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Tuesday, April 30, 2024
The first month of the season is almost finished, and while months are ultimately just arbitrary markers of time in a long baseball season, it's still a natural point to stop and take stock of things. And that's just what I did on Monday, as I wrote about the biggest rankings risers at every position for CBSSports.com. 
Scott White has been writing a weekly Rankings Movers column, and he highlighted Josh Naylor's rise in his most recent edition last week, and I'm in full agreement there. Naylor is my biggest rankings riser at the first base position, jumping from the No. 10 spot to No. 7. That might not seem like a huge rise, but I was already higher on Naylor than the consensus, and it represents about a five-round jump from where Naylor was being drafted before the season. So, it's a bigger leap than you think. 
Before we get to the rest of today's newsletter, here are my biggest rankings risers and fallers among hitters and then pitchers through the first month of the season:
Ryan Jeffers, C, Twins 
Preseason: C22 - Now: C14
Josh Naylor, 1B, Guardians
Preseason: 1B10 - Now: 1B7
Jordan Westburg, 2B, Orioles
Preseason: 2B36 - Now: 2B15
Elly De La Cruz, SS, Reds 
Preseason: 3B5 - Now: 3B2
C.J. Abrams, SS, Nationals
Preseason: SS9 - Now: SS7
Mike Trout, OF, Angels
Preseason: OF16 - Now: OF10
Tyler O'Neill, OF, Red Sox
Preseason: OF42 - Now: OF32
Colton Cowser, OF, Orioles
Preseason: OF152 - Now: OF39 
Jared Jones, SP, Pirates
Preseason: SP21 – Now: SP70
Mackenzie Gore, SP, Nationals
Preseason: SP83 – Now: SP49
Tanner Houck, SP, Red SoxPreseason: SP72 – Now: SP56
Ranger Suarez, SP, Phillies
Preseason: SP104 – Now: SP58
Edward Cabrera, SP, Marlins
Preseason: SP102 – Now: SP65
Spencer Turnbull, SP, Phillies
Preseason: SP242 – Now: SP96
Garrett Crochet, RP, White Sox 
Preseason: RP40 – Now: RP17
Mason Miller, RP, Athletics
Preseason: SP57 – Now: SP35
Click through the links to read my thoughts on each player and why they've moved up in the early going, and tomorrow, I'll have two more pieces focused on the biggest fallers in my rankings. But for now, here's what you need to know from Monday's action, beginning with another prospect call up you need to know: 
Monday's top waiver targets
Joey Loperfido got his own big write-up on CBSSports.com Sunday when it was announced that the Astros were calling him up, and then we found out about an almost-as-interesting hitter promotion from the NL side of things Monday, so we'll start this segment off there, with the looming addition of Jordan Beck to the Rockies roster. 
And, on the one hand, the fact that he's going to play for the Rockies should be reason enough for Fantasy players to take notice.  With Coors Field at his back for half his games, Beck doesn't even need to be all that good to matter for Fantasy – Charlie Blackmon hit .279/.363/.440 last season with a 90-run pace over 150 games, and nobody really thinks he's any good at this point.
And Beck might be good! He was a top-100 prospect in MLB.com's preseason top-100 prospect rankings, and was hitting .307/.405/.594 in his first 25 games at Triple-A, with five homers and five steals. We have a fairly limited sample size from Beck as a professional, but he hit 25 homers and stole 20 bases as a 22-year-old last season, and it's not too hard to see a Nolan Jones-circa-2023 outcome here if everything goes right.
But there's that other hand we've been hiding, and that's that … it's the Rockies! And they have a pretty notorious history of playing boring old veterans ahead of young hitters who might eventually turn into actual contributors for them. They recently recalled another promising young hitter in Hunter Goodman, who started two of his first four games, with no clear sign they're going to give him an everyday opportunity. I mean, when you've got such luminaries as Jake Cave and Alan Trejo around, you've simply gotta make sure you get them in the lineup. 
Which is to say, I don't have a ton of faith in the Rockies to get the most out of just about anyone at this point, which is the biggest reason to temper expectations for Beck's promotion. The Rockies haven't developed a must-start Fantasy player since Trevor Story, so skepticism is certainly warranted. 
That being said, if you missed out on Loperfido (who I do prefer) Sunday, Beck should be next on your waiver-wire priority list. It could go wrong – it often does when the Rockies are involved. But there's must-start Fantasy upside here, and I'm always going to want to chase that, especially in five-outfielder Rotisserie leagues. 
Clarke Schmidt, SP, Yankees (66%) – Schmidt probably isn't a start, but he continues to pitch very well for the Yankees, lowering his ERA to 3.19 with 5.1 one-run innings Monday. His command isn't great, and that's the biggest thing holding him back from being a better pitcher, and that was the issue Monday, as he walked three and failed to finish the sixth inning for the sixth start in a row. That limits his upside, perhaps, but with more than a strikeout per inning and a good offense backing him up, he could be pretty useful moving forward. And, for what it's worth, while this wasn't an overwhelmingly good start, it's fair to grade on a curve against the Orioles, of all teams. 
Jacob Young, OF, Nationals (23%) – Those of you in H2H points leagues can probably skip right over this one, but Young continues to matter for Roto leagues. He stole two more bases Monday and is now up to 12 in just 21 games on the season. He's probably not a good enough hitter to matter for much more than that, though I will point out, he has a .296 expected batting average so far, mostly because he's making plenty of contact and spraying softly hit liners all over the place. If he can just be a decent source of batting average, that speed will play. 
Carlos Santana , 1B, Twins (10%) – There's always a stretch every season where Santana reminds us that, though he's not the consistent force he once was, he can still swing it, and we're in the midst of one of those stretches right now. After going the first 10 games of the season without homering, Santana homered in three straight games Thursday, Friday, and Saturday, and then did it again Monday; in that stretch, he is 7 for 21 with five homers and 10 RBI. He had a .247/.316/.464 line with a 30-homer pace from June 1 on last season, and might have more left in the tank than we give him credit for. 
Bryse Wilson, RP, Brewers – It didn't garner much attention at the time, but Wilson made the transition to the bullpen recently and actually looks pretty solid! He went up against the Rays Monday and limited them to one run on four hits and a couple of walks over six innings while striking out six, and now has just three runs allowed in 14 innings as a starter. I don't think there's a ton of upside here – Wilson wasn't getting many strikeouts out of the bullpen – but he has maintained his velocity jump as a starter and has terrific command, so maybe he can pull a Tyler Anderson/Martin Perez and be useful against the right matchups. 
News and Notes
Gerrit Cole threw on flat ground again Saturday. Aaron Boone said the session went "really well", so hopefully we'll see him throwing off a mound soon. At this point, it sounds like he might be behind Kodai Senga's timetable, so we're probably looking more at a June return. 
Kodai Senga threw a 21-pitch live batting practice and said he thinks he'll return from the 60-day IL when first eligible on May 27.
Jhoan Duran will likely be activated on Tuesday. He's spent the season so far on the IL with an oblique strain.
Jesus Luzardo was diagnosed with a mild flexor strain in his left elbow. It's considered good news and, in fact, Luzardo played catch Monday. I'm still wary, but it sounds like this isn't too big a concern at this point. 
Zac Gallen threw a bullpen session on Monday. He left his start over the weekend with hamstring spasms but indicated he believes he'll be ready for his next start on Wednesday against the Dodgers
Paul Sewald is scheduled to throw a bullpen session Wednesday. He was previously put on hold after experiencing soreness in his oblique, but the hope is that it's just a pause and not a significant setback. 
Yu Darvish will return to start Tuesday against the Reds. He threw a few bullpens but didn't need a rehab assignment from his neck injury. I'd prefer to see him pitch before I get him back in my lineup, personally. 
Christian Yelich played catch from 120 feet Monday. He's on the IL with a lower-back strain and has no timetable to return, but he's starting to work out a bit more, so hopefully he's not too far off from returning to game action. 
Rays manager Kevin Cash said the news on Josh Lowe's MRI was "pretty good" and the team is monitoring him on a day-to-day basis. Lowe is dealing with tightness in his right hamstring after starting the season on the IL with an oblique injury. 
Salvador Perez was scratched Monday due to back tightness.
Craig Kimbrel is day-to-day with upper back tightness. Yennier Cano got four outs across the seventh and eighth innings, but didn't get the save after he was pulled in the ninth inning. Danny Coulombe got the save, but I'd still expect Cano to get the next one if Kimbrel doesn't. 
Zack Gelof, who's on the IL with a strained left oblique, is currently shut down from baseball activity and is on track to miss more than the minimum 10 days. That should generally be the expectation with any oblique injury, really. 
Tommy Edman took swings off a tee from both sides of the plate last week. He's still attempting to recover from offseason surgery on his right wrist.
Alex Verdugo was placed on the paternity list Monday and will miss between one and three days.
Orioles manager Brandon Hyde confirmed that John Means will be activated to rejoin the rotation later this week. He has mostly struggled on his rehab assignment, but I'm still interested to see what Means looks like pitching in the new dimensions of Camden Yards, seeing as how his primary struggles in the past were with keeping the ball in the yard. My expectations aren't super high, but I'm intrigued to watch him. 
Monday's standouts 
Max Fried, Braves @SEA: 6 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 7 K – When you open the season with a 7.71 ERA over your first four starts, there's really only one way to respond: By allowing just three hits over your next 15 innings of work. Fried has simplified his arsenal over the past two starts, significantly curtailing his sweeper and cutter usage, and it seems to have helped. Given his lengthy track record of success, I'm inclined to say Fried is more or less fine moving forward. 
Grayson Rodriguez, Orioles vs. NYY: 5.2 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 3 K – Rodriguez hasn't been bad, by any stretch of the imagination, so far this season, but doesn't it feel like he should be pitching better at this point? For the most part, you haven't regretted having him in your starting lineup, certainly, but he also hasn't given us much reason to assume he's making the ace leap many were hoping for. I'm still hopeful, but I wish I could be more confident it was actually coming to fruition. 
Nick Lodolo, Reds @SD: 7 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 11 K – Now, I'm not saying I feel more confident in Lodolo than Rodriguez moving forward, but that's now two double-digit strikeout efforts Lodolo has given us so far this season; Rodriguez, by contrast, has no double-digit strikeout games dating back to last season. Lodolo's curveball has been as good as ever, but his changeup has been the real standout, entering the start with a 58.3% whiff rate and generating four more on 10 swings Monday night. There are still questions about Lodolo's ability to stay healthy and pitch effectively in that bandbox stadium in Cincy, but I don't see a good case against keeping him outside of my top-40 starting pitchers at this point. I'm going to make that change when I update my rankings this week. 
Bryce Miller, Mariners vs. ATL: 7 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 10 K – Miller didn't have his splitter working for him today, and yet he still dominated the Braves of all teams, with his four-seamer racking up a massive 15 whiffs. His underlying numbers don't quite support his hot start – he has a 2.04 ER compared to a 3.83 FIP and 3.51 xFIP – but if you expect him to pitch more to a mid-3.00s ERA with better than a strikeout per inning, I don't think you'll be disappointed. 
Ryan Pepiot, Rays @MIL: 6 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 7 K – I can't really make sense of Pepiot right now. He entered the start with a 39% whiff rate on his four-seam fastball for the season, and then got nine more whiffs on 17 swings with it, pushing him over a 40% whiff rate for the season. Last season, only relievers managed a whiff rate better than 35% on their four-seam fastballs, and Jacob deGrom was the only starter even above 33%, so I'm going to go ahead and assume there's some regression coming here. Can Pepiot make up for that with more whiffs from his secondaries? It's certainly possible, but this is one early-season breakout I am viewing as a sell-high candidate, though admittedly, my expectations aren't that different for him and Miller. 
Garrett Crochet, White Sox vs. MIN: 5 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 7 K – I actually think this was a pretty promising start for Crochet, despite not being his best. He clearly didn't have his slider today, as he threw it just five times, and yet he still found a way to be effective, in part by leaning on his changeup and cutter more. I still think the best version of Crochet is likely to feature a ton of whiffs from a heavy dose of sliders, but this was proof of concept that he can find other ways to succeed. There's still so much upside here that there's no way I could really consider dropping Crochet, despite the complaints I'm hearing from many of you. 
Luis Severino, Mets vs. CHC: 8 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 5 K – This is one where I'm worried I'm holding the pitcher Severino used to be against the guy he is now, and maybe that's causing me to miss something, because I'll admit, I remain very underwhelmed by what we're seeing so far. When Severino was at his best, he rode an elite slider and fastball combination to stardom, throwing them around 85% of the time, with just a changeup to complement them occasionally. Now? He's got a cutter, sweeper, changeup, and sinker to go along with it and none of the pitches is really generating many whiffs right now. He's getting by on good control and groundball rates, and maybe that's who he is now: A Jose Berrios clone. That wouldn't be so bad! But we've never seen Severino succeed like this before, and it makes me think it isn't sustainable.  
Cristopher Sanchez , Phillies @LAA: 6 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 3 K – Sanchez's breakthrough last season came thanks in large part to dramatically improved command, and when he showed up to spring throwing harder this season, he said he could dial back his velocity if it affected his command. And it might be time to try. Sanchez only walked two in this one, but he threw his changeup in the strike zone just 7% of the time, with his slider going into the zone just 33% of the time. His walk rate is up to 9.8% from 4.0% last season, and while he's still getting a bunch of ground balls and decent strikeouts, everything feels pretty precarious here. I'm not ready to drop Sanchez outright just yet, but he needs to show us something here in the next start or two. 
 
 
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