There is a strong argument to make that Donald Trump won the presidency by scraping out wins in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. In all three states, Trump won by less than a percentage point. (Michigan 0.2, Pennsylvania 0.7, and Wisconsin 0.8.) Put another way, calculates The Fix's Philip Bump, “but for 79,646 votes cast in …
 
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There is a strong argument to make that Donald Trump won the presidency by scraping out wins in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

In all three states, Trump won by less than a percentage point. (Michigan 0.2, Pennsylvania 0.7, and Wisconsin 0.8.) Put another way, calculates The Fix's Philip Bump, “but for 79,646 votes cast in those three states, [Hillary Clinton] would be the next president of the United States.”

Put another way, each of these light blue dots on the graphic Bump made below represent 20,000 votes cast for president. The itty bitty, teeny-tiny four dark blue dots in the middle represent Trump's margin of victory in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, three states that helped him win the election.

(Philip Bump / The Washington Post)

(Philip Bump / The Washington Post)

Put another way, the 2016 election was a remarkably close election decided by a remarkably small fraction of people.

Which brings us to: Why we can definitely say there was no widespread voter fraud

In this Tuesday, Nov. 8, 2016 photo, voters fill out their general election ballots at a polling place in Bradfordton, Ill. The state where both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton used to live may still be reliably Democratic when it comes to picking a president. But drill a little deeper, and it's clear how much things changed even in Illinois on Tuesday, just like they did elsewhere in the U.S. Donald Trump won a dozen more counties than Mitt Romney did in 2012, and he won several counties that went for Obama four years ago, including a county that hasn't backed the GOP presidential candidate in at least a quarter century.(AP Photo/Seth Perlman-File)

Voters in Illinois on Election Day. (Seth Perlman/AP)

Just because the election was close doesn't mean it was rigged, like people on both sides have been insinuating or, in Trump's case, outright saying.

Three Dartmouth College political scientists just finished an extensive study of voter fraud in the election, and they wrote about it for The Washington Post. Their aim is to definitively answer whether there is any evidence of widespread voter fraud. (Short answer: No.) I summarize their findings below:

1) Did a lot of dead people vote for Clinton? No. Trump actually performed better than Clinton in counties that have a higher proportion of recently dead people.

2) Did “millions” of illegal immigrants vote for Clinton? No. In the parts of the nation where Clinton's share of the votes was unexpectedly high, there weren't any more or less illegal immigrants of voting age than the rest of the nation. The same is true for where Trump's voter share spiked.

3) Did election officials rig the vote totals? Also, no. Among the counties that flipped for either candidate late in the game (exactly where you'd expect corrupt officials to step in), Trump actually gained a net 33,000 votes in battleground states.

“In other words,” these Dartmouth political scientists write, “this is the opposite of what we would expect if the results were rigged against Trump.”

4) I'll add a fourth rebuttal to any widespread fraud claims: It's virtually impossible for Russia or other foreign countries to have hacked our election results, in part because many of our vote-counting machines aren't even connected to the Internet.

Trump just got a lesson in promises (that you should keep them)

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump speaks during an event at Carrier Corp. in Indianapolis, Indiana, U.S., on Thursday, Dec. 1, 2016. Trump said he called the top executive of United Technologies Corp. shortly after his election and told him not to close a Carrier factory in Indianapolis that became a symbol of the Republican's outsider campaign for the Republican's outsider campaign for the White House. Photographer: Daniel Acker/Bloomberg

Donald Trump on Thursday at the Carrier manufacturing plant in Indiana. (Daniel Acker/Bloomberg)

One August night, on a stage before thousands in Indiana, Candidate Trump expressed dismay that a manufacturing plant in the state was planning to ship jobs to Mexico. “We're not going to let Carrier leave,” he said.

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One December night, on a stage before thousands in Indiana, President-elect Trump said he was surprised people took him literally. “I never thought I made that promise — not with Carrier,” Trump told the crowd Thursday.

Trump, of course, did end up saving hundreds of Carrier jobs from moving to Mexico (though economists question how sustainable it is to stop U.S. factories from moving their workforce overseas, given most of those jobs have already left.)

But his admission he forgot he promised to do so makes his Carrier-job-saving effort seem more like a coincidence rather than a concerted effort to keep his campaign promises.

And that's a problem for Trump. Carrier is not the only plant — nor struggling Indiana workers the only workers — who heard Trump make literally hundreds of promises during the campaign and who, more likely than not, hold him at his word to keep it.

“For the first time, the president-elect has been asked to cash a check that his mouth wrote,” writes The Fix's Aaron Blake. “There will be more.”

Supporters of US President-elect Donald Trump hold a street-side rally in front of Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton in Oceanside, California, on November 11, 2016. / AFP PHOTO / Bill WechterBILL WECHTER/AFP/Getty Images

Donald Trump supporters in Oceanside, Calif., in November. (Bill Wechter/AFP)

Your happy hour talking point: mad dogs (and Mad Dog)

MadDog

Trump confirmed Thursday night he'll nominate retired Gen. James Mattis for the Department of Defense. Mattis is known for his aggressive talk and tough stance toward Iran, the Islamic State and Russia.

But for our purposes of lively bar talk, let's discuss his very interesting nickname.

Mattis's Marines apparently dubbed him “Mad Dog” while they were in trenches of the Iraq War. The LA Times wrote at the time that calling someone “mad dog” is “high praise in Marine culture.”

That's despite the fact “Mad Dog” does not have an illustrious history as a nickname, as The Post's Ben Guarino explores:

  • In late 16th century pubs, a strong brew was a “mad dog.”
  • As a verb, it is slang for glaring
  • The first and most famous Mad Dog was Vincent “Mad Dog” Coll, a mafia hit man in the '20s and '30s whose wayward bullet killed a 5-year-old.

Pretty soon we might add to the list of "Mad Dogs" that one is the leader of America's military.

Happy Friday!

"Mad Dog" Coll in the 1930s (Library of Congress)

“Mad Dog” Coll in the 1930s. (Library of Congress)

2016 “Mad Dog” James N. Mattis, briefing troops in 2001. (Jim Hollander/EPA)

Not mad dogs. (giphy.com)

Not mad dogs. (giphy.com)

 
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