Holy late-October surprise. Here's what we know about the FBI and Hillary Clinton's emails: Eleven days before the election, the FBI is looking into new evidence to see whether it has any relevance to Clinton's use of a private email server while she was secretary of state. This comes almost four months after FBI Director James B. …
 
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Holy late-October surprise. Here's what we know about the FBI and Hillary Clinton's emails:

chris

  • The FBI said Friday it decided to take “appropriate investigative steps” after it found “numerous” emails related to Clinton while investigating former New York representative Anthony Weiner and his sexting habit. (Because, of course, the 2016 presidential election would, in some way, be related to a sexting scandal).
  • About that sexting scandal: Weiner has been caught several times sexting with a woman who is not his wife. (He was most recently caught sexting in August while his toddler son was in the bed next to him.) Law enforcement had been looking into his alleged sexual online messages with a teenage girl.
  • How this ties back to Clinton: At the time, Weiner was married to Clinton's top aide, Huma Abedin. (Abedin announced in August they were separating.) Abedin was also Clinton's right-hand woman when Clinton was secretary of state. Clinton and Abedin exchanged thousands of emails that routed through Clinton's private email server and, apparently, the Weiner-Abedin home computer. And some of those messages — we still don't know how many — are the basis for Friday's news.
  • To recap: FBI — Weiner — Abedin — Clinton.
New York mayoral candidate Anthony Weiner and his wife Huma Abedin attend a news conference in New York, July 23, 2013. REUTERS/Eric Thayer/File Photo

Anthony Weiner and Huma Abedin address the media in the midst of a 2013 sexting scandal. (Eric Thayer/Reuters)

Here's what we DON'T know, as of this writing Friday afternoon:

  • Whether the new evidence could lead to a re-examination of the whole situation. Republicans say it must be serious if the FBI is going to cause a stir 11 days before the election. Right now, that's pure speculation.
  • What the FBI found, other than “the existence of emails that appear to be pertinent to the Clinton investigation.”
  • Whether this probe has any potential at all to change, in any way, the FBI's determination that Clinton should not be charged with a crime.
  • How long this probe will last. Could be a day or two, could be weeks. We have no idea.

But the longer this lasts, the worse it is for Clinton.

Hillary Clinton on her campaign plane earlier Friday. (Melina Mara/The Washington Post)

For three big reasons, says Fix Boss Chris Cillizza:

1) Undecided voters will be reminded of what they don't like about Clinton, which polls consistently show is her perceived lack of honesty and trustworthiness.

2) The Democratic base will also be reminded of some of the reasons they don't love Clinton. That could de-energize them from turning out at the polls.

3) The Republican base will ALSO be reminded of why they don't like Clinton. Which could energize them, a boost they badly need. “Everything the GOP base doesn't like (or trust) about the Clintons is on display in this FBI investigation,” Cillizza writes. “If they needed a reason to turn out and vote against her, they now have one.”

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This is great news for down-ballot Republicans

U.S. House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI) participates in an interview at the Economic Club of Washington in Washington, U.S., September 28, 2016. REUTERS/Gary Cameron

Cue happy photo of House Speaker Paul D. Ryan (R-Wis.) (Gary Cameron/Reuters)

At a time when things really haven't been going their way, no less. Here are three reasons:

1) House and Senate Republicans have spent this whole campaign on the hook for their nominee. But now they can say that at least Donald Trump hasn't been caught up in FBI investigations twice now in an election year.

Johnson

2) It doesn't help Democrats that these emails were uncovered in relation to Weiner, which broadens the story to a wider audience by making it more surreal and, frankly, just plain odd.

3) Even if this comes to nothing and Clinton is elected president Nov. 8, Hill Republicans plan to use the mere existence of Friday's bombshell to legitimize their own planned “years"-long investigations into Clinton's emails in the next Congress.

What's the Clinton camp saying about all this?

Robby Mook, campaign manager for Hillary Clinton, talks to the media, Friday, in a campaign plane. (Melina Mara/The Washington Post)

Well, they're not happy. Actually, they sound kind of angry. Clinton Campaign Chair John Podesta sent out a remarkable statement that suggests the FBI is responding to political pressure from Republicans — and serving notice that Republicans won't be the only ones applying political pressure to the FBI, writes The Fix's Aaron Blake.

Podesta: “It is extraordinary that we would see something like this just 11 days out from a presidential election. The director owes it to the American people to immediately provide the full details of what he is now examining. We are confident this will not produce any conclusions different from the one the FBI reached in July.”

What effect will this have on the polls?

Unclear. The Fix's Philip Bump points out that 18 million people have already voted; a substantial number when you consider that's 14 percent of all the votes cast in 2012.

And given we don't know what's really going on with Clinton and the FBI and emails, Bump adds it's hard to say what impact this will have on everyone else who has yet to vote. After Comey announced in July there wasn't evidence to charge Clinton with a crime, Clinton's poll numbers didn't move.

(Philip Bump / The Washington Post)

(Philip Bump / The Washington Post)

Maybe people weren't paying attention back then. But maybe this just won't move numbers. A July Washington Post-ABC News poll found 56 percent of voters didn't agree with the FBI's recommendation not to charge Clinton, AND that a majority also said the outcome wouldn't change their vote.

The bottom line of Friday's news is probably this: We don't know how badly Clinton is hurt by this — but we do know that the FBI deciding to probe her emails 11 days before the election isn't good news for Team Clinton.

 
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