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| Monday, July 25, 2022 |
| The crack of pads, the trill of a whistle, the clickety-clack of Fantasy analysts manically updating their rankings … those are the sweet, sweet sounds of training camp, and they're in the air once again this week. The Rams, Bills and Raiders reported to camp last week and by Tuesday, every team will be fully accounted for … plus or minus a few holdouts, naturally. |
| The start of training camp marks the official start of Fantasy Football Draft Prep season for me, so starting today, you can expect to see this FFT Newsletter in your inbox every Monday through Friday morning from now until the end of the NFL season, more or less. That'll obviously include catching up on the latest news you need to know from around the league's camps, but before we get there, I'm going to spend the next few days going through each team's biggest question as they head into camp. |
Today, we're going through all 16 AFC teams, and Adam Aizer and I talked about three of the biggest questions regarding Jets rookie Bryce Hall, the Chiefs wide receivers, and the Ravens offense on Monday's episode of Fantasy Football Today in 5, which you can check out here. Tomorrow, we'll go through each NFC team, and then Wednesday we'll take a look at all of the injuries we're keeping an eye on to open training camp, with big names like Chris Godwin, J.K. Dobbins and more in question for not just the start of camp but potentially Week 1. |
| Things are about to get wild as we get into the heart of Draft Prep season. Here's where it starts. |
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| AFC Biggest Questions |
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| Ravens – Is J.K. Dobbins ready for superstardom? |
| Dobbins sure looked like it down the stretch as a rookie when he rushed for seven touchdowns over the final six games, but that was back in 2020. There's plenty of upside in an offense that ranked first and seventh in scoring in consecutive seasons before struggling with injuries a year ago, but Dobbins' status for Week 1 is more of a question than we initially thought. He may still be ready to go for the start of the season, but don't be surprised if he's worked in relatively slowly alongside Gus Edwards and potentially Mike Davis. You might need to be very patient with Dobbins if you snag him as an RB2. |
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| Bills – Is J.K. Dobbins ready for superstardom? |
| Stefon Diggs has established himself as a high-end WR1, but the Bills haven't really had another must-start player emerge among the rest of the skill positions. Devin Singletary was one down the stretch last season, but the decision to draft James Cook in the second round clouds both players' outlooks; the Bills have been below average in Fantasy points for running backs every season of Josh Allen's career, so there probably isn't room for both to thrive. Gabriel Davis has flashed in a big way in limited opportunities -- including five touchdowns in two playoff games last season -- but hasn't locked down a consistent role. If you're betting on anyone, he's the guy. |
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| Bengals – Do they pivot to a pass-first offense? |
| Joe Burrow is being taken as the No. 4 QB in drafts as of publication, which is pretty optimistic after he finished as QB8 in points per game last season. Of course, expecting improvement from a young, talented QB isn't unreasonable, but the Bengals probably need to pass more for Burrow to make a leap to that tier given his limited utility as a runner. They did throw more down the stretch, but Burrow averaged 35.5 pass attempts per game in four playoff games, which would still be pretty middling. The weapons are certainly in place, but Burrow could disappoint Fantasy players unless this becomes a much more aggressive offense overall. |
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| Browns – Will Deshaun Watson be suspended? |
| I'm operating under the assumption Watson will face some sort of suspension, and this is a very different team with Watson at QB vs. Jacoby Brissett. Amari Cooper has top-10 WR upside with Watson, but you can't draft him that high until we know how much Watson is going to play, if at all. Chubb seems like the safest bet here, though even his upside is diminished if the Browns' offense is held back by Brissett. In all honesty, this might just be an offense I avoid until we have some clarity -- and given that we'll likely see a protracted battle over whatever suspension is eventually handed down one way or the other, we very well may not have that clarity until the season starts. |
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| Broncos – Just how good can this offense be? |
| There are going to be a lot of expectations for this offense, especially with young guys like Javonte Williams and Jerry Jeudy. Both have significant upside but also significant competition for touches. Williams has to contend with the returning Melvin Gordon, who actually had the same number of carries as Williams in one fewer game, while Jeudy must compete with both Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick, not to mention Albert Okwuegbunam . If Wilson turns this into a top-five offense, there should be enough points to go around, and both Jeudy and Williams have top-12 upside. If the offense takes some time to gel with a new QB and coaching staff, there could be some growing pains. We'll need to keep an eye on how the hierarchy at RB and WR look in camp. |
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| Texans – Will anyone but Brandin Cooks step up? |
| Cooks has been perpetually underrated in Fantasy circles for most of his career, but nobody else on this offense had more than 613 total yards last season. There's obviously room for someone else to be a contributor alongside Cooks, but Nico Collins didn't make much of an impact as a rookie, while second-round pick John Metchie III is now expected to miss the season following a cancer diagnosis. Rookie RB Dameon Pierce might be the only other Texans player drafted in most leagues if we get good reports out of camp, though even he may end up splitting carries with Marlon Mack in a bad offense. |
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| Colts – Is there anyone who matters besides Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman? |
| Taylor is going to be the focal point of this offense and Pittman figures to be the clear-cut No. 1 option in the passing game. Last season, they were really the only players who mattered for Fantasy -- Nyheim Hines was third on the team with 586 yards from scrimmage in 17 games. Hines has been getting talked up in the offseason and rookie second-rounder Alec Pierce steps onto a bare depth chart, but neither needs to be drafted inside of the top-100 in most leagues unless we get unexpectedly positive reports out of camp. |
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| Jaguars – Did they add enough help? |
| The Jaguars spent a lot of money on their offense in free agency, signing Brandon Scherff, Christian Kirk, Evan Engram, and Zay Jones to big deals, all but Engram's being multi-year contracts. But when you take a step back and look at the playmakers on this offense, it still looks pretty underwhelming. Maybe Travis Etienne will be an impact player coming off his broken foot, or maybe James Robinson will recover from his Achilles injury and return to form quickly, but if not, you've got Kirk and Marvin Jones as the top pass-catchers for an unproven QB, which is pretty hard to get excited about. This offense could be pretty underwhelming yet again unless Lawrence makes a leap. |
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| Chiefs – How do they replace Tyreek Hill? |
| I mean, we already know this: They're replacing him with a combination of JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and second-rounder Skyy Moore. Of course, it remains to be seen whether that group can actually help replace what Hill brought to the offense. In theory, Mecole Hardman 's speed could be a factor, but he's never really shown the upside to step into Hill's shoes when given the opportunity. It's possible that this deeper receiving corps makes up for Hill's singular ability to break down defenses, but I'm expecting the offense as a whole to take a step back collectively without him. How much of one remains to be seen, obviously, though at the very least, this will likely be a less vertically aggressive offense unless MVS can prove to be a much more consistent contributor than he ever was in Green Bay. There's significant upside here for Fantasy, but it's all ambiguous until we get some camp reports. |
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| Raiders– How does Davante Adams fare without Aaron Rodgers? |
| Derek Carr is a fine quarterback, but I don't think I'm telling any tales out of school when I say he's no Aaron Rodgers. However, the Raiders were more pass-heavy than the Packers last season, and I don't think that's going to change with the addition of Adams. So, if Adams remains a 30% target share guy, there's still WR1 upside, even if the quality of those targets doesn't compare. He's my WR2 overall. |
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| Chargers – Is there any breakout potential here? |
| Between Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, and Mike Williams, there wasn't much room for anyone else in this offense to make much of an impact; no other player had even 600 total yards. This is one of the best offenses in the league, and you always want as much exposure to an offense like this as possible, but the touches are so concentrated between those three that you're going to have to be pretty patient if you are chasing upside with someone like Joshua Palmer, Gerald Everett, or Isaiah Spiller. |
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| Dolphins – Can Tua get the most out of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle? |
| Waddle was one of the most pleasant surprises of last season and ended up a perfect fit for an RPO-heavy offense. Mike McDaniel's offense should scheme up a lot of similar looks for Waddle, but they're also going to have to find ways for Hill to get involved. That's a lot of speed from the WR group, and Mike Gesicki is one of the quicker TEs in the league, too. But Tagovailoa is unproven as a deep passer, and if he can't make that a big part of his game, it could limit the offense's appeal -- and Hill's especially. I'm still drafting Hill as a top-12 guy and Waddle as a No. 2 WR, but there's no guarantee they both hit here. Expect a lot of scrutiny on Tua's deep ball in camp, though that's one question we can't really answer until we see this offense in action against real opponents. |
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| Patriots – Can Damien Harris remain the go-to back? |
| Harris ended up RB19 in PPR points per game last season, but he has a pretty narrow path to Fantasy success in any given week: If he finds the end zone, he'll be a good start; if not, he'll be a bust. Luckily, he found the end zone in all but five games last season, so he was useful more often than not. Can you bet on that repeating? The bigger concern is probably whether he can continue to fend off Rhamondre Stevenson, who shows a bit more three-down viability -- and more Fantasy upside as a result. Harris is the back to roster if you have to have one of them, but Stevenson could make a charge up draft boards if we get positive reports out of camp about his role. |
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| Jets – Can Zach Wilson take a big step forward? |
| Between Garrett Wilson, Elijah Moore, and Corey Davis at WR and Breece Hall and Michael Carter at RB, the Jets have a seemingly solid foundation at the skill positions. Sure, they probably need some more seasoning, but as far as young cores go, it's a good one. But Wilson was outplayed as a rookie by journeymen like Mike White, Josh Johnson, and Joe Flacco, which is a pretty bad sign. All indications are the Jets still believe in the 23-year-old, but based on what we saw as a rookie, he's not ready to elevate this offense. Proceed with caution. |
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| Steelers – How does the QB switch change the offense? |
| Ben Roethlisberger's unwillingness to hang on to the ball and let plays develop led to some pretty ugly play -- he averaged 6.2 yards per attempt over the past two seasons -- but it also led to some pretty huge target numbers for Diontae Johnson and Najee Harris. It's not unreasonable to think the combination of Trubisky and Pickett might make the Steelers offense more functional as a whole, but the targets may be distributed in a way that makes it harder for those two, in particular, to stand out. We'll be watching for reports of how the Steelers offense is coming together regardless of who the QB is. |
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| Titans – Just how big a risk is Derrick Henry? |
| There are actually plenty of questions about this offense heading into camp -- including surrounding first-round pick Treylon Burks' conditioning and Robert Woods' recovery from a torn ACL as they try to replace A.J. Brown . However, if Henry is healthy, we know he's going to be the focal point here. Henry's size and strength was supposed to make him an outlier at a position that increasingly devalues players in their late 20s, and he was on pace for another elite Fantasy season through the first half of last season. However, suddenly he's 28 years old and coming off a broken foot that cost him nearly three months of action. Henry's lack of pass catching production means he typically needs consistent carry totals in the 20-30 range, so any talk of trying to limit his workload could prove costly for his appeal. |
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