The 5-Minute Fix from The Washington Post

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By Amber Phillips

At this stage in the game, there's a mountain of polling that's pulling us (get it?) in all sorts of directions.

Donald Trump is ahead in so-and-so states. No wait, Trump just tweeted something at 5:30 a.m. making fun of someone. Now Clinton is ahead. No, wait, her vice-presidential nominee didn't have a great debate. Now Trump has the edge.

It's best not to get caught up in all this — both for your sanity and because polling can lead you astray. Instead, says The Fix's polling guru, Philip Bump, think of presidential polling in swing states like a tug-of-war match:

That little flag dangling over the middle of the state gets yanked one direction or the other. If it's hanging over the Democratic side when voting is done, Hillary Clinton wins the electoral votes. If it's over the Republican side, they go to Donald Trump. A poll a month before the final tally is less a predictor of the final result than it is an indicator of how the rope is being tugged. A number of tugs in one direction over a short period of time tells you something about how the race will end up! But most polling consists of little tugs in either direction, without much movement overall.

Yeah, but ... can you still tell me who's going to win?

With that major caveat in mind, yes.

Keep in mind that the presidential election isn't decided by one, big national vote. It's decided by 50 votes in 50 states. So Bump built a tool that keeps track of the latest polling in the latest swing states and overlays it on our electoral map showing how many electoral votes each state is worth. The result is basically the presidential election if it were held literally right this minute.

A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win, and right nowish, polling tells us that Clinton has more than enough:

tool

But who won the vice-presidential debate, you say? Our partners at mic.com have the roundup:

CNNVP

Two polls on Wednesday morning show Trump with slight leads ahead of Clinton, like within a point or three.

But polling averages still show Clinton leading Trump by three percentage points, even when you include the two third-party candidates. Again, we caution: The 2016 presidential election is basically a game of tug-of-war right now.

RCP

The 2016 race, millennial edition

Turns out young people more than other people would really like to vote for someone for president not named Clinton or Trump. Like, anyone.

Bump also combed through some new polls and found that even though a quarter of young voters said they'd never heard of Democratic VP nominee Tim Kaine (click this link if you haven't either), they'd prefer him to Trump by 22 points.

Something similar happens when Fairleigh Dickinson polling matches up Indiana Gov. Mike Pence (R) with Clinton: Young voters in particular don't know who he is (click this link if you're among them), but sure, they'll vote for him over Clinton.

(Philip Bump / The Washington Post)

A name you should know: Rob Portman

FILE - In this July 19, 2016, file photo, Sen. Rob Portman, R-Ohio, right, arrives with his wife arrive at the The Rock and Roll Hall of Fame and Museum in Cleveland, during the second day of the Republican convention. Portman rolls out a labor endorsement from a union that had backed his Democratic rival Ted Strickland amid growing concerns among Democrats that Strickland is running a lackluster campaign and their chances of flipping the Ohio seat could be slipped away. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon, File)

Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio) (Alex Brandon/AP)

Let's take a break from presidential politics to talk about Ohio's GOP senator, who was supposed to be a major target for Democrats in their efforts to take back control of the Senate. Supposed to be.

Why we're talking about him now: Portman is arguably having the best election year of anyone in 2016. A poll in April showed him trailing his Democratic challenger — former Democratic governor Ted Strickland — by 9 points. Two new polls out Wednesday show Portman beating his Democratic challenger by 15 and 17 points.

Why you should remember his name: Portman is taking a tough reelection battle — Trump (he endorsed Trump but won't be seen with him), a swing state, a top Democratic target — and appears to be running away with it. If he wins this big, says The Fix's Aaron Blake, it will likely put him on the radar for even bigger races — if you know what I mean.

Let's end with Tim Kaine's best/worst dad jokes from the VP debate, because dad jokes

Democratic senatorial candidate Tim Kaine greets supporters during the Labor Day parade in Buena Vista, Va. on Monday, Sept. 3, 2012. The parade is the first big political event of the season in the Shenandoah Valley. (AP Photo/The Daily News Leader, Pat Jarrett)

Dad jeans! Also, Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) (Pat Jarrett/The Daily News Leader via AP)

We once called him the dad jeans of politics. And Kaine proved he can roll with the best of dads in Tuesday's vice presidential debate. We rounded up some of his best dad jokes. What do you think — funny or groan-worthy?

"Do you want a 'you're hired' president in Hillary Clinton or do you want a 'you're fired' president in Donald Trump?"

"If you don't know the difference between dictatorship and leadership, then you got to go back to a fifth-grade civics class."

"Hillary and I believe in comprehensive immigration reform. Donald Trump believes in deportation nation."

Let's hear it for awkwardly awesome dads. (NBC/giphy.com)

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