We knew to expect the unexpected in the first round of the NFL Draft, but even having steeled myself with that knowledge, there were some stunners last night. I mean, I'm still not sure I quite believe that the Lions actually took Jahmyr Gibbs with the No. 12 pick, but every time I go back and look, that's what it says. 

Yep, that actually happened, and on one level, it makes perfect sense. Gibbs is a potentially devastating weapon on a team with an offensive line that opens huge holes and in an offense that does a good job of getting the ball in space to their weapons. As Jacob Gibbs (no relation!) wrote last night, the former Alabama back could be an incredibly valuable Fantasy player in the Lions offense. 

But they've gotta trade D'Andre Swift for that to happen. I mean … they've gotta trade Swift, right? I wrote about the five best landing spots for Swift in trade last night, but until that trade actually happens, Swift is clearly one of the biggest losers of the night. And there's a worst-case scenario here where the Lions go into the season with Gibbs, Swift, and David Montgomery, creating a total mess for Fantasy. Let's hope they come to their senses and do the right thing.

In today's newsletter, I've got some of the other big winners and losers from the first round of the NFL Draft. But before we get there, familiarize yourself with every Fantasy-relevant pick from the first round with breakdowns of each prospect and their fit for their new teams from the Fantasy Football Today team:

1. Panthers select Alabama QB Bryce Young

2. Texans select Ohio State QB C.J. Stroud

4. Colts select Florida QB Anthony Richardson

8. Falcons select Texas RB Bijan Robinson

12. Lions select Alabama RB Jahmyr Gibbs

20. Seahawks select Ohio State WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba

21. Chargers select TCU WR Quentin Johnston

22. Ravens select Boston College WR Zay Flowers

23. Vikings select USC WR Jordan Addison

25. Bills select Utah TE Dalton Kincaid

Jackson got his long-term contract from the Ravens finalized Thursday, a deal that will reportedly pay him $185 million guaranteed and can be worth up to $260 million. And then the Ravens got him some more help by picking Boston College wide receiver Zay Flowers with the No. 22 overall pick. Add in the signing of Odell Beckham last week, and the Ravens suddenly have a pretty interesting receiving corps for new offensive coordinator Todd Monken to work with. That includes Rashod Bateman, Nelson Agholor, Mark Andrews, and Isaiah Likely. I didn't have either Bateman or Beckham as top-40 wide receivers for Fantasy before the addition of Flowers, and I certainly won't move any of them up. But this might be the best group of receivers Jackson has ever played with, and he still has the potential to challenge for the top spot at the QB position in Fantasy. I'm going to draft him a ton where I don't take one of Patrick Mahomes , Josh Allen, or Jalen Hurts in the first two rounds. 

Of the five running backs taken as top-10 picks over the past decade, Christian McCaffrey is the only one not to finish as a top-12 RB in PPR scoring on a per-game basis – he was RB14 in 2017, at 14.3. Being drafted in the top 10 as a running back is not necessarily a guarantee you'll be a dominant Fantasy option, but … you've gotta like Robinson's chances! He's a dynamic player who can run between the tackles or split out wide, something Robinson said the Falcons talked to him about in pre-draft visits. He'll be the lead back on arguably the most run-heavy offense in the league, and I'll bet on the Falcons throwing more to their backs in 2023 than they did in 2022, when they combined for just 64 targets. Robinson might get that many on his own, in addition to probably 250 carries on a very good running team. He's a borderline first-rounder (Dave Richard will be diving deeper into his Fantasy stock at CBSSports.com on Friday) and a definite top-10 RB. 

There's still a whole six rounds left, but Pollard escaped the first and most important without the Cowboys adding serious competition. I'd bet on them adding someone on Day 2, but it likely will be someone who serves as a complement, rather than a threat, to his status as the top back here. I've got Pollard as a top-six back, just ahead of Robinson, and I'd be surprised if anything happened Friday to change that. 

Pittman's struggles last season had everything to do with the poor QB play in Indianapolis, and while Richardson is probably going to have his own growing pains, he certainly raises the ceiling for this offense. Pittman's average depth of target collapsed from 9.7 to 6.9 yards in 2022, and I don't think that's going to be an issue with Richardson – 47% of his passes traveled at least 10 yards down the field, compared to 27% of the NFL average last season. The Colts will probably be a relatively low pass volume team, but with how Pittman earns targets (26% share last season), that's not a big concern to me. There could be some growing pains, but this is the most talentedQB Pittman has ever played with, and it isn't close. 

The Bears decided early on this offseason they were going to build around Fields in earnest, and they added D.J. Moore to bolster his receiving corps and then took Tennessee tackle Darnell Wright 10th overall, the second lineman drafted. Fields already showed elite Fantasy upside last season, and while I wouldn't be surprised if he took a step back as a runner, he should be much better as a passer. I think he should be drafted as a top-five QB. 

There was some talk that the Seahawks might take a quarterback with one of their first-round picks, but they opted instead to give Smith a much-needed No. 3 option in the passing game in Jaxon Smith-Njigba, the first WR taken in the draft. I don't really think Smith-Njigba is likely to make much of an impact as a rookie, at least for Fantasy, but he could make life very difficult for defenses that already have their hands full with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. And Smith-Njigba could step in as the No. 2 option in 2024, as the Devonta Smith to Metcalf's A.J. Brown. For now, this definitely makes a Smith regression season less of a concern. 

Before the draft, I asked where the Bills would add playmaking, and it turns out to be the tight end position. It's sort of an awkward fit for Dalton Kincaid, given the presence of Dawson Knox, but I think there's room for both of them in this offense. It's unlikely either Knox or Kincaid is likely to be particularly relevant for Fantasy, but the Bills rightly recognized the need to add another playmaker, and Kincaid gives the Bills another option for the slot who provides a different look. I don't think the Bills are done, but this was a good start. 

There has to be a trade coming here. In fact, it's entirely possible this ends up being a blessing in disguise for Swift, whose inability to stay healthy has clearly soured the Lions coaching staff on him. But, in the immediate aftermath of the deal, there's no question Swift's value has taken a hit. Gibbs might just be a better version of the kind of player Swift has been, and now you're hoping he not only gets traded, but lands somewhere he can sustain his value. There's no guarantee of that. It's a disappointing outcome for a guy who looked like one of the best young running backs in Fantasy not too long ago. 

Poor Tyler Allgeier. The fifth-rounder emerged as one of the focal points for Atlanta's offense last season, rushing for 1,035 yards on 4.9 yards per carry, and he ranked ninth in rush yards over expected per carry, per NFL Next Gen Stats as a rookie. Which is to say, he really didn't do anything to lose his job. But he's going to. Allgeier should still get plenty of opportunities, but Robinson is going to dominate the passing downs and likely the work near the goal line, leaving Allgeier looking at a 10-carry role without many high-value touches. It's a tough break. 

I actually like the landing spot for Addison, but he's the only one I think has a path to immediate Fantasy relevance as a rookie. By dint of being first-round picks, all of Smith-Njigba, Johnston, and Flowers will be worth selecting in Fantasy drafts this season, and I never want to foreclose the possibility that one of those guys might just be so irrepressible that they dominate even in a seemingly less-than-ideal situation, a la the likes of A.J. Brown or Justin Jefferson , but I won't be betting on any of that trio to do it. If they go outside of the top 100, I'll bite; if not, I'm OK passing on this class. 

Addison is the one potential exception above, because I think he's now clearly the second best wide receiver on a high-volume pass offense. He'll slot in behind Justin Jefferson and likely T.J. Hockenson in the passing hierarchy, but I think Addison is going to push Osborn down in the pecking order. Osborn hasn't given us much reason to think he's much more than a replacement level receiver, and while Addison may need some time to adjust to the size and physicality of the NFL game, I'm betting it won't take long before he's usurped Osborn, and my rankings will certainly reflect that. 

The combination of Williams and Johnston is one that most NFL teams don't have the size or physicality to match up with, and it could lead to a lot of explosive plays with Justin Herbert 's big arm. But it sure feels like Johnston was drafted to displace Williams, not to complement him. It may not happen right away, but it could cut into Williams' opportunities in 2023, and the way his contract is structured, it shouldn't be too hard for the Chargers to get away from him if Johnston impresses as a rookie. Williams could find himself fighting for his place as the No. 2 option in this offense as the season goes on. 

It was a tough scene, with Levis stuck in the green room and ultimately going undrafted in the first round. Reports came out Thursday of a lingering toe injury that scared some teams off , but with Levis falling to (at least!) the second round, his chances of stepping into a starting role right away have taken a significant hit. That might not be the worst thing in the world in the long run – he's clearly a talented player with impressive physical tools, but he's also got a lot of room for improvement – but it likely takes Levis out of consideration for re-draft leagues, and makes him a pretty iffy bet in Dynasty leagues.