Northern powerhouses aim to shut south out of World Cup semi-finals

Each quarter-final pits a northern hemisphere group winner against a runner-up from the southern hemisphere. Could a historic lockout be made in France this weekend?

Wales v Argentina

Four Rugby World Cup quarter-finals, four massive north v south eliminators. Knockout rugby has frequently brought the best out of Wales under Warren Gatland and he will be stressing that the real hard work starts here. In two of the past three World Cups they have reached the semi-finals and the underlying trend has been similar: defend as if your lives depend on it, take your points when they are on offer and ignore perceived reputations. History is also in their favour. Argentina may, belatedly, have come alive in their final pool win over Japan but over the past decade the Pumas have beaten Wales only once in seven attempts. The key this time will be stopping Argentina at source, a job made slightly easier by the injury to their back-row talisman Pablo Matera. Wales will be without Taulupe Faletau, who suffered a broken arm against Georgia, but the Pumas are not the same scrummaging threat of old and Jac Morgan has been among the players of the tournament. While Argentina have the fleet-footed Mateo Carreras, Wales have the increasingly prolific Louis Rees-Zammit. Assuming Dan Biggar is fully fit, a gritty Welsh victory would be no surprise.

Stade de Marseille, 4pm BST (5pm CEST) Saturday 14 October

Ireland v New Zealand

Imagine, for a moment, Ireland had been wearing black jerseys in their pool games. The world’s No 1-ranked side, ruthless with ball in hand, unyielding defensively … they are developing the kind of aura that New Zealand historically possessed. That is not to say they are certainties to become world champions – as All Black fans can testify, top-level rugby doesn’t always pan out that way – but the quality they possesses is obvious. They also have the kind of travelling support that lifts any team entering a tournament’s crunch stages. On paper their record in the World Cup knockout stages is abysmal – they have never made the last four – but 17 Test wins in a row (one short of the men’s tier one world record) suggest they are now much less likely to crack under pressure. New Zealand? The way they slice and dice lesser opposition shows the individual talent they still possess and last summer’s 2-1 Test home series defeat needs avenging. Even so, it is going to require a significant step up physically to get on top of an Ireland team who will slow their ball down and mess with their rhythm. A little midfield chip or two over Bundee Aki’s head or a diagonal kick-pass to a flying Will Jordan might bear fruit, but Aki and the relentless Irish back row will keep coming. Andy Farrell’s side are narrow favourites for a reason.

Stade de France, 8pm BST (9pm CEST), Saturday 14 October

England v Fiji

Can England really lose to a side who were beaten by Portugal at the weekend? The answer is “yes” if they play as poorly they did against Samoa on Saturday. The disconnect between England’s individual ability and their stilted collective performances remains one of rugby’s biggest conundrums: talk about enigmas with few variations. That said, Steve Borthwick’s team remain unbeaten in France and are just 80 half-decent minutes away from a World Cup semi-final. Expect them to target the Fijian lineout, kick for territory and generally deny their opponents the chance to build sustained momentum. Fiji, for their part, need to rediscover the energy that proved too much for Australia and the tactical nous that helped to unpick England in the warm-up game between the sides at Twickenham. As Samoa showed, if England can be rushed – and not given the soft penalties which make it easier for them to march up the touchlines – the whole machine can start to malfunction. That said, England cannot possibly be as poor again – can they? – and their fitness makes them a tricky side to shake off in the final 20 minutes of tight games. A Pacific Island side in the semi-finals will happen some time within the next decade but, for now, England should still have the knowhow and experience to prevail.

Stade de Marseille, 4pm BST (5pm CEST), Sunday 15 October

France v South Africa

For those who don’t know their Antoine Dupont from their Ant and Dec, it might seem odd that one player’s return should be a massive deal in a 15-a-side sport. In France, though, the return of their captain to contact training ahead of the quarter-finals is huge. Dupont gives Les Bleus another dimension with his ability to pop up almost anywhere on the pitch, kick with both feet and tie in defenders. In a monumental tussle against the defending world champions, that could be decisive. Assuming, of course, he starts and is fully recovered from the facial fracture that required surgery following that fateful high challenge from Namibia’s Johan Deysel in the pool stages. If he goes down in a writhing heap under the first heavy challenge from a beefy Springbok, the story will take on a very different appearance. There is a case, consequently, for keeping Dupont on the bench and, if necessary, using him for the all-important last 20 minutes. Maxime Lucu and Matthieu Jalibert went well at half-back against Italy and are club partners at Bordeaux. Jalibert seems to be growing into this tournament and his passing vision is a particular strength. South Africa are clearly strong and well-organised but they will also have to cope with a fanatical home crowd. The goalkicking of Thomas Ramos and Melvyn Jaminet also gives the host nation a potential edge.

Stade de France, 8pm BST (9pm CEST) Sunday 15 October

Pool heroes

Anyone who watched Portugal v Fiji, Georgia v Wales, Uruguay v France or Samoa v England can tell you that this World Cup has been enhanced rather than diminished by some of the lower-ranked nations involved. From Portugal’s Nicolas Martins and his teammate Raffaele Storti to Georgia’s Beka Saghinadze and the bleach blond-haired Samoan scrum-half Jonathan Taumateine, there is no shortage of talent beyond the traditional elite. Which makes it all the more dispiriting that the proposed new Nations Championship, due to kick off in 2026, will have a top tier of 12 sides – excluding Samoa, Georgia, Portugal, Uruguay and others – with no prospect of promotion before 2030 at the earliest. Of course there is more to building lasting rugby strength than one biennial tournament (the Six Nations remains off limits for ambitious European sides) but here’s hoping Portugal’s enthralling win over Fiji was watched by every single one of rugby’s movers and shakers.

One to watch

Launching the new top-flight season in England on the same weekend as the World Cup quarter-finals makes life tough from a marketing perspective, particularly given the wider backdrop of clubs going bust and ongoing arguments about the funding of the second-tier Championship. As always, the players will be expected to rise above the background distractions and provide the kind of entertainment that fills grounds and sells digital subscriptions. The game urgently needs to promote itself better and, to its credit, Premiership Rugby is attempting to do so via a new fly-on-the-wall film being released this week. Mud, Sweat and Tears: Premiership Rugby will be released worldwide on Prime Video on Thursday 12 October.

Still want more?

Ireland seem to be loving the big stage at last after their emphatic win against Scotland, writes Jonathan Liew.

New Zealand are looking for revenge for recent defeats and should never be written off, warns Robert Kitson.

After struggling to get over the line, Fiji are turning their focus to England’s weaknesses in their quarter-final, reports Gerard Meagher.

Owen Farrell’s timed-out penalty felt like England’s performance against Samoa in a nutshell, according to Andy Bull.

And Raphaël Jucobin feels France may have a new poster boy in Louis Bielle-Biarrey.

Memory lane

Fiji will face England for the third time at a World Cup when they meet in the quarter-finals. Their first encounter came in the quarter-final playoffs in 1999 at Twickenham – with the Pacific islanders training in Slough. Here, captain Greg Smith referees an arm wrestle between Kolinio Sewabu and Waisale Serevi. England prevailed 45-24, and won again when the teams met in the opening match in 2015.

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