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| Monday, August 29, 2022 |
| I'm starting to feel really good about the Dolphins offense, and I'm starting to get really worried about Cam Akers' health. Those were my two big takeaways from this weekend, as the Dolphins offense led my preseason biggest winners column while Akers was the focus of the start of my preseason losers column. |
| The Dolphins offense has pretty much been as advertised this preseason, averaging 29.0 points per game, with Tua Tagovailoa going 12 for 15 for 179 yards – and even third-stringer Skylar Thompson putting up some pretty impressive numbers . That is seemingly a sign that Mike McDaniels' offensive system might have some juice. That mirrors what we've seen from Kyle Shanahan's offense in San Francisco, where they've managed to make a consistently productive running game out of late-rounders while making whichever middling quarterback is under center at a given look better than they have any right to. |
| The best thing about Miami's offense? How cheap everyone is. Tyreek Hill's ADP is still just 21.25 over the past week at NFC, while Jaylen Waddle's has dropped to 39.68 as he deals with a leg injury he should be past by Week 1. Chase Edmonds is the most expensive running back at a very reasonable 79.35, while Tagovailoa himself is just 142.45; no other player is being drafted inside of the top 150 on average. This offense doesn't have to be great for every single one of those players to be worth drafting at their current costs, but if this offense really starts to hum, there could be values at every spot. It's just the preseason, but it's been impressive. |
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| As for Akers, he still isn't able to run at full speed despite his vague injury being described as a minor one weeks ago. Akers has enough production concerns after struggling to make plays coming back from his Achilles injury last postseason, and now he's heading into prep for Week 1 having missed multiple weeks of preseason, with no real sense of when he'll be healthy. That worries me. |
| That's not to say the Dolphins offense will be world-beaters or that Akers is going to be a bust. It's just to say that, as the preseason wraps up, the Dolphins offense has done what I wanted to see it do, while Akers hasn't. |
| You can read more about my winners and losers from Preseason Week 3 in the rest of today's newsletter, and this weekend was the last chance any of these players had to make an impression on us before Week 1. Rosters have to be cut down to 53 players by the end of Tuesday, so we'll know more about some fringe guys and injured players, who might be placed on IR to free up a roster spot, but otherwise, we're not getting any new information until Week 1. |
| And that's fine. Most drafts are still to come, so you won't hear me complaining about there being fewer opportunities for injuries. Before we get to the rest of the winners and losers, we're going to go through the injuries and news you need to know about coming out of the weekend, so let's get to that first, because there's some big stuff there. |
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| Injuries, news and notes |
| The biggest NFL news of the weekend was that Commanders running back Brian Robinson is in the hospital after being shot multiple times. Thankfully, Robinson is reportedly in stable condition and dealing with non life threatening injuries to his lower body. |
| Robinson has been one of the stories of the preseason, as the third-rounder had seemingly emerged as Washington's starter at running back. Obviously at this point we have no idea what Robinson's long-term prognosis is, so the most important thing is that Robinson is OK. We'll know more details in the coming days and there will be time to talk about what Washington's offense might do, but for now, I'm just keeping Robinson and his family in my thoughts. |
| Elijah Mitchell returned to practice |
| Mitchell, who missed the preseason with a hamstring injury, was back at practice Sunday. All along, he's been aiming to be ready for Week 1, and it looks like he'll be fully healthy with plenty of time ahead of that. Of course, whether Mitchell can remain healthy beyond that is the bigger question, as he struggled to stay on the field during what was otherwise a terrific rookie season. Mitchell is the lead back here and should remain so if he stays healthy, but I can envision a scenario where he gets nicked up early and starts to lose some of the trust from the coaching staff. Jeff Wilson looks like the No. 2 back, but I think I'd target Trey Sermon as the true handcuff to Mitchell if you wanted to take a late-round flier. |
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| Geno Smith is officially the Seahawks starter |
| This doesn't really come as much of a surprise, especially once Drew Lock missed a week due to COVID during camp/preseason. Smith is a fine backup who actually played decently in Russell Wilson's absence last season, but my expectations for this offense remain very low. DK Metcalf did have four touchdowns with Smith, but actually had just 21 targets to 27 for Tyler Lockett on 95 pass attempts. This figures to remain a low-volume pass attack that won't move the ball well, and I still don't want my Fantasy team to be relying on them too much. |
| Sam Darnold will miss 4-6 weeks with a high-ankle sprain |
| Baker Mayfield had already been named the starter for the Panthers, so this means PJ Walker will be the primary backup to start the season. We're certainly hoping Mayfield can help this offense take a step forward, as I wrote in my Panthers preview, it wouldn't take much to be an improvement. |
| Robert Tonyan will participate in team drills this week |
| Tonyan's is a name you probably haven't thought about much this preseason, but he's worth keeping in mind coming back from his torn ACL. I'm not expecting much from him after he had just 18 catches in eight games last season, but with Green Bay's receiver depth chart turnover, he could make an impact if he's back to full speed. |
| Logan Thomas should be ready for Week 2 "at the latest" |
| Like Tonyan, Thomas is coming back from a torn ACL and hasn't drawn much buzz in camp as a result. However, he was already activated from the PUP last week and the team seems to expect him to be available early on. Washington's receiving corps is stronger than last year with Jahan Dotson drafted and Curtis Samuel healthy, but Thomas still merits some attention as a deep TE sleeper. |
| Preseason Week 3 Winners & Losers |
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| Biggest winners |
| Rhamondre Stevenson |
| The Patriots offense looks like it could be kind of a mess, and that's a real worry for me, but I'm pretty optimistic about their running back usage this preseason. Stevenson got the start with Damien Harris resting, which indicates that Harris is still the lead back here, but Stevenson's usage was promising – he played 16 of 25 snaps with Mac Jones in the game, including plenty of passing downs, as he ran a route on nine snaps. The Patriots have been giving Stevenson and Harris passing-downs work in the preseason rather than simply using Ty Montgomery or Pierre Strong as a passing game specialist. And Montgomery left the game with an ankle injury, so those passing downs could be wide open. We don't know how serious Montgomery's injury is, but if he misses time, Stevenson could get some third-down work even if Harris is the lead back, as expected. And, obviously, Stevenson has plenty of upside if anything happens to Harris. |
| David Montgomery |
| There was some speculation among Fantasy analysts that Montgomery may cede some playing time to Khalil Herbert with the new Bears' coaching staff in place, but we saw no signs of that in his first preseason action of the season. Montgomery played 20 of 22 snaps with Justin Fields , with Khalil Herbert coming in for just two passing downs – Montgomery ran eight routes of his own. Maybe that was just to get Montgomery as many reps as possible, but I'm still operating under the assumption that Montgomery is going to be playing roughly 70% or more of the snaps nearly every week, as he did last season. He might not be exciting, but Montgomery should benefit from a more cohesive Bears offense as a whole and has significant volume on his side. |
| Leonard Fournette |
| Tom Brady played 11 snaps Saturday and Fournette was right there alongside him for every one, running routes on every dropback. Maybe Rachaad White can carve out a role as the third-down back, but based on what we saw Sunday, he isn't there yet. In this offense, Fournette has significant touchdown potential every week and had 69 catches in 14 games a year ago. A similar role should be waiting for him, and he's a viable RB1 who won't cost much. |
| Jeff Wilson |
| Trey Lance played 11 snaps on the first two drives Thursday and Wilson was right there alongside him for every one. Elijah Mitchell is expected back for Week 1 after missing the preseason with a hamstring injury, but it seems we now know who will be the 49ers No. 2 back. Trey Sermon came on in the third drive alongside Lance, so I think we can assume that is the hierarchy for now, with rookie Tyrion Davis-Price perhaps a bit behind. I think I would rather have Sermon than Wilson because I like his chances of having an early-down role if something were to happen to Mitchell, but Wilson is definitely a viable late-round sleeper pick who should have a third-down role early on too. |
| Tyler Allgeier |
| With Cordarrelle Patterson and Damien Williams sitting out, Allgeier got the start, though Caleb Huntley and Qadree Ollison also mixed in early on, so there's still some ambiguity here. However, Allgeier continued to impress, as he has all preseason, scoring two touchdowns. There is some ambiguity here, because Caleb Huntley and Qadree Ollison both played fairly early on, so there's not necessarily a guarantee he's the No. 3 here, but that's the bet I'm making. Williams and Patterson will be the top options early on, so don't plan on using Allgeier in Week 1, but he should have a path to carve out a role pretty quickly, and that makes him worth drafting late. |
| Malik Willis |
| Willis might still have a lot of work to do to be an NFL-caliber quarterback, but it's hard to make sense of a guy with his tools falling as far as he did in the draft. Look, there aren't many quarterbacks in the NFL who can do this, even in the preseason. He had that 50-yard run in preseason action along with a nifty side-arm throw around a defender that Treylon Burks turned into a touchdown, and those were the skills that made him such a dynamic player in college. Ryan Tannehill is the unquestioned starter here, but Willis gives me Jalen Hurts vibes, in that I could absolutely see him coming on late in the season as an injury replacement and making an impact for Fantasy. In 2QB leagues, he's one of the more high-upside stashes around. |
| Mo Alie-Cox |
| Alie-Cox hasn't done much more than flash occasionally across four NFL seasons, but it was interesting to see him play every snap with Matt Ryan in the preseason finale. He's typically been used in multi-TE rotations, however the Colts have had a lot of turnover over the past few seasons and he might be the only guy they trust alongside Kylen Granson and rookie Jelani Woods. I'm still not sure Alie-Cox needs to be drafted in most leagues, but I'm definitely going to keep an eye on him in Week 1 to see if he's used in a way that could lead to valuable production. |
| Tyler Johnson |
| Given that Chris Godwin and Russell Gage were both out, I'm not sure how much it matters that Johnson played every snap with Tom Brady, but it's worth noting, at the very least. Johnson was a productive receiver in college who broke out at a young age and likely would've been better than a fifth-round pick if not for some mediocre testing numbers. He hasn't done a ton in his first two seasons, but he could fit in as a poor man's Godwin if something were to happen to set Godwin back from making a Week 1 debut. This might matter more for DFS, but I'll be keeping an eye out on practice reports for Godwin and Gage over the next week and a half. |
| Biggest losers |
| Patriots offense |
| There have been weird vibes around the Patriots offense since minicamps, when Bill Belichick refused to name an offensive coordinator following the departure of Josh McDaniels. In training camp, it became clear Matt Patricia and Joe Judge would be in charge of the offense, and that isn't a duo that inspires a ton of confidence, personally – the fact that Patricia is both coaching the offensive line and seemingly calling plays doesn't help. And seeing Mac Jones visibly frustrated while going 9 for 13 for 71 yards and one egregiously bad pick against a Raiders team resting most of their starters definitely didn't help. History tells us not to bet against Bill Belichick, but the steady drumbeat out of camp is that this offense has been a problem, and we didn't see much from them in the exhibition games to refute that. I'm worried. |
| Clarity in the Chargers backfield |
| Given the usage so far in camp and the preseason, I'd pretty much moved Joshua Kelley into the Chargers No. 2 RB spot behind Austin Ekeler. However, Week 3 saw Larry Rountree get the start and played more snaps with the "first-team" offense (led by Chase Daniel), with Kelly serving as more of a clear backup. That makes knowing who Ekeler's backup is much trickier, and I'm assuming if something were to happen to Ekeler, this would probably be a pretty messy situation – rookie Isaiah Spiller also looms as a potential option, though he's probably a clear RB4 on the depth chart right now. Given the lack of clarity, I think Spiller is probably the best bet for a late-round flier in this offense in the hopes he can emerge as a clear No. 2, but you might be best off avoiding this one. |
| Garrett Wilson |
| The Jets invested quite a lot in Wilson, the No. 10 pick in this year's draft, but it looks like they aren't going to force him into the starting lineup just yet. Though all reports out of camp have been pretty positive, Wilson was pretty much used as a backup in Sunday's preseason finale, only playing with the starters when Corey Davis came off the field, per Pro Football Focus. Elijah Moore and Braxton Berrios are seemingly ahead of him on the depth chart, and that has seemingly been a consistent feature of the offense so far. That doesn't mean you can't or shouldn't draft Wilson in redraft formats, but understand you'll need to be patient in the early going. Don't panic if he doesn't have much of a Week 1 role, you're drafting him for long-term upside. |
| James Cook |
| Cook got the start Friday, but that was with the second-team offense – and it was with Zack Moss inactive. Does that mean Cook is the No. 3 running back? Potentially, though it's still possible that this is a scenario where Cook is more of a third-down back and Moss is the actual backup to Singletary. Either way, talk out of camp suggests all three should be active for game days, and with Singletary pretty clearly the lead back, it's going to be tough for Cook to make much of an impact early on. His pass-catching skills especially could make him stand out in this backfield, but he's another guy you probably need to be patient with given his likely early-season role. |
| Mike Gesicki |
| In three drives with Tagovailoa, Gesicki was actually second among the Dolphins tight ends in snaps. He did run the most routes, but this was actually a three-man rotation with Durham Smythe and Cethan Carter. Gesicki has talked this preseason about having to basically learn a new position, as the Dolphins are asking him to be more of a traditional tight end after he was used almost exclusively as a receiver last season, and we've seen that in games -- he has lined up as an in-line tight end 24 times compared to 14 in the slot, per PFF, after playing 85% of his snaps either in the slot or out wide last season. There are going to be growing pains here with Gesicki, and he might not get enough opportunities to be much more than a touchdown-or-bust TE. |
| Noah Fant |
| Over the Seahawks' first five drives, no tight end ran a route on more than 50% of the dropbacks, as Fant continues to rotate with Will Dissly and Colby Parkinson. That has been a trend throughout the preseason, and it makes it awfully tough to draft Fant even as a late-round sleeper. I still think he has very enticing skills for Fantasy, but the role just doesn't look like it's going to be there in what figures to be a pretty low-volume (not to mention bad) passing attack. In your standard 12-team league with no TE premium scoring, Fant is probably best left for waivers at this point. |
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