This is not the way vice presidential rollouts are supposed to go. We know Donald Trump rarely, if ever, does anything by the book, and that's worked out for him pretty well so far. But eschewing the rules the way he did with this veepstakes may have hurt him more than helped him. To explain, let's …
 
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This is not the way vice presidential rollouts are supposed to go.

We know Donald Trump rarely, if ever, does anything by the book, and that's worked out for him pretty well so far. But eschewing the rules the way he did with this veepstakes may have hurt him more than helped him.

To explain, let's run down the past 24 to 48 hours -- which I piece together in more detail here:

Trump said he had five names, maybe 10. Then one guy in mind. Then two. Maybe it was this guy, he told aides. Yes, definitely this guy. Actually, it might not be this guy; his family and advisers want other guys. Then, publicly: "I haven't made up my mind," Trump said Thursday night, following reports he had indeed made up his mind. Oh wait, he actually has made up his mind — and just in the nick of time for his choice, Indiana Gov. Mike Pence (R), to get out of his reelection bid back home.

Got all that? We were following every second of it, and we didn't either.

The point is, Trump knows how to put on a media spectacle and work it to his advantage. But as my colleague Dan Balz so astutely points out, this vice-presidential chaos suggests a campaign out of control with its messaging -- and perhaps a candidate torn between his head and his heart.

Here's why the chaos matters

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump (R) and Indiana Governor Mike Pence (L) wave to the crowd before addressing the crowd during a campaign stop at the Grand Park Events Center in Westfield, Indiana, July 12, 2016. REUTERS/John Sommers II

Mike Pence and Donald Trump on Tuesday, before the chaos. (REUTERS/John Sommers II)

Trump may have just thrown away an opportunity for a neatly packaged, narrative-defining media opportunity that only comes once or twice in a campaign.

As The Fix's Philip Bump explains, "The announcement of a vice-presidential choice is a guaranteed moment of media attention, and so campaigns do their best to manage how the announcement is made. If it leaks early, fewer people will tune in to hear the announcement — and fewer people will hear the speeches arguing for why the ticket is preferable to the alternative."

Instead, Bump continues: "Trump managed to do just about everything possible to draw attention away from the assets that Pence provides to his campaign and, instead, to make his campaign look like a mess."

Mess aside, why is Trumpence a smart political move?

I'd argue it's because the two candidates are near total opposites. Consider:

  • Pence is a social conservative; evangelicals are wary of Trump.
  • Pence was a former GOP leader in Congress and has a ton of connections there; Trump tends to alienate those folks.
  • Pence is a stickler for staying on message; Trump finds scripts and teleprompters boring.

As Matt Tully of the Indianapolis Star told Fix Boss Chris Cillizza: "[Pence] does very well one on one; even his fiercest critics (well, many of them) will tell you what a nice guy he is."

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Not convinced? Cillizza breaks down more reasons why Pence makes sense for Trump, like a path to victory that goes through Pence's home neighborhood, the Midwest.

(The Washington Post)

(The Washington Post)

Now, the downsides for Trumpence (get used to that nickname, cause I'm running with it)

Pence may be too much like Hillary Clinton. No, he's not a closet Democrat, but as The Fix's Aaron Blake points out, he does have a number of qualities that undercut some of Trump's most effective arguments against Clinton. Like:

  • She's an insider. Well, Pence has spent the past 15 years in elected office, including 12 in Congress.
  • She's pro-war. Well, Pence was among the biggest supporters of the Iraq War that Trump says is such a disaster.
  • She's too soft on Islamic State. But Pence has said this:
    Screen Shot 2016-07-15 at 4.00.35 PM
  • She is pro-free trade. So is Pence.
    Screen Shot 2016-07-15 at 4.14.40 PM

The number that should give Trump hope that all will be all right

67 percent. That's how many Americans say Clinton is NOT honest and trustworthy, according to a new New York Times / CBS News poll. Trump's trustworthy numbers aren't much better (62 percent), but we're pretty sure Clinton's camp is losing more sleep over this than Trump's.

Why? Well, we mentioned at the beginning of this newsletter Trump's propensity for doing things differently. When it comes to this critical matchup of trustworthiness, being a rule breaker might indeed work for him.

Cillizza:"Clinton needs to move her trust numbers to win while Trump probably doesn't. When voting for chaos and total upheaval, all the old rules go out the window."


That's it for this week!  Next week, the Republican convention starts, and we're fully expecting Trump to accept his party's nomination for president. Then the real fun begins.

We'll have everything you need to know delivered straight to your inboxes, plus more analysis on The Fix.

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