Friedrich Merz’s decades-old fantasy of leading Germany is finally within his grasp.
That’s good news for the 69-year-old Christian Democrat; less so for the rest of Europe.
There’s a reason Merz failed for so long to break it into the top league of his party. It’s the same reason he was outmanoeuvred by Angela Merkel in the early 2000s when the two were vying for the leadership of the Christian Democrats (CDU), and again in 2018 by Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, and yet again in 2021 by Armin Laschet.
And it is the same reason Merz’s CDU, in a contest with the least-liked chancellor in the history of post-war Germany (aka Olaf Scholz), improved by a mere four percentage points over 2021 on Sunday.
The reason is that Merz has never really had what it takes.
Yes, the Christian Democrats won the election. Yes, Merz will, in all likelihood, become Germany’s next chancellor.
But let’s be honest: winning an election for the main opposition party has never been easier.
The German economy has been stagnating for five years and in recession for two; Germany’s marquee industry – the manufacture of automobiles – is in a deep crisis; unemployment is rising; and the current government completely failed to effectively deal with migration.
With a better standard-bearer, the party would have absolutely killed it. Instead, it garnered 28.5%, the second-worst result in the party’s history.
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