Dear Reader, In 1950, brilliant mathematician John Nash wrote a two-page paper that changed the field of economics forever. He proposed that every multiplayer game has an optimal state, an equilibrium. This “Nash equilibrium” is reached when each player, considering their opponent’s choices, sees no reason to change their strategy. As a result, everyone wins. The bad news: This equilibrium that so many of today’s economists hang their hopes and models on actually doesn’t exist. The problem is that economists assume human beings are perfectly rational and consistent, which is what makes equilibrium possible. But that is not what experience tells us. We are quite irrational and driven by emotion, as anyone who deals with the markets on a daily basis knows. So how can we have equilibrium? We can’t. Unfortunately, this false belief in equilibrium is being held by some of the most powerful and influential people on the planet, mostly those in governments and central banks. They truly think they can twist some knobs on their models like the Great Wizard of Oz, and things will get magically better in real life, for real people. If we just had better monetary or fiscal policy, if the government just taxed the right people and distributed the money correctly, everyone would be so much better off. And in their minds, their complex models and theories will doubtlessly lead to their desired political conclusions. As a result of this misconception, the actions based on these flawed models and theories are the most destructive forces in the global economy today. They are threatening to upend and maybe destroy the social and economic order in the US and most of the developed world. I call them “the seven deadly economic sins.” This week, I’m inviting you to follow me down this particular rabbit hole. Let’s get together and look at the root causes of the coming global economic crisis. To get you the best research there is, I’ve enrolled six of my good friends, each of them a leading expert on economics, finance, or geopolitics. All of them are regular contributors to my research service, Over My Shoulder, and I consider myself lucky to be able to share their excellent, client-only research with all Mauldin Economics readers from October 14–21. Throughout the next week, they will give us their take on the seven deadly economic sins in time-saving, short video clips. Click here to see the full guest list and schedule for “7 Deadly Economic Sins” Week. Make sure you don’t miss any of the emails and videos, starting on Monday. They could make the difference between being hit by the crisis unawares and facing it calmly and well prepared. Your ignorance is never bliss analyst, John Mauldin Co-Founder
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