Donald Trump says this is basically Hillary Clinton's Watergate. Top Senate Democrat Harry Reid says FBI chief James Comey is the one who broke the law by trying to tip the election in favor of Republicans. In other words, there is a TON of political noise. But let's put that aside to ask what we really know …
 
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Donald Trump says this is basically Hillary Clinton's Watergate. Top Senate Democrat Harry Reid says FBI chief James Comey is the one who broke the law by trying to tip the election in favor of Republicans.

In other words, there is a TON of political noise. But let's put that aside to ask what we really know about the FBI's announcement to Congress Friday that it found emails "pertinent" to its criminal investigation of Clinton's private email server.

Fix Boss Chris Cillizza attempted to lay it all out in the frame of what we don't know because, well, there's still a lot we don't know. Here's a condensed version.

1. How many emails are there? Sources tell The Washington Post there are more than 650,000 emails on the computer that top Clinton aide Huma Abedin and disgraced former congressman Anthony Weiner shared. (The two are in the process of getting a divorce, and the FBI's investigation into Weiner sexting an underage girl is what started this whole thing.)

But not all of those emails may be about, to or from Clinton. And some may be duplicates of emails the FBI already examined on Clinton's server.

Hillary Clinton speaks with senior aide Huma Abedin. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik, File)

2. Will any of Clinton's deleted emails be recovered? Recall Clinton deleted more emails than she turned over to the State Department last year when the world found out she was using a private email server as secretary of state. Clinton said those 33,000 emails were personal, not work related. But we know her lawyers relied on subject lines to make that determination. We don't know what emails FBI investigators have found or are about to find.

(The Washington Post)

(The Washington Post)

3. When will we hear from Comey again? The story isn't just about Clinton. It has also become about the Republican FBI director who made the call to tell Congress and the world. Comey's Republican critics are piling up by the hour. At some point, the criticism will reach fever pitch from both sides and he'll likely have to speak. That could be this week: A top Senate Republican wrote to Comey on Monday demanding he basically answer all these questions — in writing to the senator — by Friday.

4. Will this be over before Nov. 8? The FBI just obtained a search warrant Sunday to comb through Abedin and Weiner's emails. If they find nothing, it could be over soon. But no one knows how long an investigation is going to take, because no one really knows what's on that computer.

5. Will Clinton be indicted? The FBI has already said simply breaking the rules about taking her work emails off work servers is not a crime. You need to prove intent, too. So, writes Cillizza, "something the bureau finds in those emails would have to prove that [Clinton] intended to obfuscate and break the rules with her email server setup." Otherwise, probably not.

Let's turn the tables and ask: Did FBI chief Comey break the law by talking Clinton emails?

James Comey, director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), swears in to a House Oversight and Government Reform Committee hearing in Washington, D.C., U.S., on Thursday, July 7, 2016. Comey is appearing before the committee to explain his finding that no reasonable prosecutor would bring a criminal case against Hillary Clinton, the former secretary of state and presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, even though she and her staff were extremely careless in their handling of highly classified information. Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg

FBI Director James Comey testifying to Congress in July about their investigation into Clinton's emails. (Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg)

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It's possible. Largely because of this one line in a short letter Comey sent to FBI employees explaining why he told Congress about the emails: "I also think it would be misleading to the American people were we not to supplement the record."

A legal expert I spoke to says that might be grounds for investigating whether Comey violated the Hatch Act, a law prohibiting government officials from influencing an election.

Kathleen Clark with Washington University in St. Louis told me: "When the head of the FBI sends a letter in order to not 'mislead' the American public 11 days before the election, do you think he's trying to influence the election?"

Meanwhile, the race is tightening

Cue smug Donald Trump, campaigning in Michigan on Monday. (REUTERS/Carlo Allegri)

But not necessarily because of all this FBI stuff. It's mostly about one number in particular: 59.

That's the percentage of registered voters who have a negative view of Trump, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News tracking poll. It's also how many voters have an unfavorable view of Clinton. Trump has long had rock-bottom favorability ratings, but only recently has Clinton's matched his:

unfav

The Post-ABC poll found little change from before and after the FBI made its email announcement. On Friday and Saturday, voters split 46 percent for Trump and 45 percent for Clinton, which is basically statistically unchanged from Wednesday and Thursday, when voters supported Clinton 47 percent and Trump 44 percent.

One demographic coming home for Trump: White men. That same poll shows Trump is doing three points better than Mitt Romney did with the group in 2012. Trump is losing support among college-educated white men, but he's doing WAY better than Romney with non-college educated white men.

Get smart on how to vote

It turns out 14 states have new laws that could make it more difficult to vote this year. Use The Post’s voting rights graphic to find out how to register, when you can vote and what you need to bring along when you go to the polls.

Today, here's a map of states that allow write-in candidates (you know, in case you're not happy either choices. Quite a few GOP Senators will be joining you.)

write-ins


Oh, and I almost forgot (because honestly, this election is weird enough). Happy Halloween!

PumpkinDance

 
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