15/03/24View in Browser

A dangerous odyssey:
Should EU leaders restrict growth to curb inflation?

By Thomas Moller-Nielsen

European officials announced on two separate occasions this week that they are intentionally pursuing policies that will, at least in the short term, impede Europe’s economic growth.

At first glance, such measures would appear to constitute acts of self-sabotage. Why would the EU consciously enact policies that harm its own economy?

Yet, the officials assure us, there is method to this madness. Such policies, they say, are necessary to prevent a resurgence of Europe’s inflation crisis, which is finally abating after plaguing the European economy for much of the past two years.

The EU’s actions are arguably reminiscent of Odysseus’ conduct in one of the more famous episodes in Homer’s Odyssey: In figurative terms, the EU is tying itself to a mast of policies to avoid an economic siren song that promises stronger growth but will ultimately only deliver fatally high inflation.

The first such announcement was made on Monday (11 March), when the Eurogroup, the informal regular gathering of eurozone finance ministers, revealed that the EU’s stringent new fiscal rules mean that member states will have to cut government spending next year. 

“At the current juncture, fiscal stimulus would stimulate inflation more than growth [and] correspondingly higher financing costs for the governments,” European Commission Executive Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis told a press conference on Tuesday (12 March), following a question by Euractiv.

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Russian women examine an information poster with pictures of the candidates for Russian presidential elections during presidential elections in Moscow, Russia, 15 March 2024. The Federation Council has scheduled presidential elections for 17 March 2024. Voting will last three days, from 15 to 17 March. Four candidates registered by the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation are vying for the post of head of state: Leonid Slutsky, Nikolai Kharitonov, Vladislav Davankov, and Vladimir Putin. EPA-EFE/MAXIM SHIPENKOV

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The Roundup

The EU’s executive announced on Friday a series of deals and subsidised projects for the defence industry, in a bid to boost ammunition production and joint procurement to speed up deliveries to Ukraine.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Construction Minister Klara Geywitz voiced optimism on Friday that falling interest rates and new tax incentives will revitalise the country’s crisis-shaken construction sector and boost overall economic growth.

The EU is set to seal a highly sensitive and strategic deal worth up to €8 million with Egypt on Sunday, continuing its strategy of investing in the countries of origin or transit of migration flows.

A draft treaty to protect human rights, democracy, and the rule of law, agreed at the Council of Europe (CoE) on Thursday, leaves it up to countries to decide how to include the private sector in the development of artificial intelligence (AI).

Numerous complaints over mass pre-election emails sent by an EU lawmaker to Greek voters living abroad without their consent have caused political turmoil, with resignations and expulsion in the ruling conservative New Democracy party (EPP).

While specific EU climate targets are out of reach for Germany, its economy is well on track to meet the national target of cutting emissions by 65% by 2030.

French candidates topping the lists for the EU elections in June laid bare their differences on nuclear energy and the EU electricity market in the first televised debate of Public Sénat on Thursday.

Finland wants the European Union and member states to increase crisis management capacities to avoid getting blind-sided by future upheavals, emergency talks and potential cracks in the bloc’s unity, according to a non-paper seen by Euractiv.

For more policy news, don’t forget to check out this week’s Tech BriefEconomy Brief, and Agrifood Brief.

Look out for…

  • Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Egypt on Sunday, together with PMs of Italy, Greece, and Belgium, meets Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi.
  • Committee of Regions summit in Mons, Belgium, on Monday.
  • Commission Vice-President Margaritis Schinas receives EIB President Nadia Calvino on Monday.
  • Foreign Affairs Council on Monday.

Views are the author’s

[Edited by Zoran Radosavljevic]

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