Bold prediction: You may have thought this was impossible, but the inescapable Thanksgiving dinner political debate this year is going to feature even more conjecture and baseless opinion than in years past. We're all still trying to understand what happened two-and-a-half weeks ago and what it will mean for all of us going forward, and in those …
 
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Bold prediction: You may have thought this was impossible, but the inescapable Thanksgiving dinner political debate this year is going to feature even more conjecture and baseless opinion than in years past.

We're all still trying to understand what happened two-and-a-half weeks ago and what it will mean for all of us going forward, and in those situations, rumors thrive.

So because we have little else to go on, here's a conjecture-heavy — but fact-based — guide on how to (try to) win politics at Thanksgiving. The strategy: Pick your favorite theory to explain any of the questions below, argue it like hell, and hope you win.

Why did Donald Trump win?

(FILES) This file photo taken on November 9, 2016 shows President-elect Donald Trump speaking during election night at the New York Hilton Midtown in New York. Donald Trump will keep his vow to deport millions of undocumented migrants from the United States, he said in an interview to be broadcast November 13, 2016, saying as many as three million could be removed after he takes office. "What we are going to do is get the people that are criminal and have criminal records, gang members, drug dealers, where a lot of these people, probably two million, it could be even three million, we are getting them out of our country or we are going to incarcerate," Trump said in an excerpt released ahead of broadcast by CBS's 60 Minutes program. / AFP PHOTO / MANDEL NGANMANDEL NGAN/AFP/Getty Images

(AFP PHOTO / MANDEL NGAN)

Here are some explanations, all of which are rooted in 2016 exit-polling data:

1. Rural and suburban voters: Trump over-performed among mostly white, working-class voters outside urban areas in a way that the polls didn't predict. (Something for pollsters to ponder for the next four years.)

(Philip Bump / The Washington Post)

(Philip Bump / The Washington Post)

2. Urban areas: Hillary Clinton underperformed in cities, especially among black and Hispanic voters. There really wasn't a significant difference in turnout among these core Democratic groups from past presidential elections, which is fascinating given how Trump spent large portions of his campaign alienating these voters from Republicans.

3. He was always going to win. And the polls just got it wrong.

Why did Hillary Clinton lose?

Hillary Clinton addresses the Children's Defense Fund's Beat the Odds celebration at the Newseum in Washington, Wednesday, Nov. 16, 2016. (AP Photo/Cliff Owen)

Hillary Clinton. (AP Photo/Cliff Owen)

Post-election, everyone's a critic. Here are some theories espoused by top Democrats:

1. James Comey: The FBI director's announcement nine days before the election that agents had found emails pertinent to Clinton's use of a private email server didn't amount to much legally. But politically, it may have reminded voters what they don't like about Clinton: In part because of her email scandal, her honesty and trustworthy ratings were in the tank for most of this election.

2. Clinton didn't run a grass roots campaign. To quote President Obama in a news conference after the election: “I won Iowa not because the demographics dictated that I would win Iowa. It was because I spent 87 days going to every small town and fair and fish fry and VFW Hall.” That definitely seemed like a dis at Clinton and how much (little) time she spent campaigning in states she lost.

3. Democrats lost the working-class vote: The Fix’s Philip Bump points out that Trump got more support from white men without a college degree than Mitt Romney did in 2012. Liberal leaders Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Ma.) think that's because Clinton failed to talk to those people.

4. She played the gender card too heavily: (Warning! Only throw this one out if you want to risk abruptly ending your Thanksgiving dinner.) But it has been suggested. Here's what Sanders said in a speech in Boston this week: “It is not good enough for somebody to say, 'I'm a woman, vote for me.' That is not good enough.”

What's Trump going to be like as president?

 (Don Emmert/AFP/Getty Images)

(Don Emmert/AFP/Getty Images)

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Honestly, your prediction is as good as mine. We've been following his transition closely, and here are some of my educated guesses:

1. He's going to strike a hard line on terrorism: Three of his picks for top national security positions — retired Lt. Gen. Michael G. Flynn (national security adviser), Rep. Mike Pompeo (head of the CIA), and Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.) (Justice Department)— and are all known for their hard-line views on “radical Islam."

2. He's not keen to intervene militarily: The other day, Trump hosted Democratic Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (Hawaii), someone who opposes any escalation of the conflict in Syria.

3. He'll leave social issues alone: Legalized marijuana, abortion, gay marriage. These are all things conservatives want to repeal that Trump doesn't seem to care too much about.

4. He's setting himself up for lots of potential conflicts of interest: Mainly by letting his family run his company, which has business in 18 countries, and appearing to let his family sit in on meetings with foreign dignitaries. We even have a running list of the ways Trump's new job may help his business interests.

5. He could be very different than Trump the campaigner: Scrapping Obamacare. Scrapping the Paris climate agreement. Appointing a prosecutor to investigate Clinton and her emails. These are all campaign promises Trump has recently backed off, just two-and-a-half weeks after the election.

Let's end with some rapid-fire questions you might get at Thanksgiving that really only have one answer.

Can we finally get rid of the electoral college?

PHILADELPHIA, PA - NOVEMBER 13: Protestors demonstrate against President-elect Donald Trump outside Independence Hall November 13, 2016 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Republican candidate lost the popular vote by more than a million votes, but won the electoral college. (Photo by Mark Makela/Getty Images)

A protester in Philadelphia (Mark Makela/Getty Images)

No. To get rid of the state-points-allocated system that picks our president, you'd have to have most of Congress and most of the states approve a constitutional amendment. Republicans just happen to control a majority of Congress AND statehouses. And of late the electoral college just happens to have benefited Republicans: They have lost the popular vote in six of the past seven presidential elections and yet won three of the past seven elections.

I heard this theory the election was rigged against Clinton. Was it rigged?

No.

Do you know who the first president to pardon a turkey was?

epa05041808 US President Barack Obama (C) pardons the National Thanksgiving Turkey, beside presidential turkey handler Joe Hedden (L) and National Turkey Federation Chairman Jihad Douglas (R), in a ceremony in the Rose Garden of the White House in Washington, DC, USA, 25 November 2015. This year's turkeys, 'Abe' and 'Honest', are both 18-week old, 40-pound turkeys and were raised in the Central Valley of California. After the pardoning, the turkeys will travel to their permanent home at Morven Park's 'Turkey Hill' - a historic turkey farm in Leesburg, Virginia. EPA/MICHAEL REYNOLDS

President Obama and a turkey. (EPA/MICHAEL REYNOLDS)

Actually, yes. I was listening to this really great podcast the other day, Fix Boss Chris Cillizza's Ciquizza*, and I learned the answer is complicated: Some think it's Abraham Lincoln, others Harry Truman. It's actually John F. Kennedy. *Okay, I plugged your podcast, boss. Can I have a raise now?

Hopefully you're now prepped and ready for a political Thanksgiving. If you live through any epic political arguments Thursday, send 'em my way, and I'll try to share them in Friday's newsletter. Happy Thanksgiving!

(giphy.com)

(giphy.com)

 
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