. the run since a Week 6 bye. In the six games since then, opposing starting running backs have averaged 40 yards on the ground vs. Miami. Kyren Williams (62 rushing yards) is the only starting back during that stretch to top 60 yards on the ground. |
| Perhaps related, each of Miami's past four opponents has posted a pass rate well over expectation. Miami's opponent PROE is the third-highest in football over the past month, meaning offenses are choosing to attack the Dolphins defense with the pass. |
| The position group to attack Miami's defense with has appeared to be tight end. Four of the past five offenses to face Miami have funneled 10+ targets to the TE position. |
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| Schematically, there isn't much that stands out from Miami's defensive approach. The Dolphins hover around league-average in most of the defensive metrics that I track. I'm comfortable starting Jayden Reed and Tucker Kraft vs. this defense, Josh Jacobs and Jordan Love are near auto-plays with such lofty point totals projected by Vegas line-setters, and you have my permission to take a chance on Dontayvion Wicks or Christian Watson if desperate. |
| Another Jonnu Smith game?! |
| The Packers use a ton of zone coverage (74%), but we have not seen opponents use running backs much in this matchup. Recently, none of the past five primary running backs to face Miami -- including Christian McCaffrey, D'Andre Swift, and Jahmyr Gibbs -- have left a game with more than five targets or 40 receiving yards. Instead, Green Bay has the second-highest opponent slot target rate and a slightly above-average opponent TE target rate. Typically, zone-heavy defenses result in more targets for running backs, slot players, and tight ends. The players who occupy the short-middle area of the field usually pile up targets against defenses, particularly ones that use lots of Cover-2 like the Packers. |
| Smith accounted for a team-high 32% first-read target rate for the Dolphins in Week 12, no other pass-catcher had a rate above 20%. Smith leads the Dolphins in receiving first downs on the year. If you haven't yet, check out the Miami Dolphins portion of the recent Beyond the Box Score episode that I recorded with Dan. There were several interesting notes in there regarding De'Von Achane's receiving role and the offense as a whole. |
| If you have any feedback on the newsletter, feel free to send it my way! Thank you for reading! |
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| | | | | NFL | | College Football | The John Madden Thanksgiving Celebration returns with a classic Midwest matchup! Watch the Bears take on the Lions live this Thanksgiving at 12:30 ET on CBS and streaming on Paramount+.
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| | Dig into College Football this Thanksgiving starting with a Friday doubleheader between Minnesota at Wisconsin at 12 PM ET and Stanford at San Jose St at 4 PM ET. Then catch a Saturday matchup between rivals Notre Dame and USC at 3:30 PM ET, all on CBS and streaming on Paramount+.
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