No matter how many times he says he's not running, the idea of House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) swooping in to save Republicans from Donald Trump at the GOP convention in July just won't die. That's because members of the Republican establishment are desperate for an alternative to Donald Trump — and, to a lesser extent, Ted Cruz. They have settled on Ryan, for reasons we'll outline below. It's an unlikely scenario, but what the heck, people are talking about it. So let's go there and look at the reasons why Ryan might — and, more likely, might not — somehow become the GOP's 2016 nominee for president. (More arguments here.) Yes: Ryan can unify the party ( Jim Lo Scalzo/EPA) To many Republicans, Ryan is everything Trump isn't: He's a policy wonk, he's got a long history of supporting conservative policies, he rarely misspeaks, and he preachers inclusiveness instead of divisiveness. Republicans keen on Ryan's anti-Trump persona might be able to convince Ryan it's a now-or-never moment to jump in to unify the party. A reluctant Ryan heard a similar argument from Republicans in the fall when they were convincing him to take the speakership — and what do you know, it worked. No: He'd be a sacrificial lamb (Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg) Now that he's speaker, Ryan is a bona-fide member of the establishment, and this has proven to be a terrible year for anyone in the establishment. Once-fawning conservative blogs have turned on him since he got the job, and Ryan was even booed at a Trump rally in the speaker's hometown of Janesville, Wis., last week. Plus, what if Trump makes good on a threat to run as a third-party candidate? Such a situation would all but guarantee the Republican vote is split, and Hillary Clinton is our next president. Ryan may well want to be president some day, but he's smart enough to know this isn't the year for him to run. How does a contested convention even work? It's a complicated, convoluted, somewhat bureaucratic process, but it could be pretty important to who wins the Republican nomination. As such, we'll visit this question at least a few more times in The 5-Minute Fix, especially if a contested convention is increasingly likely, as it is right now. This first installment is on the basics: The set-up: Let's say we get to the Cleveland convention in July and none of the three candidates left in the race have earned a majority of delegates — 1,237, to be exact. We have a contested (also called a brokered) convention on our hands. |