The Credit Suisse takeover means pain for one group | It’s bitcoin’s time to shine |

Hi John, here's what you need to know for March 21st in 3:13 minutes.

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Today's big stories

  1. The Swiss government brokered a banking mega-deal between its two biggest lenders
  2. Bitcoin has been gloating (and rallying) as bank fears rise – Read Now
  3. Churning financial markets have played to the strengths of the OG cryptocurrency

More Holes Than Swiss Cheese

More Holes Than Swiss Cheese

What’s Going On Here?

Extraordinary times call for extraordinary measures – and the weekend’s government-brokered deal between Swiss giants Credit Suisse and UBS was certainly out of the ordinary.

What Does This Mean?

A deal like this would have UBS shareholders licking their lips under normal circumstances: after all, it’s not every day you can snap up your biggest rival at a bargain-basement price. And the cozy bubble wrap of government guarantees – covering billions in potential losses and offering unlimited access to funds from the central bank – seriously sweetens the deal. But only time will tell whether Credit Suisse is really a bargain at $3 billion (tweet this). For one, UBS shareholders still don’t know if nasty surprises lurk within Credit Suisse’s balance sheet. And for another, stemming the flow of Credit Suisse’s clientele (and their money) might take more than just a new owner. No wonder, then, that UBS’s seesawing stock price suggests investors are between two minds.

Why Should I Care?

For markets: Capital structure.
Bond investors are freaking out about the Swiss mega-deal. See, bonds are normally repaid first when a firm goes belly-up – but this time around, private investors are taking some losses, ensuring the deal isn’t seen as a “bailout”. And in a highly unusual twist, the Swiss government has decided to wipe out some bond investors completely, while giving shareholders newly minted UBS shares. Sure, Swiss banks make their own rules, but this is bound to make anyone investing in European bank bonds break out in a cold sweat.

The bigger picture: Bazooka time.
The banking sector can normally count on a knight in shining armor to rescue it when trouble looms: last time Europe’s banks ran aground, the region’s central bank pulled out its so-called “big bazooka”, pumping billions of euros into the system and adopting a “whatever it takes” approach to restoring market confidence. That worked like a charm back then – and while banks aren’t as weak this time, a flash of that heavy weaponry would go some way to shoring up confidence.

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Analyst Take

Bitcoin Is Having A “Told-You-So” Moment

Bitcoin Is Having A “Told-You-So” Moment
Photo of Stéphane Renevier

Stéphane Renevier, Analyst

The cascade of banking worries that kicked off with the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank has rocked all kinds of financial assets

But not bitcoin: it just had its best week since January 2021. 

With antibank sentiment rising once again around the world, the OG crypto is taking this moment to gloat. 

After all, antibank notions are this asset’s very DNA. 

That’s today’s Insight: why you might want to own some bitcoin now, and why you might not want to get in too deep.

Read or listen to the Insight here

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A Bit Brighter

A Bit Brighter

What’s Going On Here?

Bitcoin's been shining as the global banking system comes under scrutiny, suggesting the cryptocurrency might finally have come of age.

What Does This Mean?

With bitcoin up more than 80% from last November's low, the king of cryptocurrencies seems to be marching to the beat of its own drum and side-stepping the financial mini-crisis. That alone is cause for celebration. See, for a long time regular investors looked at bitcoin the way mystified cavemen used to regard the sun – enticed by the growth it brought, confused about what made it rise, and worrying that they might get burned. That meant a lot of ink was spilled debating whether bitcoin was a kind of digital gold, an investment in blockchain technology, or something else entirely. But if bitcoin’s truly decoupled itself from regular assets like stocks and bonds, it's passed an important milestone – and whatever you label the OG cryptocurrency, that could win over plenty of fence-sitters.

Why Should I Care?

For you personally: Piece of the pie.
When the bigwigs at pension and endowment funds choose how to spread their billions, they pay close attention to how each asset class performs in different circumstances. And if cryptocurrencies like bitcoin keep plowing their own furrow, their diversification benefits could make them serious contenders when the big money’s being divvied up. Even a tiny piece of the nearly $200 trillion global asset allocation pie is an awful lot of buying power, and that’s worth bearing in mind when you’re designing your own portfolio.

The bigger picture: Work to do.
Cryptocurrencies were invented to defend folk against the ills of centralized banking systems, like – ahem – confidence crises. And although regulators will already be dreaming up ways to prevent future failures, the system will never be totally infallible. So with the present woes playing on investors’ minds, it's no wonder people are seeing bitcoin in a new light.

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🥳 Coming Up This Week…

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🌎 Three Ways Long-Term Investors Can Act On Climate Change: 12pm, March 21st
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👀 And After That…

📚 A Guide To Maximizing Your Tax Allowance: 5pm, April 3rd
🔮 Future of Finance: Waking Up To The Retail Investor (London): 6.30pm, April 12th
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🎉 Modern Investor Summit 2023: 12pm, December 5th and 6th

🎯 On Our Radar

  1. Lend me your ears. Putin’s earlobes have convinced some folk he’s using body doubles.
  2. Stickups that stood out. This man robbed banks to raise money for IVF treatment.
  3. Something smells fishy. So-called “sushi terrorism” has got Japanese diners all worked up.
  4. Passé passive income. YouTube hustle bros have had their day.
  5. Forget Le Cordon Bleu. Take a culinary masterclass on your laptop instead.
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